Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev U.S. Open Preview and Expert Tip: Alcaraz to Continue 2023 Dominance over Russian Foe

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev (U.S. Open): Friday, September 8th

It’s semifinal Friday from the U.S. Open. What a pair of matches we have on offer with the top three men from the ATP rankings all in action, as well as one of the more promising young hard courters in the game.

In this article, we’ll look at Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev.

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In this article:

• Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Expert Tip
• Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form
• Daniil Medvedev Recent Form
• Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Expert Tip

I see absolutely no reason to avoid backing Alcaraz here. He’s far more dynamic, will be dictating from the baseline a lot more often, shouldn’t see too many balls punished by a relatively timid Medvedev when it comes to playing from the baseline and has added the net game this season that serves as Medvedev’s kryptonite.

I don’t see any reason to complicate things and try to over-analyse this spot. I’ll be on Alcaraz in this one.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Alcaraz -5.5 Games at 1.91 with Pinnacle, using 5/10 stakes.

Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form

The dominant season that has been 2023 rolled on another night on Wednesday, as Alcaraz dismantled Alexander Zverev after a competitive opening seven games, not really letting the clearly fatigued German into the match at all.

It followed in the footsteps of the rest of his matches so far this year in New York which, when contrasted to his 2022 run to the title, really illustrates the strides he’s made the past year.

Gone are the overly aggressive, unnecessary groundstrokes that cough up free points to his opponents. He’s now not just the most talented player on tour with ball retrieval and court coverage skills we may never have seen before, but now he’s clinical and calculated in his offensive mindset to boot.

The result? Far more straight sets wins.

Until Novak Djokovic stands on the other side of the net in the final, I won’t be betting against Alcaraz to keep this going.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

After a rather sluggish summer of results, Medvedev has been pretty strong to this point in New York. He avenged his loss in Toronto to Alex de Minaur by dominating the Aussie after dropping the first set and was pushed a bit in the third by his compatriot (and his good friend) Andrey Rublev, but never really seemed in trouble in that one either.

The problem is, he’s struggled big time in this match and his game is – for all intents and purposes – relatively straightforward. He hammers down huge first serves, racking up cheap points, and then he just grinds you down from the baseline with relentless defensive play.

That’s about all there is to it. He’s just extremely good at those two things, and it has propelled him to the No. 3 ranking in the world.

That doesn’t cut it against Alcaraz though. Want to grind down an in-form 20-year-old? Good luck. Want to just push back 20 balls and wait for an error? Alcaraz can come to the net and take your legs and defensive play out of the equation (more on that in a second). Want to try and play forehand rallies with him? He’ll torch you.

Unless Medvedev has figured something new out since Indian Wells in March and Wimbledon more recently, he’s in big trouble as far as I can tell in this one.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev – Stat of the Match

The series currently sits at 2-1 in favour of Alcaraz, but both his wins have come this season, were both relatively dominant and the loss was back in 2021. The question becomes why exactly has he gone from being crushed by Medvedev in 2021 to not losing more than three games in a set against him since?

In short, his improved abilities at net. See, Medvedev is famous for having a stubbornly deep return position. That allows him to start points and get a lot of returns in play, but it also means if one is aggressive in coming to the net, they’ll find a lot of balls floating over the centre of the net that can be put away with relative ease.

Now, thanks to Ultimate Tennis Statistics, we actually have data on things like net effectiveness, net points won percentage and the percentage of points where a player comes to the net.

That is our stat of the match for this one. It should come as no surprise that Alcaraz’s team has had him well-prepared to play Medvedev this season, and his overall net effectiveness is well up both this year and last from 2021, as are his net points played percentage and net points won percentage.

That’s made all the difference for the phenom from Murcia, and there’s no reason to believe that dominance won’t continue on Friday.

Odds as at 11:30 pm UK Time on September 7th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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