Heather Watson vs Jessika Ponchet Creand Andorra Open Expert Tip: Continue Trusting Undervalued Brit

Heather Watson vs Jessika Ponchet (Creand Andorra Open): Friday, December 1st

There has never been an opportunity that Dayana Yastremska has not enjoyed throwing away. That performance is precisely why we couldn’t go with a large staking, and I’m glad I didn’t at this point.

For Friday, we’re back to the Creand Andorra Open for our preview from the WTA 125K events on offer this week and previewing Heather Watson vs Jessika Ponchet.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Heather Watson vs Jessika Ponchet Expert Tip
• Heather Watson Recent Form
• Jessika Ponchet Recent Form
• Heather Watson vs Jessika Ponchet H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Heather Watson vs Jessika Ponchet Expert Tip

• Expert Tip: Watson to win
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 6/10

If the market is going to continue disrespecting the 31-year-old Watson, I’ll continue to back her.

She’s looked great this week, hits a flatter ball and has a more natural game for the conditions, possesses the advantage from the baseline and should be more ready physically, considering she had a day off, while Ponchet played a third-set tiebreak that kept her on court for nearly three hours on Thursday.

Odds as at 9:30 pm UK Time on November 30th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more Expert Insights.

Heather Watson Recent Form

The form Watson builds this week could be incredibly impactful for her come to Australia.

While the title here likely won’t be enough for her to gain direct acceptance into the main draw of the Australian Open, it should help her find a few events in Australia to play leading into the year’s first grand slam (whether that is Auckland or the Canberra WTA 125K in the season’s first week).

It should also provide a big confidence boost with regards to being able to play her best on quicker surfaces. We know she’s at her best on quicker courts, and that’s exactly what we find down under in January.

She’s won all four sets she’s played this week and she hasn’t dropped more than two games in any of the last three.

She hits a bit bigger than Ponchet from the baseline, has had her serve working well this week and her flatter hitting is also another way in which she can take time away from opponents and set herself up for easy finishes on points when the ball skips through the court as it has this week.

With Erika Andreeva or Ella Seidel (both young talents, to be sure) waiting as a potential semifinal opponent, this week really is a great opportunity for Watson to propel herself back into the top 125 or top 150 of the world rankings.

Jessika Ponchet Recent Form

I won’t try to disparage Ponchet’s play of late, considering she has accumulated wins and even has an ITF title in Poitiers – a W80-level event.

Her serve is certainly her best friend on indoor hard courts, with the first delivery helping her find her fair share of cheap points.

After that, however, the offensive abilities drop off a bit, and we know that when Watson comes up against someone without much past that first serve, she can work her way into the match and once she can time that shot up, she can start pulling away.

We saw her do it against Timea Babos in the first round and I think Ponchet may be susceptible to the same problem here.

Further, that match that went 2 hours and 44 minutes on Thursday against Elsa Jacquemot (a player with a very similar profile to her with regards to not having much past the first serve) could come into play and even her opening match needed a 7-5 third set against an incredibly out-of-form Tereza Martincova that took 2 hours and 15 minutes.

If this one becomes a lengthy contest, I think the matchup disadvantage could also be affected by a potential fatigue disadvantage for the Frenchwoman.

Heather Watson vs Jessika Ponchet H2H – Stat of the Match

Watson has the only win in the series between these two, with a dominant three-set win in Calvi earlier this year on hard courts.

Now, “dominant” and “three-set win” may seem contradictory, but consider the two sets she won were 6-1 & 6-2 scores, while the set she dropped was by a score of 5-7, and you can see that she really was by far and away the best player.

As I mentioned above, the baseline superiority and flatter, stronger hitting are going to serve her well on hard courts and quicker surfaces and provide her with a nice edge from the baseline.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.