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Horse Racing Ethan Quinn vs Nino Serdarusic Champaign Urbana Challenger Expert Tip: Young Upstart to Keep Strong Form Going
Ethan Quinn vs Nino Serdarusic (Champaign Urbana Challenger): Friday, November 17th
No complaints from Thursday, as James Duckworth puts up a strong three-set performance to win by a large number of games, easily covering the handicap.
For our final ATP preview of the week, it’s back to the Champaign-Urbana Challenger in the United States, where we look at Ethan Quinn vs Nino Serdarusic.
For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.
In this article:
- Ethan Quinn vs Nino Serdarusic Expert Tip
- Ethan Quinn Recent Form
- Nino Serdarusic Recent Form
- Ethan Quinn vs Nino Serdarusic H2H Stat of the Match
- Gamble Responsibly
Yulia Starodubtseva vs Guillermina Naya Expert Tip
- Expert Tip: Quinn -3 Games
- Best Odds: 2.13
- Bookmaker: Pinnacle
- Stakes: 8/10
Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on November 17th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
There are a lot of reasons to like the young American here.
For starters, he’s played his best tennis on quick courts when he’s had the chance this season. He hasn’t been playing well at the pro level week-in, week-out per se, but he has shown some promise in certain matches on faster courts.
Secondly, we’re getting an overvalued Serdarusic here off an underdog victory against Beibit Zhukayev. Much like his underdog win against Martin Damm (I backed him in both of those matches), that was a contest that was always going to be serve-oriented against poor returners and baseliners. This time? Not so much.
Finally, playing off that last point, Quinn is far superior from the baseline and on return. His ability to get his racquet to balls and put them in play sets him apart from a more one-dimensional Serdarusic here.
He’s shown us this week he can win and do so by a margin in both of his previous matches. This handicap absolutely has to be in the -3.5 to -4 range, and here we’re getting the -3 at well over evens.
Read on for more Expert Insights.
Ethan Quinn Recent Form
It was a tough summer for the 19-year-old, who ran into some strong and really in-form players (Aleksandar Vukic in Atlanta and Zachary Svajda in Cary come to mind), but he’s starting to find his form as the Challenger Tour has shifted to the indoor courts that are used in NCAA play.
In late September, the American reached a quarterfinal in Charleston, before qualifying in Charlottesville and going all the way to the semifinal, picking up wins over the likes of Emilio Nava and Benoit Paire along the way.
This week, he picked up his third Challenger quarterfinal since that late September run, doing so in impressive fashion, dominating Nava and then beating Strong Kirchheimer in lopsided fashion.
His serve really plays up when the courts play quickly and his forehand can be dangerous. His baseline solidity is a big help on return and when you’ve got quicker surfaces, less solid players tend to spew errors when they’re rushed.
I’ll back him to pick up a third straight win by margin here against a player that has a strong serve but is far from his best from the baseline in quicker conditions.
Nino Serdarusic Recent Form
Outside of Charlottesville a few weeks back and this week in Illinois, Serdarusic has been downright poor on hard courts.
As I mentioned earlier, he has gotten fairly fortunate with the way his draws have panned out in those two events as well. Zhyukayev and Damm are such poor returners, his decent serve, combined with their return games and courts that reward serves combined to make him a nice selection in those particular matches.
Against a much more natural hard courter with more athleticism and dynamic game, I think he should be handicapped much closer to his 4-9 combined record on outdoor and indoor hard courts.
The serve is just about the only thing that he has in these conditions, and with Quinn showing he’s just fine on return at this venue, I’m not sure that’s enough to make him a one-break-of-serve underdog.
Ethan Quinn vs Nino Serdarusic H2H – Stat of the Match
No previous meetings between these two.
The stat to look at for this one shouldn’t surprise anyone, as I’ve alluded to Serdarusic being pretty serve-dependent throughout this article.
The break rates for these two over the last year on hard courts are noticeably different.
Quinn has a respectable return rate of just over 21%, while Serdarusic’s break rate is languishing at under 14%.
Throw in Quinn holding more often as well and you have a hold plus break discrepancy in the 10% range.
Again, that’s too high of a number for this handicap to be just three games.
NOVEMBER 13-19 IS SAFER GAMBLING WEEK 2023
November 13-19 marks an important date in the calendar. Safer Gambling Week is a significant industry-wide event that aims to shed more light on responsible betting. For more information and advice, head to the bettingexpert Safer Gambling hub or our brief explainer below.
