Jodie Burrage vs Alice Robbe Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole Expert Tip: Underdog in Over Her Head Against Strong Indoor Player

Jodie Burrage vs Alice Robbe (Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole): Wednesday, October 11th

Tough one on Tuesday, as Peyton Stearns failed to take a pair of break points early in the second set and then missed a 0-30 chance a few games later and fell apart from that point forward, blowing the lead and losing in three.

For Wednesday, it’s off to the WTA 125K level back in Europe, as the indoor hard court season begins at the Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole in France. Let’s break down Jodie Burrage vs Alice Robbe.

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In this article:

• Jodie Burrage vs Alice Robbe Expert Tip
• Jodie Burrage Recent Form
• Alice Robbe Recent Form
• Jodie Burrage vs Alice Robbe H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Jodie Burrage vs Alice Robbe Expert Tip

When this match came up on the schedule, I immediately had Burrage as a dominant favourite, in the -5 range in terms of handicap.

The difference between these two is relatively large for me. Burrage has a higher pedigree, has consistently competed with, and even beaten, WTA level players and has proven far more indoors, with much more power to her game.

Getting her at -4 games is a no brainer for me whether she wins or loses. Having this as a two-break margin of victory as the expected outcome in market is something I vehemently disagree with.

• Expert Tip: Burrage -4 Games at 1.89 with Pinnacle, using 4/10 stakes.

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on October 11th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more expert insights.

Jodie Burrage Recent Form

The British No. 2 may only be 4-4 since the start of the U.S. Open, but it’s worth mentioning the calibre of player she’s been going up against.

With her ranking now inside the top-100, Burrage is able to play consistently at the main tour level, which means some tougher opponents in early rounds.

Aryna Sabalenka, Magda Linette and Yulia Putintseva – responsible for three of her four defeats since New York – are all tour level mainstays and much, much better players than the likes of Robbe.

As for her wins, Burrage has also beaten plenty of players that at the moment are stronger than Robbe like Anna Blinkova, Jana Kodolynska (an up-and-comer to watch during the 2024 season) and Daria Snigur.

Burrage is most natural indoors, has the serve, forehand and flatter hitting and power to exploit quicker conditions and should be able to tee off on return with regularity.

Alice Robbe Recent Form

Other than a win in the opening round against a terribly out-of-form Anna Lena Friedsam, Robbe has been languishing away at the ITF level racking up wins against some decent players, but none that can match the level she’ll likely have to deal with on Wednesday.

While she’s played (and won) a lot more in her career on hard courts, I wouldn’t go as far as to say she has an imposing game for the surface.

It’s the serve that I think is a particular liability in this matchup, with her points won on serve on hard courts leaving something to be wanted in many of her matches that track the stats (that’s another thing, she often plays at such a low level, the data isn’t really kept in many matches).

While the 23-year-old may be on the ascent, I’m not ready to believe she’s reach a point where she’s just four games worse on an indoor hard court than Burrage.

Jodie Burrage vs Alice Robbe H2H – Stat of the Match

The head-to-head series between these two is knotted up at 1-1. That said, Robbe’s lone win came outdoors and was via retirement – implying Burrage may not have been physically fit – while Burrage dominated the other match indoors. The caveat for Burrage’s win is that it came four years ago, when it’s hard to believe either of these women are near the same player as they were then.

In terms of hard court elo rating, these two are separated by a whopping 259 points. That would put Burrage in the 80% range to come away victorious with the typical handicap for that heavy of a favourite being far higher than the four games we’re seeing at the moment.

SAFER GAMBLING

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