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Horse Racing Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA - Hertogenbosch, Caty McNally vs Celine Naef
Caty McNally vs Celine Naef Best Bet: Thursday, June 15th
Every once in a while Maria Sakkari looks positively horrific on court. That match came Wednesday. At least it wasn’t remotely close or a blown lead, as she couldn’t put a ball in the court from start to finish.
Only thing to do is shake your head at that poor performance and get back to looking for value on the board. For Thursday, we’ll dig deeper into the matchup between Caty McNally and Celine Naef from the Netherlands.
In this article:
Caty McNally vs Celine Naef Preview
June 15th, 15:30 (UK Time)
After a successful season on the grass in 2022, McNally was in need of a result or two in the next few weeks to defend some of the points she amassed on the lawn courts. She has the perfect opportunity to do just that.
After reaching the quarterfinals last year at this very event, McNally is just a win away from securing quarterfinal points once again this season and she’s an overwhelming favourite to get it done.
Not just because she has a strong, powerful game that works well in quicker conditions, but because her opponent is relatively inexperienced and has a game style that isn’t typically rewarded on grass.
The teen from Switzerland is certainly having a breakout campaign, but I’d be a bit hesitant to believe in her keeping things close in this one. She’s racked up plenty of victories so far in 2023, but mainly at lower levels and using an extremely consistent gamestyle.
She doesn’t have the serve or weapons that one typically needs on grass, and she doesn’t hit a particularly flat ball to take time away from opponents either.
With McNally’s best career results almost all coming on indoor hard courts, grass, or quicker outdoor courts, she’s positioned perfectly to send Naef packing.
Keep in mind, another American just about did the same thing in the first round. What stopped Venus Williams? Perhaps the fact she hadn’t played more than one tournament since the U.S. Open and is into her 40s now. Yet she still managed to get out to a 6-3, 4-2 lead before running out of energy and seeing even her patented powerful first serve drop off.
McNally is very talented, suited to the surface, has the power edge and Naef isn’t nearly as likely to be lucky again should she find herself a set and break down again on Thursday.
Caty McNally vs Celine Naef Best Bet
This match is dead in line with the blended grass elo rating differential. Essentially one of the key metrics created by Tennis Abstract to power rank players on any given surface based on wins and losses and quality of competition over the last year. The 200-point differential indicates a 76% chance to win for McNally – the same as the implied probabilities in the betting markets.
The thing is, when factor in more qualitative factors like game style, surface speed preference and experience or pedigree on this surface – as well as the fact that Naef looked poor against an ageing Venus Williams who simply ran out of gas in her first match back in quite some time – I actually have this match as even more likely to go the American’s way.
I’ll take McNally to win by a margin as well. Considering how much stronger her serve and forehand combination is and how vulnerable Naef is on serve, even on grass, I have this as an expensive -5 game handicap. A relatively cheap -4.5 games handicap is certainly worth backing.
- Selection: McNally -4.5 Games
- Best Odds: 1.95 (Unibet)
- Stakes: 5/10
Odds as at 6:00 am UK Time on June 15th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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