UFC 296 Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Odds, Stats, Expert Picks: 'Rocky' Over 'Chaos'

UFC 296 Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Odds, Stats, Picks: Monday, December 11th

UFC 296 takes place on this weekend, on December 16th and the main event will be Leon Edwards taking on Colby Covington for the UFC Welterweight title.

Leon Edwards is coming off a dominant 1st title defence against division legend and former champion Kamaru Usman and is looking to continue his winning streak. On the other side, the challenger – Colby Covington, has been very inactive in recent years but is coming off a solid performance against Jorge Masvidal in March 2022.

Our MMA expert Milan Stanojic will be breaking down the early UFC 296 Edwards vs Covington betting odds and giving his opinion & expert pick on the event. For more expert MMA opinions, visit our Expert Insights section.

• Selection: Leon Edwards to Win
• Best odds: 1.79
• Bookmaker: Vulkanbet
• Stake: 3/10

In this article:

• UFC 296 Lean Edwards vs Colby Covington Picks
• UFC 296 Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Odds
• Leon Edwards UFC Stats & Form
• Colby Covington UFC Stats & Form
• UFC 296 Edwards vs Covington Card
• Safer Gambling

UFC 296 Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Pick

• Selection: Leon Edwards to Win
• Best odds: 1.79
• Bookmaker: Vulkanbet
• Stake: 3/10

We had a very close race up until this week when the odds changed drastically in favour of Leon Edwards. Books that offered 1.80 are now at 1.70 or even the high 1.60s. A lot of bettors are picking Leon to defend the Welterweight title, 80% according to Unibet, to be more precise.

All things considered, including time off, form and overall skillset, we are also jumping on the chance t back Rocky before the odds shift even more.

UFC 296 Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Odds

Odds available as of December 11th 2023. Odds may now differ. 

The UFC 296 Edwards vs Covington odds are finally out and most bookmakers are favouring the champion to win. The initial odds at William Hill had Edwards to win at 1.73 odds but a consensus has been reached around the 1.70 mark, with the highest being 1.85 at Pinnacle.

Leon Edwards has been a lot more active in recent years, and has managed to beat Kamaru Usman twice, an opponent Colby was unable to beat. Although I don’t like using this logic when predicting UFC fights, the psychological factor is definitely huge. Leon Edwards is definitely going to have an advantage in the striking department and his takedown defence has gotten much better. We have a clear path to victory for him either by decision or by KO/TKO, which can’t be said about Colby.

The UFC 296 odds suggest a 48.3% win probability for Colby Covington at UFC 296. Despite looking very good in his last fight, which was in March 2022 against Jorge Masvidal, who was in poor form and coming off a tough KO loss to Kamaru Usman. The path to victory here is likely going to be another decision, but we don’t see the 47.6% as realistic.

Leon Edwards UFC Stats & Form

Leon ‘Rocky’ Edwards is the reigning UFC Welterweight champion having successfully stripped Kamaru Usman with a brutal head-kick KO in August 2022. He went on to make his first title defence 7 months later, but this time it was a decisive majority decision victory. Edwards was deducted a point due to fence grabbing but he managed to defend most of Usman’s takedowns and won the significant striking battle by 120-87.

Edwards has always been known as a sharp striker in the division and this has always been his most reliable weapon. However, against Usman, he showcased massive progress when it came to grappling, more precisely his takedown defence.

Rocky is in phenomenal shape at the moment in all aspects of his game, including cardio, grappling durability and striking. It’s very difficult to find a weakness in his game.

Colby Covington UFC Stats & Form

Colby Covington is the 2nd-ranked fighter in the UFC Welterweight division and former interim champion. He has been in the UFC 2014 and holds an impressive 17-3 MMA record. He is widely known for his flamboyant personality, but his fighting skills have never been far behind.

A former collegian wrestler, Covington also developed his striking when transitioning to MMA and, much like Edwards, it’s very difficult to find holes in his game. Kamaru Usman was the only fighter who was able to do so since 2015 and he did so twice, both times in UFC title fights.

Covington has only fought 3 times in the last 3 years, and his latest fight was a decision victory over Jorge Masvidal in March 2022. He looked great in that one, landing 6 takedowns and winning the significant strike battle 94-67.

Colby has exceptional cardio, and great durability and is one of the best volume strikers in the game If he is going to have a path to victory, it’s going to be volume and endurance.

UFC 296 Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Card

Main Card:

• Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington – Welterweight Title out
• Alexandre Pentoja vs Brandon Royval
• Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Stephen Thompson
• Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett
• Vicente Luque vs Ian garry

Prelims:

• Josh Emmett vs Bryce Mitchell
• Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa
• Cody Garbrandt vs Brian Kelleher
• Casey O’Neill vs Ariane Lipski

Early Prelims:

• Alonzo Menifield vs Dustin Jacoby
• Tagir Ulenbekov vs Cody Durden
• Andre Fili vs Lukas Almeida
• Martin Buday vs Shamil Gaziev
• Randy Brown vs Muslim Salikov

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.