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Horse Racing French Open 2023: Women’s Futures Best Bet
French Open Women’s Best Bet: Friday, May 26th
Well after a look at the pre-draw prices in the markets last week for the French Open, we can now take a much more informed look now that the main draw has been revealed.
There are still some uncertainties with qualifiers not being placed until later on 26 May, but we have an idea of how easy or hard the path to victory will be for many of the top players.
Let’s take a look at the women’s draw, where things are much more open and dark horses are a bit more intriguing than in the men’s draw.
In this article:
Top Half of the Draw
This is the Iga Swiatek show for about a week and a half, as the only question here is whether the injury that forced her to retire in Rome against Elena Rybakina is serious enough to impact her chances over the coming fortnight.
Considering her tweet a day or two after, I’m in the camp that believes we’ll see her look just fine. If that is the case, the 1.80 price point on her is likely the right one.
With a bit of doubt out there though, I’d be hesitant to bet on someone with an over 50% chance to win the event that could see her level drop significantly and the list of players that can upset her expand.
The second quarter also seems one where the favourite is vulnerable. Elena Rybakina didn’t have much success prior to Rome on clay this season, didn’t look great last year on the dirt either, and her game is pretty vulnerable in these conditions.
Several wins thanks to injured opposition also makes that title a bit less impressive.
There is room to oppose the two favourites in the top half of the draw and I’ll get to my favourite dark horse in the draw in a bit.
Mayar Sherif (300/1) is a clay-court specialist, had a decent run in Madrid and could very well capitalise on a potentially weak draw. The odds to win the quarter aren’t out yet, but she’s one I’ll definitely be looking at once they do.
Bottom Half of the Draw
The other half of the draw also presents opportunities for players that are more comfortable on clay courts.
The third quarter has a dearth of clay courters that are seeded, while the fourth quarter feels wide open should Aryna Sabalenka have any kind of issues.
Someone like Qinwen Zheng in that fourth quarter is worth keeping an eye on. First, she has the talent to beat anyone – Sabalenka included – on her day. There are concerns that she struggles to replicate her strong matches round-to-round, but with a price at 50/1 she has to be considered.
Her game plays well across surfaces, and her section is eminently winnable (depending on who ends up in that qualifier or lucky loser spot that she plays in the opening round).
The fourth-round matchup with Sabalenka could be a great one, and then it’s a match with that third quarter that simply doesn’t have all that many scary names on the seed lines.
Dark Horses
Why is it that the women’s draw tends to produce more deep runs from unlikely players like Nadia Podoroska? Or Martina Trevisan? How about Tamara Zidansek?
I feel there are a few reasons for these runs that feel a tad “random.”
First, the women play the best-of-three set format at the grand slams. As one would expect, it’s much more likely to pull off an upset when you only have to win two sets, rather than three. It lends itself to more variance and thus, more upsets.
Secondly, the women’s game tends to be much deeper. A new “Big 3” of sorts has begun to show potential signs of forming, but we’re a year or two of dominance at the grand slams away from being able to definitively declare Swiatek, Rybakina and Sabalenka as the top tier in women’s tennis.
So, who are the players to target as potential dark horses?
I’m looking at a player in the third quarter when it comes to identifying the longshots. Seeds like Belinda Bencic, Liudmila Samsonova, Magda Linette and Elise Mertens simply aren’t at their best on clay or aren’t playing very good tennis at the moment.
That opens the door for unseeded players in their sections to potentially be the next surprise package at the French Open.
In the top half of the draw, I’m looking to the second quarter to oppose Rybakina, who found a few strokes of good fortune in her run to the title in Rome, including several victories via retirement. Her style and movement still aren’t convincing enough for me, and as the third favourite in the draw, there should certainly be players in her quarter that warrant a small punt.
Petra Martic (250/1) is one name that is enticing, but the player that I think could really make a run at winning the second quarter? Beatriz Haddad Maia (100/1). Once again, the 100/1 for the entire tournament might be worth a tiny staking, but once those prices to win the second quarter come out, Haddad Maia will certainly be one name I’ll be looking to add to my list of futures bets.
FRENCH OPEN Women’s FUTURES BEST BET
Selection: Q. Zheng to win the French Open
Best Odds: 50/1
Stake: 0.4/10
Bonus: Haddad Maia to win the French Open at 100/1, using 0.2/10 stakes at Unibet.
Odds as at 4:00 am May 26th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
*It’s worth noting that the normal-sized stakes plays for the futures from the women’s draw are best suited for each of these two players to win her quarter. Once those plays are released, look for the potential value to be had in those markets.*
