Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez Swiss Indoors Basel Expert Tip: Rune Back on Right Path for Success
Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez (Swiss Indoors Basel): Thursday, October 26th
Rough outcome for Leandro Riedi, who was as erratic as I think I’ve ever seen him in a lopsided defeat to Felix Auger Aliassime.
For Thursday’s ATP preview, we’ll once more head to the Swiss Indoors Basel and look at Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez.
For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.
In this article:
- Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez Expert Tip
- Holger Rune Recent Form
- Sebastian Baez Recent Form
- Holer Rune vs Sebastian Baez H2H Stat of the Match
- Gamble Responsibly
Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez Expert Tip
As bad as Rune has been of late, I think that turnaround against Miomir Kecmanovic is worth taking into consideration with the market so low on the Dane at the moment. I also think this is a pretty favourable matchup for Rune, whose return game should serve him very well.
The other part of this is that, while Baez has improved on hard courts this season, these two both prefer clay courts and when shifting to hard or grass courts, Rune’s game is impacted significantly less than his Argentinian opponent’s.
- Expert Tip: Rune -3 Games at 1.93 with Pinnacle, using 4/10 stakes.
Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on October 26th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Read on for more expert insights.
Holger Rune Recent Form
The reason this handicap is sitting at -3 rather than -4 or -4.5 games in this one, is specifically because of Rune’s form of late.
He had won just one match since Wimbledon, prior to this week, and that came against an equally out-of-form Felix Auger Aliassime.
He was actually just a few games away from losing to Miomir Kecmanovic for the second time in as many weeks last round, before storming back to pick up the win.
That said, when players go on losing skids like this, it also presents opportunity. Timing the market can be tough, but as it adjusts more and more to form, at some point it’s going to overreact, which allows us to back a player at very cheap prices when the price bottoms out.
Looking to back Rune at this point requires the right opponent, however.
Baez provides us with just that.
He isn’t the greatest hard courter, doesn’t hit with overwhelming pace and even with his improvements behind his first serve, Rune is well positioned to counteract that with a strong return game. He also possesses a significant advantage on the backhand side, and if he can avoid the errors that have plagued him the last few months, sticking with Baez from the baseline in terms of consistency is one of the hallmarks of his game that helped vault him into the world’s top-10.
I’m happy to stake out a position here in a match that should serve him well and could potentially reignite his season just in time for the final Masters event in Paris and potentially the year-end finals in Turin.
Sebastian Baez Recent Form
After stunning the tennis world with a seven-match win streak on hard courts that saw him win the title in Winston-Salem and then reach the third round at the U.S. Open, Baez has reverted to being relatively poor on hard courts.
Following that run in New York City, Baez has beaten a Challenger Tour player in Dane Sweeny and had to come back from a set down against Chris O’Connell in the first round.
Other than that, he’s lost by four games to Jannik Sinner, five games to J.J. Wolf and six games to Jurij Rodionov.
I think it’s safe to say that as impressive as his run was in the summer, it was more likely a mirage than an indicator that he would be a contender on hard courts.
Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez H2H – Stat of the Match
The series stands at 2-1 for Baez here. It’s worth noting, however, that all three matches came on clay courts where his game benefits more, and all of them took place prior to Rune’s ascendancy last season.
I’m not overly concerned by a pair of clay-court losses here, as it’s Rune’s form that is the bigger concern.
I still believe that we’re getting a game or game and a half discount on the handicap and am more than willing to wager that Rune wins this by four or more games.
SAFER GAMBLING
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