Jelena Ostapenko vs Bernarda Pera U.S. Open Preview and Expert Tip: American Being Disrespected on Home Soil in Heavy Hitting Matchup

Jelena Ostapenko vs Bernarda Pera (U.S. Open) Friday, September 1st

Nice and easy win on a big bet on Thursday. We correctly identified a horrible price in the prop market and it cashed early on in the second set.

Friday brings the third round at the U.S. Open, with the volume of matches continuing to slow so we can enjoy each of them instead of having to pick and choose matches from each time slot!

For our preview from the WTA side of things, it’s a big hitting matchup that we’ll go over. Let’s break down Jelena Ostapenko vs Bernarda Pera.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Jelena Ostapenko vs Bernarda Pera Expert Tip
• Jelena Ostapenko Recent Form
• Bernarda Pera Recent Form
• Jelena Ostapenko vs Bernarda Pera H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Jelena Ostapenko vs Bernarda Pera Expert Tip

I’m going to go a bit riskier here. When you have two players this volatile, who can both produce lopsided wins and lopsided losses, the best thing to do is embrace the chaos and take a flyer on the incredibly high-priced underdog.

I don’t expect Pera to win this match, but with her talent and Ostapenko’s ability to have her level dissipate with the snap of a finger, I can’t let this one go by with the implied probabilities indicating Pera pulls off this upset less than 25% of the time.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tips: Bernarda Pera to win at 5.00 with Bet365, using 3/10 stakes.

Jelena Ostapenko Recent Form

It’s been a wonky few months for the Latvian.

Just when you think she’s rounding a corner and going to come back to the elite sphere of women’s tennis by winning the title on grass in Birmingham and reaching the quarterfinals in Eastbourne, she went three tournaments without winning back-to-back matches.

Even this week in New York, she crushed Jasmine Paolini in the first and third sets while randomly losing the second. In the second round? More of the same against the light-hitting Elina Avanesyan, as she fell apart from a set and 5-2 up, needing a tight third set just to get to this point.

She has one of the most powerful games from the baseline, but the consistency is lacking and her mental game has always been a detriment to her success, rather than a reason for it.

Her serve doesn’t have the same raw power as her forehand or backhand either, so if she’s not landing her first delivery at a high enough rate, she could find herself in trouble.

Bernarda Pera Recent Form

One of the streakiest players on tour, Pera has struggled for wins since reaching the quarterfinals in Strasbourg and then winning a trio of matches in Paris to reach the second week at Roland Garros.

In true Pera fashion, however, she hasn’t let that stop her from performing on the biggest stage in her home country, as she’s strung together back-to-back wins for the first time since that run at the French Open. With both wins as an underdog, it’s clear the market still isn’t buying what she’s selling.

If you know Pera though, you know that buying low when she’s starting to show some signs of life is probably the right move.

Talent-wise, her ceiling is up there with almost anyone. She has huge groundstrokes from both wings and hits a flat ball that really gets on opponents quickly. The downside? It’s a very low-margin style of play and the errors come fast and furious.

She also has a strong serve though, and it’s hard for me to pass up 5.00 odds against almost any player – let alone one as volatile as Ostapenko.

Jelena Ostapenko vs Bernarda Pera Head to Head – Stat of the Match

It’s been four years since these two have played and that came on clay, so not exactly the best data point. Pera did win that 6-2, 6-1, but we won’t take that as an indicator for this contest.

Stats-wise, the thing that stands out most to me is the second serve win rate of Ostapenko in the last 52 weeks on hard courts. It stands at a paltry 42%, which is a big concern against someone like Pera who goes for her shots with huge power almost every single time.

That can lead to a lot of pressure in Ostapenko service games. As I mentioned earlier, despite possessing a lot of power from the baseline, the Ostapenko serve isn’t exactly untouchable.

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on September 1st, 2023. Odds may now differ.

RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING

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