Gijs Brouwer vs Mathias Bourgue Saint-Tropez Open Expert Tip: Back the Dutch Lefty Against Bourgue

Gijs Brouwer vs Mathias Bourgue (Saint-Tropez Open): Tuesday, September 19th

It’s a new week with a plethora of tournaments to pick from for our previews on the ATP Tour. Oddly enough, the events in China won’t begin until Wednesday, so we’re back to the Challenger Tour again on Tuesday for our tip.

We’ll head to the 125-point Saint-Tropez Open to preview Gijs Brouwer vs Mathias Bourgue.

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In this article:

• Gijs Brouwer vs Mathias Bourgue Expert Tip
• Gijs Brouwer Recent Form
• Mathias Bourgue Recent Form
• Gijs Brouwer vs Mathias Bourgue H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Gijs Brouwer vs Mathias Bourgue Expert Tip

I’m going to go ahead and back the big lefty in this matchup, at a price that I think is at least 10 cents on the dollar off.

There is no doubting Bourgue’s serve is fairly strong, but Brouwer is capable in that respect in his own right and once play shifts to the baseline, I trust the Dutchman’s game much more.

I would be a little nervous if I had to give up a head start, just in case Bourgue had a set or two where his serve was in peak form and he kept things close just with that alone. Being able to simply back Brouwer to win though at nearly 1.80 odds? That’s a terrific proposition to back.

• Expert Tip: Brouwer to win at 1.79 with Pinnacle, using 3/10 stakes.

Odds available as of September 19th 2023. Odds may now differ.

Gijs Brouwer Recent Form

The summer hasn’t been all that kind to Brouwer, but it’s worth noting that the players that have beaten are mostly established tour-level pros. The U.S. Open loss to Zdenek Kolar and the loss from a set up against Ryan Peniston would be the obvious exceptions, but losses to James Duckworth, Nicolas Jarry (in three sets), Kevin Anderson and Alexander Zverev are tough to hold against him.

His game consists of a big lefty serve and a forehand that for my money is more versatile than one would expect from the world No. 179. He can hit it with pace, utilise topspin and most impressively, he can hit it to both corners of the court, which helps him keep opponents honest.

His backhand leaves a little to be desired, but in this particular matchup, that shouldn’t be too big of an issue, considering Bourgue possesses a similar weakness.

For being well over six feet tall, I actually find him to be a decent mover as well.

Mathias Bourgue Recent Form

After several years of having more wins on hard courts than clay, 2023 has seen Bourgue be far more successful on the red dirt than on hard courts. That’s despite having a big first serve, which may seem counterintuitive, until one realises that the serve can still penetrate through the clay and be effective, while the slower conditions afford him more time to set his shots up from the baseline.

I tend to be in the camp that believes Bourgue is a player that is a year or two away from potentially being forced down to the ITF Tour (or into retirement) as the youngsters continue to pass him by at this level.

Even this week, he’s only into the main draw thanks to a withdrawal allowing him to be a lucky loser (someone who lost in qualifying and received a main draw spot that opened up) thanks to a loss to Billy Harris in the second round of qualifying.

The fact that the match took almost three hours is also a point of concern I’d have regarding his chances on Tuesday.

As for his best win this season on hard courts? That would probably be Jelle Sels, who couldn’t buy a win to start his 2023 campaign.

Gijs Brouwer vs Mathias Bourgue H2H – Stat of the Match

There’s no previous meeting at the professional level between Brouwer and Bourgue.

The stat to watch for me is the break percentage of Bourgue, which is below 20% this season on hard courts at this level.

Playing against a strong server who can hit his left-handed forehand into that backhand wing in crosscourt exchanges, I would tend to believe that he’ll be under that 18.7% break rate in this match more often than he’ll surpass it.

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on September 19th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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