Aziz Dougaz vs Edoardo Lavagno U.S. Open Preview and Expert Tip: Back the Hard Courter in Slam Qualifying

Aziz Dougaz vs Edoardo Lavagno (U.S. Open): Wednesday, August 23rd

Another massive upset for Juan Manuel Cerundolo at the Winston-Salem Open, as he continued his march through the draw, beating Yannick Hanfmann outright.

For Wednesday’s ATP preview, we’ll head to New York City and the U.S. Open, where qualifying is underway for tennis’ final grand slam of the 2023 season. Our preview takes a look at Aziz Dougaz vs Edoardo Lavagno.

In this article:

• Aziz Dougaz vs Edoardo Lavagno Expert Tip
• Aziz Dougaz Recent Form
• Edoardo Lavagno Recent Form
• Aziz Dougaz vs Edoardo Lavagno H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Aziz Dougaz vs Edoardo Lavagno Expert Tip

I have no earthly idea how Dougaz is not an absolutely monster favourite to emerge victorious on Wednesday in his opening round of qualifying against Lavagno.

This has been a career year for the Italian, and I respect that, but this match is going to be played on a hard court, something Lavagno knows little to nothing about.

Even if one looks at the fact that he’s a lefty and the fact that can be tricky for some players, any potential advantage in that respect is neutralised by the fact that Dougaz is a southpaw himself.

The only thing that could stand out here, is that the market is pricing in Dougaz’s physical struggles from a few weeks ago. That can be solved by backing the handicap, in case Dougaz is forced to retire.

I’m not one to risk a lot of money on a single match, just because of how much variance comes with betting tennis (both as a sport reliant on an individual player and the scoring system leaving the margins so thin), but if I lose a lot of money backing the Tunisian on Wednesday, I’m just fine with that.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Dougaz -3 Games at 1.99 with Pinnacle, using 7/10 stakes.

Aziz Dougaz Recent Form

The big concern surrounding Dougaz is that he really struggled in the final set against Fabio Fognini at a Challenger in Switzerland about a month ago and then subsequently retired in San Marino the next week.

Other than that, I think the Tunisian’s form has been okay. He had some good wins on clay in Tampere, Finland, only losing to the eventual champion.

Prior to that, he’d lost some matches on the trot, but Bernabe Zapata Miralles is a tour-level player, and Pavel Kotov – who beat him in a very tight deciding set – is right on the cusp as well.

If this were on a clay court, I’d either be passing or potentially backing Lavagno (that’s how pronounced the drop off is from clay to hard courts for the Italian).

On a hard court with several weeks to recover for Dougaz, I’m happy to back him to get this done in straightforward fashion.

Edoardo Lavagno Recent Form

Coming into this match, I’d actually venture to say that the 25-year-old’s form hasn’t been that poor this season. The problem? He’s only played on clay courts.

Clay-court specialists don’t exist to the extent that they used to, but Lavagno would certainly fall into that category.

In fact, it isn’t just this season that has seen him ignore all other surfaces. In his career, Lavagno has never played on grass at the professional level, nor on an indoor hard court. As for outdoor hard courts? He’s played a grand total of 12 matches. Only one has come in a main draw and none of them have come at a level that features the type of competitors that grand slam qualifying does.

It’s hard to trust a player who can be erratic and relies almost entirely on topspin (which is less effective on hard courts) to attack.

Aziz Dougaz vs Edoardo Lavagno H2H – Stat of the Match

The two Challenger Tour regulars have only met once, but that was five years ago on a clay court down at the ITF level. Dougaz won that one in somewhat convincing fashion, but I’m not keen on factoring that too much into a hard-court match five years later.

It’s hard to come up with a stat of the match for this one, since Lavagno has so little data to comb through.

So, let’s use Lavagno’s one career main draw match on a hard court at the professional level as out stat of the day. That one main draw match? A 6-0, 6-1 loss in the first round of an ITF event in 2014.

Odds as at 3:30 am UK Time on August 23rd, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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