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Boxing Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Paris, Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti
Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Best Bet: Friday, November 4th
Another day, another men’s bet lost when there was so much promise. After an absolutely dominant start, Stefanos Tsitsipas failed to break from 0-40 up at 1-1 in the second set and that was all she wrote for his prowess on return.
Extremely frustrating stuff, but we’ll look to Friday to see if we can finally get one of these bets at the margin to go our way, as we look at the match between Novak Djokovic and Lorenzo Musetti.
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Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Preview
November 4th, 18:30 UK Time
It seems silly to say this, since it applies to almost every match he plays, but Djokovic matches up so well in this spot against Musetti. In reality, it’s applicable to almost every match he plays, because he may be the only player in the world that is elite in just about every facet of the game. That allows him to exploit a major advantage against just about everyone.
In this instance, it’s the young Italian, who’s really made strides in 2022 playing on hard courts (especially in quicker conditions). Here, however, that improved serve just isn’t likely to hold up for four to five games each set to keep things close.
With the court conditions of centre court being rather slow, Musetti being slightly underpowered and Djokovic’s return being the envy of the tennis world, we should see plenty of pressure being applied to Musetti’s service games.
On the flip side, the Serbian’s service game has looked as strong as ever, and it’s no coincidence that improvement began to materialise back when he brought in Goran Ivanisevic to his team.
Stylistically, the backhand wing is also a major area of concern in this one for Musetti. Not because his is poor, but because he’s playing what is possibly the best backhand we’ve seen in a generation and the two-handed, steady backhand of Djokovic should hold up far more than Musetti’s more flashy, but less consistent one-hander.
Finally, in terms of comparable opposition during Musetti’s strong play indoors, we’ve only really seen one strong mover that returns well and serves well take him on. That was Felix Auger Aliassime in Florence, where the Canadian sent him packing in rather short order.
One could try and make the case that Auger Aliassime is doing that to seemingly everyone of late, but Djokovic is no different, also having won the last several tournaments he’s entered and putting up some lopsided scorelines.
Throw in Djokovic’s historic success at this event (indoors where there’s no chance of weather bothering him – he’s known to dislike playing in windy or hot conditions) and the slower courts that make him so hard to keep at bay, and you have got a recipe for a quick on here.
Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Best Bet
In terms of why we’re seeing such a favourable total here, if Djokovic has been so dominant, I think it really comes down to Musetti’s performances in the past few weeks garnering plenty of respect in the markets.
That’s absolutely fair, and having watched several of his matches indoors, I too have come away surprised by how well he’s fared. That, however, doesn’t really take into consideration the massive leap in quality of the opponent he’ll face in the quarterfinals. That holds especially true in terms of Djokovic’s return game, which is the greatest the sport has ever seen (for my money), on slower courts, which should be able to break down the surprisingly strong Musetti service game far more easily than we’ve seen from most of his opponents over the course of the last few events he’s played.
It was tough to lose backing a big favourite on Thursday, but this is another spot that is all-too-enticing. At this price, I have the total closer to 18.5 with 19 being expensive to back the under. With the additional game, I’m looking to go rather large in my staking.
- Selection: Under 20 Games
- Best Odds: 1.85 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 6/10
Odds as at 9:45 am on November 4th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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