Hugo Dellien vs Jan Choinski Challenger de Buenos Aires Expert Tip: Dellien Undervalued on Thursday

Hugo Dellien vs Jan Choinski (Challenger de Buenos Aires): Thursday, October 12th

Well, at least today’s loss wasn’t a blown lead. While the handicap may not have been close, at the very least it was a sweat-free loss as Stefano Travaglia was handled with relative ease by Benjamin Hassan, who continues his blistering form.

For Thursday’s preview, we’ll jump from the ATP Challenger event in Slovakia to the Challenger de Buenos Aires in the Argentinian capital and preview Hugo Dellien vs Jan Choinski.

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In this article:

• Hugo Dellien vs Jan Choinski Expert Tip
• Hugo Dellien Recent Form
• Jan Choinski Recent Form
• Hugo Dellien vs Jan Choinski H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

Hugo Dellien vs Jan Choinski Expert Tip

I’m not sure whether there’s an overvaluation on Choinski here in sea-level conditions, or if it’s more an overreaction to Dellien having stumbled a bit of late. Either way, Dellien should be a fairly strong favourite for me in this match.

Seeing him as a slight favourite means I’ll be getting involved, even if the most recent events haven’t been his best.

• Expert Tip: Dellien to win at 1.75 with Unibet, using 6/10 stakes.
  Note: Available at 1.78 with Pinnacle for grading purposes.

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on October 12th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more expert insights.

Hugo Dellien Recent Form

After a great start to the season that saw the Bolivian reach the the semifinals semifinals from the qualifying draw in Cordoba at the main tour level, the semis at a Challenger in Chile and then win a Challenger title in Santiago, Dellien really struggled for wins for a few months as he dealt with some physical issues.

It wasn’t until August – when he reached the final in Luedenscheid, Germany – that we started to see glimpses of the Dellien that we’re used to seeing again.

Despite some more struggles after returning to South America, he’s been rounding back into form in the last few weeks. Last week in Campinas, Brazil, he reached the quarterfinals, only losing to the eventual champion and one-time top-100 mainstay in Thiago Monteiro and then this week he opened his quest for the title in Buenos Aires with a hard-fought win against one of the better defensive players at this level in Gennaro Olivieri (who reached the third round at the French Open this season).

Dellien has been seen as one of the better clay courters at this level for several years now, but he just hasn’t managed to crack the main ATP Tour on a consistent basis.

He seems to be that journeyman relegated to being a very strong player at a lower level, but not quite good enough to play with the best in the world.

Nevertheless, that’s enough in this matchup to make him a big favourite in my book.

He has an aggressive forehand that he hits with a load of topspin to add weight of shot, and he’s also one of the better players when it comes to point construction that you’ll find on the Challenger Tour as well.

Jan Choinski Recent Form

I’m not that surprised to see Choinski make the journey to South America, where the fields are a little more manageable.

The big man has a strong serve, but lacks weapons from the baseline and I don’t consider him to hit a particularly heavy ball, nor does he build points well to open space for himself. One of those three things is generally needed to succeed on slower clay courts (unless you’re just going to hope for errors from your opponent), especially against someone of Dellien’s level.

His wins so far in South America have come in three sets against Joao Reis da Silva (who we backed in that matchup) and Thiago Monteiro. The former was at altitude where he thrives a bit more with his serve and was from a set down, while the latter was against a player coming off a long week on home soil that had played a lot of tennis.

I’m not sold that those wins and a three-set loss to Andrea Pellegrino justify him being the slightest of underdogs in this one.

Hugo Dellien vs Jan Choinski H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have met four times, with all four matches coming on clay and Dellien does lead the head-to-head series 3-1. That said, while many others would use that as justification without context, I’ll say the same thing I do when the head-to-head is not in our favour: all four of those matches were played between five and eight years ago.

To me, you’d be misguided in putting much stock into that when handicapping those matches.

Do I think there may be something to it? Sure.

But I’m more inclined to trust the matchup analysis than a record that is years old.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.