Mixed martial arts | Saturday, July 3, 2021 8:35 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, August 10, 2021 2:05 PM)

UFC 264 Odds, Tips, Analysis: Best Bets For UFC 264

ITAR-TASS News Agency/Alamy Live News

Milan Stanojic

bettingexpert Senior Global Sports Editor

In this article:

UFC 264

Sunday, 11 July, 23:00 (UK time)
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, Nevada

UFC 264 Odds: Poirier vs McGregor

Dustin Poirier and Conor Mcgregor step into the octagon for the third time looking to put an end to the dispute. They have already fought two times and each fighter earned a TKO victory, but the trilogy bout will decide who the better fighter is. This Lightweight bout will be the main event of UFC 264.

Poirier cs McGregor Odds	ODDS	PROBABILITY
Poirier to win	1.80	55.6%
McGregor to win	2.0	50.0%

All odds at bet365 as at 11: 00 am 9th July 2021. odds may now differ.

Dustin Poirier Style & Form:

Dustin Poirier has been in the UFC since early 2011 and the 32-year old Lightweight is showing no signs of stopping. His list of victories includes, but is not limited to Conor McGregor, Justin Gaetje, Cub Swanson, and Max Holloway.

Dustin holds an MMA record of 27 wins, 6 losses, and one no-contest. 13 of his victories were by knockout, seven by submission, and seven by decision. Poirier has been knocked out twice in his career, and his most recent KO loss was against Michael Johnson in September 2016.

Poirier is currently the number one contender to fight new champion Charles Oliveira, and he’s earned the title shot after a monster performance against Dan Hooker and TKO against McGregor. Poirier already held the Lightweight title with a victory over Max Holloway but lost it just five months later to Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Dustin Poirier has improved a lot since his first fight against McGregor, and we can see it in their second fight. Poirier has gotten much better at defending strikes, and his boxing has come a long way. He doesn’t take shots often, and when he does, they aren’t clean knockout blows.

He doesn’t allow himself to get involved in brawls, but now has a more methodical approach to fighting, and likes to stick to his strategies. For example, his use of calf kicks in the second fight against McGregor took away his opponent’s base and slowed him down. The kicks opened a new dimension in the fight, and Dustin was simply able to open a barrage of fists to stun and then knock McGregor out.

Conor McGregor Style & Form:

Conor McGregor started his UFC journey in April 2013 with a TKO win over Marcus Brimage. Since then, McGregor has become the most recognizable name the MMA world has ever seen, and the best-paid athlete in the UFC.

Conor Mcgregor holds an MMA record of 22 wins and 5 losses. 19 of his wins came by KO/TKO, two by submission and one by decision. Four of his defeats came by submission, with notable opponents being Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov. He suffered his first TKO defeat against Dustin Poirier in January 2021 at UFC 257.

McGregor is known for his incredible power, and some of the top names in the sport have already felt how hard Conor can punch. His list of victories includes Max Holloway, Jose Aldo, Dustin Poirier, and Eddie Alvarez. His boxing has always been his best weapon, although he sometimes throws shoulder strikes in the clinch and spinning kicks.

His career has taken a turn for the worse recently, and he is working to finally get back on track. Conor has lost two of his last three fights and suffered his first career TKO in January of this year. His back is against the wall at this point, and he might find himself on the wrong end of the rope should he lose this one.

His biggest mistake in his last fight against Poirier was being one-dimensional. He focused only on boxing and failed to check Poirier’s leg kicks, and just kept going forward. He needs to stick to a strategy in this one, whatever it may be. He needs to improve his footwork and distance management.

He has a five-centimeter reach advantage, and he can use that to avoid Dustin’s combinations. Finally, he needs to check his opponent’s leg kicks, and retaliate with his own kicks to the legs and body.

Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor Best Bet

The bookmakers have Poirier winning this one at 1.80 odds, whilst McGregor is valued at 2.00.

Expect this to be a different fight than the last two, and both Poirier and McGregor will look to switch things up a bit. But one thing we can say for certain is that the fight will not go the distance. Someone will get the KO/TKO victory and submissions are out of the question. The question is who.

My money is on Poirier. Dustin Poirier is still a UFC fighter and that’s all he wants to be. His head is in the game and he is always focused. The same can’t be said about McGregor. Although his ventures are certainly worthy of applause, he isn’t the same fighter he once was and his hunger is gone.

Dustin has also shown more versatility and fighting IQ in their last fight. McGregor remained very one-dimensional and that got him his first knockout defeat. If you’re looking for more value, as you should, Poirier is given 2.10 odds of winning via KO/TKO/DQ or decision.

Prediction: Poirier to win at 1.80 odds.

All odds at bet365 as at 11: 00 am 9th July 2021. odds may now differ.

Click here for more Poirier vs McGregor tips.

UFC 264 Odds: Burns vs Thompson

The co-main event of UFC 264 will see Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson stepping into the cage and working towards a Welterweight title shot against champion Kamaru Usman. Burns is coming off a TKO loss to Usman at UFC 258, and Thompson is on a two-fight winning streak, looking to make it three.

Burns vs Thompson Odds	ODDS	PROBABILITY
Burns to win	2.40	41.7%
Thompson to win	1.58	63.3%

All odds at bet365 as at 11: 00 am 9th July 2021. odds may now differ.

Gilbert Burns Style & Form:

Burns made his UFC debut in July 2014 with a decision victory over Andreas Stahl. He was on a six-fight winning streak before his encounter with Usman and had defeated Demian Maia and Tyron Woodley in his last two fights. Unfortunately, despite his best efforts, Burns was TKOd by the champion and lost the fight in the third round.

Burns is looking to get back on track and earn himself another shot at the title against Wonderboy Thompson. He holds an MMA record of 19 wins and 4 losses. Six of his wins were by KO/TKO, eight by submission, and five by decision. Two of his defeats were by knockout, with two more by decision.

Burns holds a second-degree black belt in BJJ and has a successful background in the sport with multiple gold medals in major competitions. His striking has developed significantly in recent years, and he has incredible power. But, he can get one-dimensional at times and has a tendency to telegraph some of his moves. He needs to work on setting up his most dangerous strikes with quick one-two punches.

Though his striking is dangerous, he likes to use it to set up his takedowns and this is where he lives. Burns is very dangerous on the ground, not only for his submissions but also his ground-and-pound. Burns will have a significant reach disadvantage of 11 centimeters in this one, and he will have to close the distance quickly and work inside the pocket.

Stephen Thompson Style & Form:

Stephen Thompson started his UFC journey in 2012 with a KO victory over Dan Stittgen at UFC 143. His career has seen a mix of knockout and decision victories over dangerous opponents. After losing to Till, Woodley, and Pettis, Thompson bounced back with victories over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal.

Thompson’s career took an unfortunate turn during and after his title opportunity. He fought Tyron Woodley at UFC 205, and the fight was ruled a majority draw. They fought again four months later and Thompson lost via majority decision. This was a bitter blow for him and his troubles continued further.

Thompson bounced back with a victory over Jorge Masvidal but lost his next two against Darren Till and Anthony Pettis. However, Thompson recovered nicely with two victories in a row against Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal. His confidence has returned and he looks like his old self.

Thompson’s background in Karate and Kickboxing made him a very unique and dangerous opponent. He also has a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and a brown belt in BJJ. He is not known for his grappling, but his striking game has always been his bread and butter.

He is very creative and constantly jumps around the octagon waiting for his opportunity to strike. In fact, that is his best weapon in MMA, and opponents often struggle to match his reach and movement.

In this fight, he will have to watch Burns’ fight against Usman and take note of Usman’s use of the jab to his advantage. Thompson has a significant reach advantage and can use his long arms and quick feet to disrupt Burns’ game plan. His kicks are quicker and more creative than his opponent’s and he can also attack the legs and body from a distance.

Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson Best Bet

The bookies have Burns to win at 2.40 odds, and Thompson is given 1.58.

It’s all about form in this one, and Thompson is the better of the two. He’s won his last two fights and is looking to make it three. On the other side, Burns got knocked out in February this year, and I doubt his head has recovered from the fight against Usman.

Burns is, by all means, an excellent fighter, but Thompson is simply in a better situation. He is much better at stand-up and his reach is a great advantage.

Prediction: Thompson to win by decision or technical decision at 2.40 odds.

All odds at bet365 as at 11: 00 am 9th July 2021. odds may now differ.

Click here for more Burns vs Thompson tips.

UFC 264 Odds: O’Malley vs Moutinho

UFC 264 will also see Sean O’Malley and Krist Moutinho putting on their gloves in the UFC Bantamweight division. Both fighters are coming off important victories and are looking to make it into the Bantamweight rankings.

O’Malley vs Moutinho Odds	ODDS	PROBABILITY
O’Malley to win	1.12	89.3%
Moutinho to win	6.50	15.4%

All odds at bet365 as at 11: 00 am 9th July 2021. odds may now differ.

Sean O’Malley Style & Form:

Sean O’Malley made it to the UFC via Dana White’s Contender Series. He quickly gained the appreciation of fans for his exceptional striking skills and colorful personality. He won four of his first official UFC fights in a row and got an opportunity to prove himself against Marlon Vera.

Unfortunately, O’Malley sustained a foot injury in the bout and lost via TKO. This was a major blow for O’Malley, but his confidence never waned and he returned to fighting again at UFC 260. There, O’Malley faced Thomas Almeida and delivered a KO victory, marking his return.

In terms of his fighting style, O’Malley is as technical as they come. He is very light on his feet and has a wide range of punches and kicks that have earned him nine knockouts. He also holds a brown belt in BJJ and can pull off a submission.

O’Malley is a 26-year-old fighter looking to make a name for himself in the Bantamweight division. His defeat to Vera was a setback, but his skill set suggests he will be in the UFC for years to come. His boxing is his most impressive weapon, and O’Malley has very quick hands and excellent head movement. He has never been properly knocked out, and his kicks provide another dimension to his striking game.

But, the thing that is the most impressive about this young blood is his attitude in the cage. He doesn’t allow himself to become too emotional and sticks to his game plan at all times. His movement and defense make him a very hard target to hit, and he can be a matchup nightmare.

Kris Moutinho Style & Form:

The 28-year-old fighter from the USA will step into the octagon to face Sean O’Malley as a replacement for Louis Smolka.

Not much is known about this fighter, other than he has spent most of his career fighting as part of the CES MMA promotion and that he has a record of nine wins and four losses.

In 2019, Moutinho faced two KO/TKO defeats in a row, and his fighting career was in jeopardy. However, after more than a year’s pause from fighting, Moutinho bounced back nicely with a TKO victory over Ashiek Ajim at CES MMA 61: Gotti III vs Alley.

Moutinho continued his good form with a submission (arm-triangle choke) win over Andrew Salas at Cage Fury Fighting Championships 96. It’s safe to say that Moutinho has regained his form and confidence, and is ready to make his UFC debut.

In terms of style, Moutinho’s stand-up isn’t at O’Malley’s level and he will have to resort to his wrestling if he wants to get the win. O’Malley’s striking is too precise and deliberate, and Moutinho can not take any risks.

Moutinho showed very good wrestling in his fight against Campbell and Salas, and he is deceptively strong for his weight class. He can use his striking as a set-up for his takedowns, and win points from there. It’s unlikely that he will get a submission on O’Malley, but he can bully him on the ground and provide constant pressure.

Sean O’Malley vs Kris Moutinho Best Bet

Unfortunately, Louis Smolka had to withdraw from this fight, and Sean O’Malley had to wait for a new opponent. Luckily for him, the UFC decided they want to spare him any trouble and found someone out of the UFC with a 9-4 record.

The bookies have O’Malley winning this one at 1.12 odds, whilst Moutinho is given 6.50, and that’s all there is to say about this one.

Not much value to be found here unless it’s in the rounds market. This will be a three-rounder and we know O’Malley is going to get the job done. He is given 2.30 odds for the first, 4.00 for the second, and 8.00 for the third-round finish.

I have O’Malley winning the fight in the first round at 2.30 odds.

Prediction: O’Malley to win in the first round at 2.30 odds.

All odds at bet365 as at 11: 00 am 9th July 2021. odds may now differ.

Click here for more O’Malley vs Moutinho tips.

UFC 264 Best Bets Acca

Poirier vs McGregor – Poirier to win via KO/TKO/DQ or submission at 2.37 odds.
Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson – Thompson to win by decision or technical decision at 2.50 odds
Niko Price vs Michel Pereira – Pereira to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission at 2.50 odds

Acca Total: 14.81

All odds at bet365 as at 11: 00 am 6th July 2021. odds may now differ.

	TIPS	WINNERS	PROFIT/LOSS	RETURN
MILAN STANOJIC UFC BEST BETS	11	7	+10.81	+98.3%

1. Poirier to win via KO/TKO/DQ or submission

Poirier has simply gotten much better since their first encounter and it shows. He can switch it up without problems and he doesn’t focus on one particular aspect too much. On the other side, McGregor has remained much the same, and even regressed in recent fights.

His early win over Cerrone made him look very good, but his performance against Poirier last time has unveiled his biggest weakness – he doesn’t care that much anymore. He is simply in it for the money and the show and he doesn’t train as much as he used to.

Click here for more Poirier vs McGregor tips.

2. Thompson to win by decision or technical decision

I’m going with Wonderboy’s reach and volume in this one. Yes, Burns has the knockout power necessary to put Thompson to sleep, but I don’t see him getting the job done here. He is coming off a tough KO defeat and is vulnerable to get knocked out again. He will either exercise caution, allowing Thompson to throw more strikes, or rush into the pocket and expose himself to a potential finish.

Click here for more Burns vs Thompson tips.

3. Pereira to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission

Niko Price is on the wrong end of a bad run. He’s lost by KO/TKO three times in the last three years and it doesn’t look like he will be able to recover. His last fight was a no-contest against a fading Donald Cerrone.

On the other side, Michel Pereira has won two in a row, if you count the DQ loss to Diego Sanchez, where he lost Petr Yan style – by throwing an illegal knee. That said, his style is perfect for countering Niko Price because he is very creative, but also throws straight punches down the pipe, compared to Price’s hooks.

Click here for more Price vs Pereira tips.