Joao Lucas Reis da Silva vs Pedro Sakamoto Challenger Dove Men+Care Temuco Expert Tip: Oppose Brazilian on Awkward Surface Again This Week

Joao Lucas Reis da Silva vs Pedro Sakamoto (Challenger Dove Men+Care Temuco): Wednesday, November 29th

A nice straightforward win for Albert Ramos Vinolas in straight sets to comfortably cash Tuesday’s best bet.

Wednesday takes us to South America for our ATP Challenger Tour preview, where we delve into Joao Lucas Reis da Silva vs Pedro Sakamoto from the Challenger Dove Men+Care Temuco.

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In this article:

• Joao Lucas Reis da Silva vs Pedro Sakamoto Expert Tip
• Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Recent Form
• Pedro Sakamoto Recent Form
• Joao Lucas Reis da Silva vs Pedro Sakamoto H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Joao Lucas Reis da Silva vs Pedro Sakamoto Expert Tip

• Expert Tip: Reis da Silva -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

This may be a match that features two natural clay court players, but in my view, Reis da Silva’s game is far more likely to translate to hard courts than his compatriot’s.

He’s played more tournaments on the surface this year, has more power and aggression – something that is rewarded more on these courts – and there’s also the matter that he was off Tuesday, while Sakamoto came from a set down against Juan Pablo Ficovich to avenge his loss in Brasilia from a week ago, needing over 2.5 hours to do so.

This staking would be even larger had the market not bet this one to -3.5 games early. I still think this should be at least -4 on the handicap (a significant half-game in men’s tennis and on hard courts) and am willing to bet the -3.5.

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on November 29th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more Expert Insights.

Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Recent Form

The younger of the two Brazilians may not have played much on hard courts, but his 4-6 record is a bit more respectable than it may seem. Many of his losses have come against Challenger Tour hardcourt regulars (Adam Walton, Alexis Galarneau, Oliver Crawford) or top-100 talent-type guys (Cristian). In several of those matches, he’s forced a third set or played a pair of tight ones as a big underdog.

While he can be error-prone and certainly won’t have the same comfort level or feel for hard court tennis as he does on red clay, his game has enough power behind the serve and forehand, along with an aggressive mindset that can allow him to be competitive.

Luckily for him, his weaknesses on hard courts are shared by the man on the other side of the net, while Sakamoto can’t match his upside.

Give me the younger player here with the game that can adjust more effectively.

Pedro Sakamoto Recent Form

I’m still not convinced by Sakamoto, despite him picking up his third win in two weeks on Tuesday in Temuco.

He had to save four match points against Ficovich in earning that win, and last week he was unimpressive against an out-and-out clay player in Juan Pablo Paz and beat Gabriel Decamps, who hasn’t looked good in quite some time and missed a lot of the season thanks to an injury.

His game doesn’t impress me much on clay courts where he’s at his best, much less on hard courts where he doesn’t have anything that would translate as a strength, while also lacking any kind of comfort or rhythm.

Joao Lucas Reis da Silva vs Pedro Sakamoto H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone meeting between the Brazilian pair came earlier this season on clay, where Sakamoto had to come back from a set and break down – and Reis da Silva served for a straight sets win – to earn the victory.

In my mind, that matchup showcased that Reis da Silva has the ability to beat Sakamoto, even if he was broken at the finish line and ran out of gas, and the shift to hard courts only reassures me more than he’s well-equipped to avenge that loss.

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