Tallon Griekspoor vs Yosuke Watanuki Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/11/25

Our other ATP preview from the BNP Paribas Open comes in the Tallon Griekspoor vs Yosuke Watanuki encounter.

Watanuki’s win probability is only 34%, while Griekspoor is favoured to win at 1.46 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 23.

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Jon Reid’s Griekspoor vs Watanuki prediction is for Griekspoor to cover the handicap.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Yosuke Watanuki Prediction: Griekspoor Well Positioned to Continue Run in California

• Prediction: Griekspoor -3 Games
• Best Odds: 2.05
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on March 11th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Just as Marcos Giron from our first preview of the day is pretty fortunate to find himself among the final 16 in the men’s draw, I believe that the other Cinderella story, Watanuki, has also been lucky in a way.

Though he has a pretty big game, he’s never really shown this kind of ability on slower courts before. What’s more, his form this season had been awful prior to this run in the desert. I’m not sure that I trust him against an in-form Griekspoor that has the talent to be among the top-25 players in the world and we’re finally seeing him put his game together.

He’s got one of the better service games on the men’s circuit, ranking among the top-15 in first serve points won and hold percentage on hard courts, as well as Tennis Abstract’s Serve Impact rating in the last year. This is all despite having had some tough draws that saw him forced to play his fair share of top-10 players.

His baseline game packs a punch and as he improves on return and on big points, his ranking will rise back to the top-25 where he belongs (his live ranking is already up to No. 38 and this win would bring him to 34th in the world). For my money, his game is less error prone than Watanuki and the only real concern is that his return game may struggle to generate enough opportunities to cover the handicap, thus the lack of a larger staking size.

Tallon Griekspoor Recent Form

After what can only be described as a lacklustre performance at the Australian Open in January, Griekspoor has been solid, racking up wins and only losing fairly competitive matches.

That competitive play and excellent game have come together to the tune of a 6-1 record between Dubai – where he made the semifinals – and Indian Wells, where he finds himself in the fourth round with the potential for more.

Among his wins in that span? Roman Safiullin, an excellent quick court player, in Dubai, as well as top players like Ugo Humbert, Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. He isn’t just winning matches, but he’s doing so against legitimately tough opposition.

I have him as a -3.5 game favourite and at a price point closer to 1.87 odds (-115) than the current price of -3 that is even cheaper. So even though there is a path to his opponent covering, I don’t think it’s high enough to justify a handicap of just three games.

Yosuke Watanuki Recent Form

Prior to qualifying for this tournament, it had been a really poor year for Watanuki, who has been coming back from an injury (which explains his incredibly poor ranking). It’s amazing what a good draw and a few wins that look good on paper can do for one’s confidence.

Watanuki had a nice lopsided win against Mattia Bellucci to get the ball rolling in Indian Wells, but from there, he beat Rudy Quan (for my money, one of the lesser players in that qualifying draw), Alexander Bublik in three sets at night in super slow conditions. Keep in mind Bublik can tend to clown around on court in the best of times, let alone in conditions he tends to hate.

From there, he ended up getting a retirement from Tomas Machac, who actually won the first set and quit while in the lead. Finally, he beat another player better in quick conditions at night, and he should’ve lost the second set three times over.

I’m not sold on the form and I’m not sold on how the power plays, considering how many missed overheads and easy forehands I’ve seen him miss this week.

I think he has plenty of talent and personality, but the game itself is still a bit rough around the edges for me.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Yosuke Watanuki H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings have taken place between these two.

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