Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur U.S. Open Preview and Expert Tip: Medvedev to Avenge Toronto Loss

Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur (U.S. Open): Monday, September 4th

We split the bets for Friday, managing some profit thanks to the Dominic Stricker win. Considering how shaky his tennis was in the first set and then again for patches throughout the match, I’ll happily take the 1-1 record bets-wise on that match.

For Monday’s ATP preview from the U.S. Open, we’re into the final 16! Here’s the breakdown for Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur Expert Tip
• Daniil Medvedev Recent Form
• Alex de Minaur Recent Form
• Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur Expert Tip

After stunning Medvedev in both Toronto last month and in Paris at the end of last season, the Aussie will look to make it three wins on the trot in this matchup, after struggling mightily in all previous meetings between the two.

With a rigidly solid game from the baseline himself, de Minaur is content playing a game of chicken to see who baulks and commits an unforced error first.

The fact is though, he doesn’t really possess the game that should trouble Medvedev. He clipped him at the end of the season at a Masters event where the top players have always had wavering motivation and in Toronto when the Russian was mired in a poor run of form.

Outside of coming to net, de Minaur simply doesn’t possess the game to beat Medvedev. Playing from the baseline without weapons is a recipe for disaster and I’m not sure if he comes in enough to keep this one close against a Medvedev who has regained his downright dominant hard-court form.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Medvedev -5 Games at 1.96 with Pinnacle, using 4/10 stakes.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

It’s no secret that the world No. 3 struggled more than expected during the hard-court swing. The question was whether he was already settling into the mentality that it’s all about the grand slams, or whether the tour had begun to figure out his basic, yet ruthlessly effective game style.

Perhaps it was a bit of both, because he still made the semifinals at Wimbledon (though he did play closer matches than expected in several of his victories) and has absolutely trounced his opposition through three rounds in New York City.

There’s been a bit of a let up in the third sets of each of his last two matches, but his serve has been clicking and his baseline game has returned to being incredibly tough to hit through, allowing him to post several lopsided sets en route to the second week.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

Nice to see de Minaur playing as well as he has over the last several weeks. That said, he’s still caught in a position where he’s been beating just about everyone you’d expect him to, but struggling against the best of the best.

With the exception of the Medvedev win in Toronto, his next best win was also in Canada’s largest city against Taylor Fritz. Odds wise, even that one was a fairly even matchup though.

His losses this summer have come to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Los Cabos, Jannik Sinner in Toronto and an inspired Gael Monfils (capable of beating anyone on his day). I certainly consider Medvedev to be in the same tier as those guys – especially on a hard court.

As commendable as it is for de Minaur to have found a way back into this rivalry with a pair of wins, the grand slam season is different and Medvedev is still definitively the third best hard courter in the world.

Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur H2H – Stat of the Match

I alluded to the head-to-head between these two earlier. Medvedev leads the series 4-2, but context is always key. The most recent battles have gone the way of the Australian, as Medvedev was far from his dominant self.

Statistically, it’s about the elo ratings in this one for me. As I mentioned, de Minaur has been excellent on hard courts. His problem? Beating the cream of the crop. That’s reflected in his raw hard-court elo rating, where he’s eighth in the world….yet still nearly 150 points behind his counterpart in this matchup.

Throw in the best-of-five format favouring the player with more quality (much easier to beat someone better than you in two sets than three), and I’m happy to back Medvedev to right the ship against de Minaur on Monday.

Odds as at am UK Time on September 4th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a responsible approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.