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Boxing UFC Fight Night Pavlovich vs Blaydes Best Bet: Heavyweight Battle in Vegas
UFC Fight Night Pavlovich vs Blaydes Best Bet: Saturday, April 22nd
This Saturday night Sergei Pavlovich puts his 5-fight knockout winning streak on the line against one of the top fighters in the Heavyweight division Curtis ‘The Razor’ Blaydes.
This will be a 5-round main event of the UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs Blaydes card. These two fighters have a combined 26 KO/TKO victories adn we are certainly in for a spectacle. I’ve got 2 best bets ready and waiting for the fight at 2.40 and 2.65 odds!
In this article:
Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes Preview
Sun, Apr 23rd TBD (UK time)
Sergei Pavlovich is the 3rd-ranked fighter in the division right now, but if he can get a win in this one, the UFC will have no choice but to give him a title shot. He’s been with the organization since 2018 when he made his debut against Alistair Overeem. He lost that fight via TKO due to ground-and-pound, but since that fight, Pavlovich has won each of his fights via KO/TKO. All of those knockouts came in the 1st round and he received performance of the night bonuses for 3 of those fights. He is coming off a very quick TKO win over Tai Tuivasa, but the bookmakers have him as the underdog in this fight, and I see a lot of value in backing him.
For one, the 30-year-old Russian hits like a truck, with the ability to put people away very quickly, and it’s mostly due to his boxing precision and timing. He is one of those throwback fighters that doesn’t need too many tools to get the job done. In his last 5 fights, 100% of his strikes have been to the head, with no body shots or kicks to speak of. This will definitely have to change in the near future, but we are banking on his power to get it done in this one. There is a notion among UFC pundits that Pavlovich is a terrible grappler but I think he is a lot better, and I expect his takedown defence to be the difference maker here.
I can see why the bookmakers have Curtis Blaydes as the favourite to win this one. We know that his grappling can be a very useful tool when he actually decides to use it, but I just don’t think it will work here. Blaydes can also fight standing up from time to time, but when he faces power punchers he can’t take down, it usually spells trouble. If we take a look at his 2 fights against Ngannou and the one against Derrick Lewis, we can see a recipe for this one. Failed takedowns for Blaydes that usually lose toa KO/TKO loss. It’s not that he doesn’t have the tools to get it done, it’s just the odds next to his name aren’t very enticing.
Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes Best Bet
Let’s have a look at what we can expect in this fight. Blaydes will be aware of his opponent’s power and will likely be very cautious at the beginning of the first round. Eventually, Pavlovich will start to try and find a power shot and Blaydes will go for a takedown. All we need to happen is for Sergei to stuff one or two takedowns and the fight is over.
One straight one-two combination will be enough to rock Blaydes and open up the opportunity for a finish. Let’s face it, Pavlovich has a much higher probability than the 38.7% that the odds are suggesting! Our win at 2.75 odds last weekend is giving me wings and I’m going with a bold selection here.
- Selection: Pavlovich to Win
- Best odds: 2.40 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
- Bonus: Pavlovich by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.65 odds and 3/10 stakes
Odds as at 1:00 pm, April 20th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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