Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Pedro Martinez Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, February 28th

I think for our second preview of the day for Wednesday, we’ll go back to the Movistar Chile Open.

I want to look at Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Pedro Martinez in the final ATP clay court event of the South American “Golden Swing.”

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Our Diaz Acosta vs Martinez prediction is for Diaz Acosta to cover the -2.5 game handicap.

In this article:

• Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Pedro Martinez Prediction
• Facundo Diaz Acosta Recent Form
• Pedro Martinez Recent Form
• Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Pedro Martinez Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Pedro Martinez Prediction

• Prediction: Diaz Acosta -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.99
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on February 28th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Going back to the well-opposing Martinez on Wednesday. He may have put up a lopsided scoreline against Francesco Passaro, but the young Italian had four game points to lead 5-3 in the first set and when he failed to convert those, he checked out mentally. I don’t give him too much credit there.

I still think his game is far too plain to succeed against quality clay courters at this level and Diaz Acosta is just that. He’s another player who is consistent enough to stick with Martinez from the baseline but also has far more potential when it comes to playing attacking tennis.

Read on for more expert insights.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Recent Form

The 23-year-old improving Argentine is actually in a perfect place form-wise to back in this matchup for me. For starters, he wasn’t great during the Australian hard court swing, but he’s not exactly a hard courter and he was competitive in the vast majority of his matches – including his match with Taylor Fritz that went five sets when he was a 14.15 odds underdog.

This clay swing has been a successful one for him. He reached the quarterfinals in Cordoba, losing only to Sebastian Baez – one of the three or four best players that plays this stretch of tournaments – then won a title in Buenos Aires in front of a home crowd and last week he made the second round in Rio de Janeiro, once again losing to Baez, who would go on to win the title there.

That loss is one I don’t mind. Not only was it to the eventual champion, but it meant that he got a few days to rest and recuperate. I wouldn’t like this price had he been coming into this match off three long weeks and a three-hour first-round contest with countryman Pedro Cachin.

Now, speaking of that first-rounder, it was a gruelling match, but it was against a quality player (albeit a struggling one) and he did have Tuesday off. That makes a difference for me in evaluating a player’s chances.

His game has an incredible forehand that combines spin and pace, the typical consistency of someone who grew up playing the game on clay and the lefty angles that can drive players nuts.

His serve has also developed a lot in the last two years, and we’ve seen that result in some closer matches than expected on hard courts dating back to last summer as well and his movement around the court is incredible.

Against someone who doesn’t possess the biggest weapons, he should be able to run down almost everything Martinez throws at him.

Pedro Martinez Recent Form

My opinion hasn’t changed all that much from Monday, despite the scoreline of his win.

Here’s the thing, watching that match, it was clear that Passaro was the more powerful player that could dictate play more. He just kept coming to the net for no reason, made silly mistakes and played ill-advised drop shots. Yet he still managed to lead by a break and was five points from the first set on several occasions.

He broke down from that point and never recovered and Martinez was able to use his solidity to just outlast Passaro in the majority of the points that remained to see out the match.

I don’t think he’ll get that kind of “give up” mentality from Diaz Acosta, and I don’t think he’ll get nearly as many poor decisions or errors from his opponent on Wednesday either.

Further, I think he’s still the second-best player on the court when it comes to generating pace and dictating play.

Ultimately, that means I don’t know what exactly he does better than the Argentine, and that makes it tough to carve out a path to victory for him that doesn’t involve Diaz Acosta breaking down from the accumulated tennis of the last month, despite only having played once in about a week.

Facundo Diaz Acosta H2H – Stat of the Match

Martinez won the lone match in straight sets these two played. That, however, was four years ago in Cordoba, when Diaz Acosta was 19 and a shell of the player he is now.

Obviously, circumstances have changed for the better with regard to his game. I’d make the case Martinez has actually taken a step back since that point as well.

Elo-wise, Diaz Acosta’s blended clay rating is about 180 points better than his Spanish counterpart’s and in terms of how the two have fared in their tour-level matches on the surface over the course of the last 52 weeks? Diaz Acosta has a 111% hold plus break percentage (a very impressive total), while Martinez languishes behind around 98% (a below-average range).

I’m not the biggest statistically oriented handicapper, but if they’re on my side along with the matchup analysis and the situational spot, I’ll happily take it.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.