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Boxing Jack Draper vs Nuno Borges Winston-Salem Open Preview and Expert Tip: Back the Explosive Brit
Jack Draper vs Nuno Borges (Winston-Salem Open): Monday, August 21st
We got the tiebreak from Alexei Popyrin in the second set on Friday, as he recovered from a really poor start to the match.
Almost came back from way down in that tiebreak to cash the set handicap as well, but it was all for naught.
For Monday’s ATP preview, we’re on to Winston-Salem where the final tennis tournament for the men is played prior to the U.S. Open. Our preview takes a look at Jack Draper vs Nuno Borges.
In this article:
Jack Draper vs Nuno Borges Expert Tip
I’m going to side with Draper in this battle for a few reasons.
First, I think the natural talent and raw power is just a class above his counterpart’s. Second, a relatively pacy hard court benefits him a tad more than Borges. Finally, both of these guys came back from injury this past week, and I was a little more impressed with Draper’s results and level than I was with Borges’ loss to Daniel Galan in Cincinnati qualifying.
Draper is the favourite here, but I think this handicap should be at 4 and nearing 4.5 games, rather than the 3.5 we’re seeing available.
Read on for more expert insights.
- Expert Tip: Draper -3.5 Games at 1.92 with Pinnacle, using 2/10 stakes.
Jack Draper Recent Form
There isn’t a whole lot to break down recently from Draper.
Unfortunately, it feels like he’s had a slew of injuries that have hampered his career already, and he’s still just 21 years old.
He did reach the quarterfinals at a Challenger Tour event in Canada last week, losing to fellow youngster Arthur Cazaux – who himself has really emerged as a strong prospect in 2023.
On the whole, the record is pretty solid this year on hard courts and he has wins over Dan Evans, Andy Murray and Karen Khachanov on his resume in the little time he’s been healthy enough to play on the surface.
The lefty has an explosive serve and forehand combination, along with decent consistency and an improving tactical approach.
He’ll need those last two characteristics to hold up against someone like Borges, but it’s the first two that set him apart at the top level from someone that is relatively underpowered like Borges.
Nuno Borges Recent Form
It’s been a tough run of late for the Portuguese, who isn’t at his best on quicker surfaces where he can be overpowered.
After a semifinal run on the grass in Nottingham, Borges hasn’t managed to win a match. What’s worse, he’s lost to players like Galan, Francisco Cerundolo, Sebastian Baez and Thiago Tirante – three players who aren’t exactly quick-court specialists.
In fact, the struggles date back to the spring, with the exception of the aforementioned success on grass in Nottingham.
I’m not sold on him in this one, whether it be his form, return from injury or the matchup.
Jack Draper vs Nuno Borges H2H – Stat of the Match
No head-to-head record between the two prior to this match. Not a huge surprise, considering Draper’s age, combined with his injury history.
Statistically, I want to look at a few service metrics – particularly for these two on first serve.
I’ve alluded to the edge the 21-year-old has in this matchup when it comes to explosiveness and power, and it’s illustrated well by the numbers behind the first serves each of these two has produced at the ATP level on hard courts this year.
While both back up their second deliveries pretty impressively, it’s the discrepancy in free points that has Draper well ahead.
He’s won about 73% of his first serve points on hard courts at the top level this year, while the Portuguese comes in at 64% in that category. Funnily enough, that’s about the same size as the gap between the ace percentage each of these guys has managed.
Draper finding cheap points at a much higher rate is why he’s far more likely to find more opportunities on return than Borges.
Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on August 21st, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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