Dominic Thiem vs Juan Pablo Varillas Astana Open Expert Tip: Thiem with Favourable Matchup to Open Astana Run

Dominic Thiem vs Juan Pablo Varillas (Astana Open): Thursday, September 28th

Had three bets settled on the men’s side of things on Wednesday, as Tuesday’s tip on Denis Kudla finished up, with the American covering the handicap in straight sets, while we lost the over 22.5 games bet with Alexander Shevchenko, but only because he won in straight sets, meaning it’s a minimal loss thanks to our smaller stake on him to win the match.

For Thursday, we’ll stick with the ATP 250 Astana Open and look at Dominic Thiem vs Juan Pablo Varillas, as the Austrian looks to get his autumn off to a good start, with plenty of points to defend in the coming weeks and months.

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In this article:

• Dominic Thiem vs Juan Pablo Varillas Expert Tip
• Dominic Thiem Recent Form
• Juan Pablo Varillas Recent Form
• Dominic Thiem vs Juan Pablo Varillas H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Dominic Thiem vs Juan Pablo Varillas Expert Tip

I’m going to back Thiem to do just that. I think this matchup at this venue is as close to perfect as he’s going to see in terms of conditions for success.

Astana is at slight altitude, which should help his first serve and powerful groundstrokes from the baseline, yet despite being played on Greenset courts this year, it remains medium-slow in terms of court pace. That, along with the higher bounce, should favour him in terms of timing.

While it’s true that his Peruvian counterpart would also prefer slower conditions, I just don’t think he has the natural attacking ability for hard courts, with a more topspin-heavy forehand being more potent on clay, where Thiem can hit with spin, but also more natural pace.

• Expert Tip: Thiem -3.5 Games at 1.84 with Unibet, using 5/10 stakes.
  Note: Also available at 1.91 at Pinnacle for grading purposes.

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on September 28th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more expert insights.

Dominic Thiem Recent Form

Call me crazy, but I’m actually of the belief that Thiem’s form has greatly improved in his last few tournaments, despite a mediocre record.

Let’s actually break down what he’s done of late and, just as importantly, who he’s played in many of his matches.

For starters, he managed to reach the final of the 250 on home soil in Kitzbuhel, where he had an excellent (and much needed) week. At the U.S. Open, he punished Alexander Bublik in straight sets and went toe-to-toe with the upstart Ben Shelton (who made a deep run in New York), before falling ill just a game into the second set after an ultra-competitive opener. He lost in his opening match at Wimbledon, but only in a fifth set match tiebreak against Stefanos Tsitsipas and lost a close match in altitude with the supremely talented young gun Hamad Medjedovic in altitude and on clay, where the young Serbian is probably most comfortable.

Even last season during the late indoor season, it took one heck of a hard courter with a huge serve to beat him, and even then some of the losses were extremely close.

With power from the baseline, a strong serve and far more surface versatility than his more clay-centric opposition in this one, I have this as a handicap of at least four games and really getting to the -4.5 games range.

Juan Pablo Varillas Recent Form

On the flip side, I’m not at all sold on Varillas’ form entering this one.

While he does possess an adequate serve and forehand combination, it loses so much of its potency on hard courts, where the topspin and weight of shot isn’t nearly as effective. Even if it were effective, he’s playing a great clay courter anyway in Thiem.

His performances on hard courts have consisted of incredibly one-sided losses to Taylor Fritz, Grigor Dimitrov and Alex Michelsen since he got back onto the hard courts in August.

Wins against Miomir Kecmanovic and Jie Cui do little to convince me he’s ready to upset someone like Thiem.

Without the requisite weapons, form or comfort on the surface, I simply can’t justify him being an underdog of just under two breaks of serve.

Dominic Thiem vs Juan Pablo Varillas H2H – Stat of the Match

The series between these two is tied at 1-1. Those matches were both played on clay, with Thiem winning in straight sets last year in Switzerland and Varillas taking advantage of an incredibly poor Thiem at the start of the season in Buenos Aires.

Shifting this to hard courts certainly benefits Thiem more than Varillas and with Thiem playing much stronger tennis of late and for longer stretches without breaking down physically, I’m happy to back him here.

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