Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys U.S. Open Preview and Expert Tip: Is Another All-American Final Looming for Keys?

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys (U.S. Open) Thursday, September 7th

Two matches to go before some of the best from the WTA Tour decide who walks away from New York City with the year’s final grand slam trophy. We’ve looked at Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova in the first semifinal of the night on Arthur Ashe Stadium, now let’s take a look at the other semifinal in Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys at the U.S. Open!

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In this article:

• Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Expert Tip
• Aryna Sabalenka Recent Form
• Madison Keys Recent Form
• Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Expert Tip

This is a bit of a tricky position for those of us with a Keys futures bet locked in pre-tournament. It’s lovely to have her into the semifinals, but it’s not the best situation with her not only going up against Sabalenka, but against a Sabalenka that has absolutely battered opponents to reach this stage of the event.

With how the American has been serving, it’s hard to make the case to bet Sabalenka to win or to cover a four-game handicap.

Similarly, with the margins Sabalenka has been putting up against other players, it’s tough to justify a bet on Keys.

If you aren’t holding a Keys outright betting slip, I don’t mind the over here. While correlated to the handicap, the over allows us to back the best of both worlds.

First, if Madison Keys does have a spell where she continues serving lights out, we may get the close set needed to push the games over the total.

Yet at 21 games at 1.82, we can also have Sabalenka win a set 6-2 and get a void, or if Keys can sneak a tiebreak out, she can win two sets relatively easily if this goes three sets with the total going over.

If I set the line, I’d have the slightly expensive 1.82 price tag applied to the 21.5-game total, rather than the 21.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Over 21 Games at 1.82 with Pinnacle, using 2/10 stakes.
  NOTE: This is a bet for those without a future on Madison Keys. With a Keys future, there isn’t really a good way to hedge the bet without exposing yourself to possible losing both wagers and the 1.41 odds for Sabalenka to win aren’t showing much value.

Aryna Sabalenka Recent Form

The soon-to-be World No. 1 is on absolute fire entering this match.

The 2023 iteration of Sabalenka is the perfect template for every single player out there who has elite-level power, but almost no consistency or intent behind their shots. That used to be the Belarussian, who would go for almost every serve and every shot, playing with little point construction and hitting double faults at a rate that simply wasn’t sustainable for someone who wanted to win seven consecutive matches to lift a grand slam trophy.

This year, we’ve seen a different approach. The head-turning ball-striking capabilities are still there, but she’s far more aware on the court of when to go for the clean winner than she was previously. More patience means ramping up the power on a short ball sitting centrally in the court, rather than trying to hit those shots when on the run and an error is a far more likely outcome.

The result?

Titles, final appearances and semifinal appearances at nearly every big tournament in women’s tennis. For my money, she’s the best player in the world right now and taking over the mantle as the world No.1 from Iga Swiatek is deserved.

As for this tournament, she won each of her first nine sets 6-3 or better. It took the second set of her quarterfinal against Qinwen Zheng for her to drop a fourth game in a set so far at the U.S. Open.

Be warned Ms. Keys, the test is a stern one today!

Madison Keys Recent Form

We detailed how well the powerful American has been serving in our last women’s preview, and we weren’t disappointed when she took on Marketa Vondrousova.

Though she did face a slew of break points – it’s to be expected against one of the elite returners and point starters in the women’s game – her serve was not broken, bringing her hold percentage for the event to an incomprehensible 95.8%. That is some kind of form.

That should serve her well (no pun intended) against Sabalenka, who has been giving opponents next to no life in her own games and while returning well, probably isn’t one of the most natural returners out there.

Should that serve be vulnerable or see the percentage dip on how often she lands the first, however, Keys could be in big trouble in this contest.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Head to Head – Stat of the Match

There have been three matches played by these two in their careers, all on quick hard courts or grass as well.

Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 2-1, but after I just articulated how different of a player she is this year, it would only be fair if I added the context here that in 2023 she won the lone meeting between the pair in dominant fashion at Wimbledon 6-2, 6-4.

Funnily enough, that match also ended my hopes of cashing a Keys 50/1 outright bet, except in the quarterfinals instead of the semis.

Stat of the match wise, there is no getting away from the hold rate I mentioned earlier. Keys is holding her serve over 95% of the time through five matches (it’s the only reason I’d feel comfortable playing the over 21 games here if I didn’t have the futures bet), but Sabalenka has been great as well. The soon-to-be world No. 1 has racked up a hold rate of 85.7% as well, with three of the six times she’s been broken coming in the opening round as she got acclimated to the conditions at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

To say this one should be fairly serve oriented would be an understatement.

Odds as at 1:00 pm UK Time on September 7th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING

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