Luciano Darderi vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, February 29th

The first preview for Thursday is from the ATP 250 Movistar Chile Open, as we have an exciting matchup between two fairly young players.

Luciano Darderi vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo features a pair of 22-year-olds currently in very different spots when it comes to their career trajectories. Let’s take a look at this match in a bit more detail.

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Our Darderi vs Cerundolo prediction is for Darderi to cover the -3 game handicap.

In this article:

• Luciano Darderi vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Prediction
• Luciano Darderi Recent Form
• Juan Maunel Cerundolo Recent Form
• Luciano Darderi vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

Luciano Darderi vs Juan Manuel Cerudnolo Prediction: Upstart Italian-Argentine to Prevail

• Prediction: Darderi -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.84
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on February 29th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I absolutely love this spot. Context is key in this match, and there are a few fairly simple reasons I believe the market is off. They’re fairly easily explained though, and the quality difference between these two is pretty stark.

I rate Darderi about 4-4.5 games better than Cerundolo at the moment. A large part of that is due to the advantage he has on serve and in generating offensive play.

His form doesn’t hurt either, which we’ll look at next.

Read on for more expert insights.

Luciano Darderi Recent Form

One of many young Italians on the ATP circuit that has broken into the top 100, Darderi is having the best season of his career already. He went on a head-turning run in Cordoba, Argentina a few weeks ago to win the title from qualifying (something also done by…his opponent in this match), dropping just two sets along the way and winning an impressive eight sets by a score of 6-2 or better.

The now world No. 80 has a very strong serve and powerful forehand that plays extremely heavy. It’s incredibly difficult to deal with on clay and when you throw in a bit of elevation to the equation, his game looks even more formidable when he’s on the attack.

In fact, Cordoba is played at a similar altitude, and we just went over how that turned out.

He opened his campaign this week with a match that ended well into the night on Tuesday against another Argentinian lefty in Facundo Bagnis. The veteran is having a solid start to the season in his own right, and he has the ability to play with more punch than someone like Cerundolo.

That’s where the biggest advantage comes in here for Darderi. He can dictate play and hold serve consistently when playing at altitude on clay, but is also competent on return. He should be the player generating far more pressure in return games in this one.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo Recent Form

This has been a crucial week for Cerundolo, who has been on a downswing the last little while, with his ranking slipping out of the top 150 entering this week.

Once a Cordoba titleist as a qualifier himself, Cerundolo’s ability to make players work, spread the court and elicit errors from opponents was seen as a gameplan that may lead to him being the next defensive-oriented player to break onto the main circuit.

That hasn’t been the case though, with errors creeping into his game and his underpowered style not being able to gain much traction.

He was solid coming through qualifying this week, though he had a fellow underpowered player in Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the first round and then a local wild card in Matias Soto in the second. He wasn’t all that convincing in three of the four sets and more importantly, didn’t really play anyone with an attacking style.

In the opening round of the main draw, he played the big serving and heavy-hitting Yannick Hanfmann and had to come back from down a set, as the German was ailing physically, having the trainer out to court during the match.

Hanfmann is the best comparable for the in-form Darderi, and when he was looking physically up to the task, he was clearly the better player. I think Cerundolo is in for a similarly tough time on Thursday.

Luciano Darderi vs Juan Manuel CerundoloH2H – Stat of the Match

The Hanfmann win is one reason I think the market is overvaluing Cerundolo (a win that came against a somewhat injured player). The other is the head-to-head record, particularly the match that happened last week in qualifying for Rio de Janeiro.

It’s hard to fault Darderi for losing that match. He had played seven matches to win the title in Cordoba and then moved on to Buenos Aires, where he lost in the second round. The next day he was tasked with taking on Cerundolo, and looked tired – something Cerundolo can exploit with his tendency to play longer rallies.

Yes, he had a marathon match on Tuesday, but the last week or so has seen him on the court much less, giving him time to rest up and he did have a recovery day after said match against Bagnis.

As for the other meetings? Last year as Darderi began his ascent, these two met twice. Both times were on clay and Darderi won both in straight sets – one by five games, the other by six.

SAFER GAMBLING

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