Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina China Open Expert Tip: Back the Underdog in Incredibly Close Match

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina (China Open): Friday, October 6th

Well, after Jasmine Paolini just hit her way to a close first set, it appeared as though we had some hope when Aryna Sabalenka got out to the 6-4, 3-1 lead serving to potentially at least void the under bet or even cover. Naturally, she blew the set and break lead and in the end didn’t even come close.

For Friday, we’ll stick with the world No. 1’s match at the China Open and preview Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina in WTA quarterfinal action.

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In this article:

• Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Expert Tip
• Aryna Sabalenka Recent Form
• Elena Rybakina Recent Form
• Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Expert Tip

This matchup is the definition of simply trying to identify a poor price and trusting that your judgement over a long period.

There is very little between these two, so I’m a tad shocked to see Rybakina be an established underdog here.

I would say that Sabalenka is the better mover, but I trust Rybakina more in prolonged rallies to hit with power and avoid the error more than I do with Sabalenka.

Form wise the Belarussian may have an edge, but Rybakina had some physical issues and this week has looked much healthier and much better on court.

In a match that I see as near dead even, I’ll take the underdog.

• Expert Tip: Rybakina to win at 2.38 with Bet365, using 2/10 stakes.
  Note: Available at 2.41 with Pinnacle for grading purposes.

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on October 6th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more expert insights.

Aryna Sabalenka Recent Form

It’s tough to argue with Sabalenka’s form in terms of her results, as we covered yesterday, with the career season she’s had in 2023.

I will say though, outside of the win against Sofia Kenin, I’m starting to get a little concerned that the Sabalenka of old may be creeping back in a bit. She’s been spraying errors again of late and it nearly cost her against Madison Keys in the U.S. Open semifinal (which she narrowly won), did cost her the final against Coco Gauff and now she’s played two very close straight sets matches against players that she should beat by a much wider margin in Katie Boulter and Jasmine Paolini.

The last two are primarily because while they can be aggressive from the baseline, the serves aren’t that imposing and Sabalenka can recover breaks if needed against that type of player and impose herself in the big moments.

Against Rybakina it won’t be as easy.

I also mentioned that it’s taken an elite player to beat her this year. Well, Rybakina fits that profile perfectly as one of the best players in the world since the 2022 season.

Elena Rybakina Recent Form

After battling some physical issues and maybe even an illness this summer, Rybakina has gotten herself right just in time, considering how well she fares on quicker surfaces – exactly what this portion of the calendar has to offer.

She eased through her opening two matches, and despite some struggles early against a very tough youngster in Mirra Andreeva, took over that match once she found her footing as well.

Able to match Sabalenka’s elite power on serve and in terms of ball striking, Rybakina is a player that can go toe-to-toe with her and has twice already this season.

It’s tough to pass up on Rybakina against anyone in the world if you’re going to give me underdog odds on a relatively quick court.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have met five times on the pro circuit dating back to 2019 and every one of them has been a close match.

Sabalenka leads 4-1, but this year it’s one win apiece and Rybakina claimed the most recent encounter.

Further, Sabalenka has required three sets in each of her victories and to me, that’s a strong indicator that the results match the analysis of her game being well suited to keep things close in this matchup.

SAFER GAMBLING

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