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Horse Racing Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan Lennard Struff Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 30th
Our second preview of the day from the ATP singles draw at the Mutua Madrid Open breaks down Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan Lennard Struff in a rematch from the 2023 final.
Struff’s win probability comes in at 18.3% while Alcaraz is favoured to win at 1.18 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.
Our Alcaraz vs Struff prediction is for the first set to go over 10.5 games.
In this article:
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan Lennard Struff Prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form
- Jan Lennard Struff Recent Form
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan Lennard Struff H2H Stat of the Match
- Safer Gambling
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan Lennard Struff (Mutua Madrid Open) Prediction: Struff Looking to Push Alcaraz Again in Madrid
Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on April 30th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
I’m not huge on backing Struff on the games line or overall match total at lower odds and with a higher stake. Instead, I’ll look to increase the odds (thus decreasing my percentage to break even on the bet) and play an angle that would correlate with Struff managing to repeat his performance from a year ago.
Now, none of those sets made it over 10.5 games and actually played out the other way (overall games went over the total and none of the individual sets did), but given what in Struff’s game troubles Alcaraz (the power and ability to take time away from the elite defender) and the altitude helping him keep points shorter, I do think that playing something like a first set over is a decent way to try and back the big German to string together some holds of serve and push the Spanish prodigy once more.
More tennis previews can always be found over on the expert insights section.
Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form
The season began in somewhat disappointing fashion down under with a quarterfinal loss at the year’s first grand slam and then a tough showing during the South American Golden Swing, but since Indian Wells, Alcaraz has been nearly unstoppable.
He ended up winning again in California, before Grigor Dimitrov put on a fine display against him in Miami. This tournament felt like a big one for the 20-year-old since he had withdrawn from his last two scheduled clay events, but he’s passed his first two sets with relative ease.
This feels like a different test for him, since Struff has bothered him in the past and if the arm he’s worn a sleeve on is bothering him a little bit, the big, powerful game of Struff could also pose problems – more than either of the last two guys he’s played, anyway.
There’s no doubt that he’s the much better player, but few have the ability to take time away from him like Struff, which can help close the gap a little bit in talent.
Let’s see if this time Alcaraz can find a way to drag Struff into more prolonged points than he’s been able to in the past.
Jan Lennard Struff Recent Form
Struff himself has been in fine form since making the transition to the red clay. He won the 250 in Munich and though not many gave him a great chance to defend his finalist points from 2023 in Madrid, the world No. 24 won his second and third round matches in straight sets to ensure he locks up at least fourth round points.
We know Struff’s game is well suited to the conditions in Madrid. He’s got the power to hit through any surface and that big booming serve that does well in a few hundred metres of elevation.
The shorter points, the better off he is as well, since it’s the unsustainability of his aggression that has kept him from taking steps forward in the past.
That kind of game is also why he’s probably troubled Alcaraz in the past, despite never having been ranked inside the world’s top-20.
He may not have the talent of a top-10 or top-15 guy, but by coming to net on occasion and keeping points short with power that even Alcaraz can struggle to deal with, he can play a bit more on his terms and try to pressure Alcaraz into playing a sloppy service game that the youngster is still prone to throw in every once in a while.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan Lennard Struff H2H – Stat of the Match
Unsurprisingly, Alcaraz leads the head-to-head here. What is surprising is that it’s only 2-1 and that Struff has pushed him to a deciding set in both of Alcaraz’s wins.
Now, that’s not predictive of success this time around, but it does confirm that Struff does have the ability to close the gap against him more than even some of the players ranked ahead of him.
Safer Gambling
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
