Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini China Open Expert Tip: Dominant Sabalenka to Cruise in Beijing

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini (China Open): Thursday, October 5th

Elena Rybakina comes back from a set and break down to beat Mirra Andreeva, but it was too little too late, as her margin of victory was only three games, leaving her short of covering the handicap thanks to erratic play in the early going.

For Thursday, we remain in Beijing and at the China Open to preview Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini in WTA action.

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In this article:

• Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Expert Tip
• Aryna Sabalenka Recent Form
• Jasmine Paolini Recent Form
• Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Expert Tip

There are a few things playing in Sabalenka’s favour here for me. First, depending on service order, this total means one break in each set could achieve a void, which seems outrageous considering the mismatch.

Secondly, the talent gap between these two is rather large.

Finally, her dominance on both serve and on return means that lopsided sets are in play and in this particular matchup, I’d say likely, which should help clear the bar in achieving this under.

• Expert Tip: Under 18.5 Games at 1.84 with Unibet, using 2/10 stakes.
  Note: Under 19 Games is available at 1.83 at Pinnacle for grading purposes.

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on October 5th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more expert insights.

Aryna Sabalenka Recent Form

What is there to say about Sabalenka in 2023? She has been simply remarkable, winning her first grand slam, reaching the final at another and racking up the wins at a dizzying pace.

In fact, she’s the world No. 1 now and it is certainly odd looking at the top line in a draw at a big tournament and not seeing Iga Swiatek with the 1 beside her name.

The Belarussian is 52-11 this season competing only at the biggest events against the best players in the women’s game.

It’s long been known she has an elite serve and elite power from the baseline, but her more consistent gameplay this year has helped her take the next steps in actually winning one of the majors and claiming the No. 1 spot in the world rankings.

Further, it has taken elite level players of late to best her, and on a quicker hard court, Paolini is not someone of that calibre.

Jasmine Paolini Recent Form

The 27-year-old Italian has looked better this week than she had in the previous month, with a pair of come-from-behind wins against Beatriz Haddad Maia (who hasn’t seemed physically fit the last little while) and Yue Yuan.

That snapped a streak of five losses from her last seven matches, with some pretty poor results mixed in there.

Paolini is a player that is probably more comfortable playing as the counterpuncher, as when she’s forced to be the aggressor, we often see her forehand spew unforced errors. It may be why she has – at times – had success against Sabalenka in the past (though we’ll dig into that in a minute).

I’m still far from convinced by her play against better players and on hard courts in 2023 though, and am particularly interested by the fact that she’s lost quite often by a wide margin.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini H2H – Stat of the Match

In what may be a shocking turn for most, Paolini actually leads this head-to-head series two wins to one.

Now, that being said, it’s worth keeping in mind that one of those wins was back in 2017, when Sabalenka was still a teenager and a long way from being the player she is today.

The other came last season at Indian Wells, known as the slowest hard courts on tour, where extending rallies and waiting out errors is a more feasible gameplan against Sabalenka. Even then, she had to come back from 2-6 down after Sabalenka posted a lopsided first set win.

SAFER GAMBLING

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