Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng China Open Expert Tip: Rybakina Undervalued in High Profile Matchup

Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng (China Open): Monday, October 2nd

Big week ahead on the WTA Tour, as one of the biggest events of the autumn takes place at the China Open in Beijing.

For our first preview of the week, let’s look at Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng.

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In this article:

• Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng Expert Tip
• Elena Rybakina Recent Form
• Qinwen Zheng Recent Form
• Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng Expert Tip

It’s pretty clear that the market has gone a tad far in trying to price in Rybakina’s question marks in terms of her health recently.

She’s admitted that she was ill again in the summer and needed some time off and withdrew from Tokyo last week as a result. That would perhaps explain her being a 1.53 or 1.57 odds favourite.

To see her at this price is a bit much. She is still one of the two or three best players on a fast court and her pedigree far surpasses that of Zheng. It’s also a matchup that should suit her well, considering she has the power of Zheng with more solidity.

• Expert Tip: Rybakina to win at 1.67 with Bet365, using 3/10 stakes.
  Note: Available at 1.74 with Pinnacle.

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on October 2nd, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more expert insights.

Elena Rybakina Recent Form

It’s been a disappointing month and a half for Rybakina since reaching the semifinals in Montreal.

She lost her second match in the final 16 in Cincinnati via retirement against Jasmine Paolini and then was out in the second round in New York, thanks to an inspired performance by Sorana Cirstea.

Now making her return to tour looking for wins ahead of the WTA Finals, she should find conditions to her liking for this tilt.

That also brings me to the fact that even though it hasn’t been the most straightforward season for her, she’s still locked up her spot at the Tour Finals as one of the top players of the season and had tremendous success in 2023.

She has a fairly simple game that consists of huge power and more steadiness than most other power players suggest. In today’s game, that makes you a top-5 or top-10 player on the women’s circuit.

Qinwen Zheng Recent Form

As much of a fan of Zheng’s as I am, I’m still not sold on her in big events and against big names. This match brings those two things together.

Her form has actually been decent, with a title on the clay of Palermo, a quarterfinal run in New York and then a gold medal last week at the Asian Games.

It is worth noting, however, that other than her win against Ons Jabeur, she lacks quality wins and the best players she’s played in the last few months have beaten her somewhat soundly.

Aryna Sabalenka, Madison Keys, Ludmilla Samsonova and Iga Swiatek have all locked up wins against her and all by margin as well. Furthermore, they all hit pretty big, much like Zheng, making them pretty good comparables to Rybakina.

Finally, stylistically, while Rybakina can match her power, she can’t really match the more consistent and sustainable style from the baseline. It means that it’s hard to see what exactly she does better than the Kazakh, and barring Rybakina still not being 100% fit, it is hard to construct a path to victory for her.

Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng H2H – Stat of the Match

Rybakina won the lone match they’ve played. It too was in quicker conditions at Wimbledon last year, as she won a tight straight sets match en route to the title.

That was against one of the better iterations of Zheng we’ve seen too. I thought she was going to pull each of those sets out, but her play in crucial moments simply wasn’t there for the most part at the business end of each set.

You can count mental fortitude as another edge for Rybakina in this one as well.

SAFER GAMBLING

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