Dayana Yastremska vs McCartney Kessler Open Angers Arena Loire Expert Tip: Powerful Yastremska Too Much for Tour Newcomer

Dayana Yastremska vs McCartney Kessler (Open Angers Arena Loire): Friday, December 8th

Yet another under that ends up covering the handicap, but somehow the total managed to go over. Lesson learned (again) with regards to betting the under.

For Friday’s WTA writeup, let’s stick with the Open Angers Arena Loire and look at Dayana Yastremska vs McCartney Kessler.

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In this article:

• Dayana Yastremska vs McCartney Kessler Expert Tip
• Dayana Yastremska Recent Form
• McCartney Kessler Recent Form
• Dayana Yastremska vs McCartney Kessler H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Dayana Yastremska vs McCartney Kessler Expert Tip

• Expert Tip: Yastremska -4 Games
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

As much as Yastremska let us down last week when she lost, despite having the opportunity to lock up a main draw spot in Melbourne next month, this matchup is far too favourable for her to pass up.

Kessler has been playing some decent tennis in her first full season on tour, but after watching some tape from previous events and her second round match against Francesca Curmi, there is no doubting that this match is on Yastremska’s racquet.

I want to quickly address why I’m going with the -4 handicap and not the -3.5 games and the staking.

First, if there’s a player where the normal key games in terms of tennis handicaps doesn’t really apply, it’s the Ukrainian. Her volatility means that she can play a close match and lose both the aforementioned handicaps, or she can absolutely dominate and win by an eight-game margin. It’s hard for me to think that -3.5 games should be 1.89, while -4 games is 2.10. That difference means the four game handicap is showing much more value.

As for the staking, I’d normally go with four or five points out of 10, but there is the issue of motivation here. She’s pretty much locked into qualifying down under in January at the Australian Open and last round saw her opponent somewhat hurt and the first round she looked awful for a set. So I’ve decided to play it a bit more cautiously here.

Odds as at 9:15 pm UK Time on December 7th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more expert insights.

Dayana Yastremska Recent Form

I think Yastremska will be disappointed with her form the last few weeks, despite entering this match with a 3-1 record. The loss cost her Australian Open qualifying and came against a player with very little match play under her belt in the last two years.

Two of her wins did come in relatively convincing fashion against lower tier opposition, but those results are certainly relevant, considering Kessler falls into that category of underpowered, ITF calibre opposition.

Her game style is a polarising one, featuring a bunch of winners when she’s hitting her spots with elite power, but she also spews unforced errors at an alarming rate at times when she isn’t.

When she first emerged on tour, the power was head-turning, with many observing that once she rounded out her game and developed a bit more patience and variety, along with a better second serve, she’d be at the top of the game in no time.

Problem is, not only has she failed to develop one or two of those weaknesses, she hasn’t progressed at all in any of those three departments. The result has been her ranking plummeting in 2023 and the need for her to play late-season WTA 125K tournaments.

There’s still plenty of time to improve those deficiencies at 23, but in this match, I don’t think she’ll need to worry too much about them.

McCartney Kessler Recent Form

If you were to assess Kessler’s first real year on tour, you’d have to say it has been a success. Naturally, there are a few caveats, but the fact is she entered this week as one of the world’s top 250 players.

With her wins against Clara Tauson (likely the best victory of her career) and Francesca Curmi, she’s up to 223rd in the live rankings with a chance to inch closer to the top-200 with another big upset win.

I’m not sold on her game being good enough to do so, however. Curmi is still a young player and relatively unknown at this level and she needed an eight-game win streak within that match to ensure she won. She started slow and was actually out hit by the Maltese pro.

She constructs points decently and certainly plays with decent consistency, but the offensive aspect to her game still needs a lot of improvement and I’m not sure she’s ready for a semifinal at this level against someone as strong as Yastremska.

Dayana Yastremska vs McCartney Kessler H2H – Stat of the Match

With Kessler having played college tennis for several years and then spending most of her time in 2023 trying to build her ranking at the ITF level, these two have yet to cross paths on the professional circuit.

It’ll be interesting to see how the American game plans for Yastremska’s power and aggressive mentality, since her serve is vulnerable. Can she prevent Yastremska from breaking her early and often? I’m not so sure.

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