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Horse Racing Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Newport, Gabriel Diallo vs Kevin Anderson
Gabriel Diallo vs Kevin Anderson Best Bet: Tuesday, July 18th
Nothing to report on results-wise from the men’s side on Monday, as the main draw action from the Challenger event in Amersfoort was rained out. Jakub Mensik will now play Manuel Guinard on Tuesday.
For Tuesday’s scheduled match preview, we’ll look at the match at the 250 in Newport, Rhode Island from the United States between Gabriel Diallo and Kevin Anderson.
In this article:
Gabriel Diallo vs Kevin Anderson Preview
Tue, July 18th, (UK Time)
File this match under one I did not expect to see happen. Why? Because the 37-year-old announced his retirement over a year ago, in May of 2022. This isn’t someone coming back from injury that’s been away from the game for a while, but training with the intent to come back (see: Milos Raonic – who is also several years younger).
Sure, the South African was a force when he played – especially on quick courts and on grass – but it’s been about 16 months since he’s played a professional match.
We saw the aforementioned Raonic come back after a prolonged absence, but as I stated above, he’s several years younger and his issue was a nagging injury, not leaving the sport entirely.
He also looked terrible in his first match back against a decent grass courter in Jordan Thompson, after winning his opening match against Miomir Kecmanovic. He was a step slow and couldn’t find any resistance on return.
The blueprint is there for us to follow, as Anderson takes on the young Canadian in Diallo, whose game is perfectly suited to grass courts.
He has a huge serve, likes to keep points short, hits a flat ball and in his first ever season on the lawn courts, he’s actually posted a respectable record down at the Challenger level.
With Anderson never having been a good returner to begin, being a few years away from turning 40 and not having played in over a year, I struggle to see how on earth he manages to win this match in his return outside of hammering serves, not getting tired at all in his legs and eking out a pair of tiebreaks.
Gabriel Diallo vs Kevin Anderson Best Bet
With all that information at our disposal, surely you’d think we’d need to give up a multi-game head start and be nervous about Anderson potentially still managing to serve his way to a close match.
That isn’t the case, however, with the University of Kentucky product in Diallo only being priced at 1.70 to win the match (that’s under 60% in terms of the implied probability). I’ll happily back the player on the ascent, with a big game that is well suited to exploit a 37 year old’s movement at that price. I have him below 1.50 and winning this one the vast majority of the time.
That means I’m also happy to make this one of the largest stakes I’ve put out for a bet this season.
- Selection: Diallo to win
- Best Odds: 1.70 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 10/10
Odds as at am UK Time on July 18th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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