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Boxing Bettingexpert Guide: How to bet on the 2024 Cheltenham Festival
The 2024 Cheltenham Festival is made up of 28 races, with four days of top class jump racing and it has come to completely dominate the whole National Hunt season in Britain and Ireland. The two left-handed courses (old and new) are challenging in different ways, each with their subtle contours that can make or break the results, and the undulations of the track can often see the complexion of races change dramatically in the closing stages (with the stamina sapping hill often producing heart or wallet-breaking turnarounds in the final 200 yards). The historic old course has a shorter run-in promoting speed and those ridden handily, while the longer new course is a proper test (making it all to play for in the final finish up the Cheltenham hill).
There are many factors an informed punter will need to consider when finding value bets at the festival. In this exclusive bettingexpert article we will take a look at 10 2024 Festival Punting Pointers to help followers find some profitable strategies during the festival week – in collaboration with bet365.
In this article:
- Follow the red hot yards with a solid recent record of success, but also keep an eye on smaller stables who are in flying form
- Bet early in the morning of each race day to find the best prices on offer with a full range of bookmakers (or the night before)…have as many accounts open and funded as possible
- You don’t have to play in every race…discipline is key in turning a profit at the 2024 Festival…bet a package of horses each-way when the terms are favourable
- Fast run races tend to suit those ridden with patience from off the pace…know which jockeys excel in these races…..look for a likely pace collapse late for the stayers to come through up the final Cheltenham hill
- Check out previous course form at Cheltenham, particularly at previous Festivals…..rewatch replays from the 2023 Festival and previous Cheltenham meetings
- Freshness can be crucial and look out for Irish runners from the smaller stables….don’t be afraid of betting seemingly “unfancied” horses ignored by the market….all are doing their best despite seemingly huge prices being available
- Avoid hype, follow the form book….use your own eyes and ignore gossip and rumours that fly around during festival week (particular at the million preview evenings that take place throughout February and March in the build up)
- Check for any track bias, especially when the rain arrives and eases the ground conditions….keep on top of the weather forecast and expected going conditions
- Bookmaker Offers are well worth taking advantage of over these ultra competitive four days
- The bettingexpert Nap over the four days of the festival is….. Saint Roi 14/1
1. Follow the red hot yards with a solid recent record of success, but also keep an eye on smaller stables who are in flying form
Statistically the top Irish stables come back year after year and dominate during festival week. Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have won the highest percentage of races at the Festival in recent history and are sure to have very strong teams again in 2024, while it is well worth noting the form of all stables in the last couple of weeks leading up to the festival. In January this year Mullins maintained a strike rate around 40pc, with all of his youngsters in particular proving really hard to beat in novice company, and he will be hoping that continues into March at the Festival. Elsewhere it is worth keeping an eye on smaller yards for the handicaps in particular, where stable form can be a very significant factor (and one often missed by the market). This season some of the excellent yards like Kim Bailey and Dr Richard Newland have endured disappointing winters, with their strike rates well below what would be expected, and plenty of their horses are extremely well treated as a result in the handicaps (if recent signs are more encouraging in the weeks before the Festival begins).
This information is easily sourced from free racing sites like Attheraces or Racing Post, and is an important tool for punters to consider. January/February can be tricky months for formbook followers, with flu-jabs often given to horses in this period and often this has a short-term impact on the form of the stable (although in 2024 this does not seem to have had much of an effect, with many yards just having a quiet few weeks with less runners than usual).
2. Bet early in the morning of each race day to find the best prices on offer with a full range of bookmakers (or the night before)
The Cheltenham betting market is traditionally extremely strong both on and off-course, though most of the action now does take place online away from the track. All the big firms are come out to lay big bets of almost any size demanded, unlike the rest of the season when it can be difficult to get on (particularly if you are an astute value-seeking punter). A smart punter is better off looking for the value in the morning markets by scrutinising the range of prices on offer, with the percentages usually no more than a 100pc across a range of layers (and the place books in the handicaps usually significantly overbroke). This is definitely the best week of the year to be a punter, with the racing so competitive and the betting markets well established over the last few months, and all online firms keen to attract new business (and all have their prices up on all the races many weeks in advance.
You will be able to find Super Boost odds with bet365 – revealed each morning from 10am.
3. You don’t have to play in every race…discipline is key in turning a profit at the 2024 Festival…bet a package of horses each-way when the terms are favourable
It is important to remember that there are four days and 28 races during the festival week – you don’t need to play in every race. Don’t get overconfident by falling into a trap when you have backed a winner… and don’t start chasing your losses when things go wrong. Treat every race on its merits and make smart betting decisions. Remember this is the most competitive meeting of the year so pick your punches and play when you see tangible, considered value. Ensure you always take full advantage of the best prices on offer, and play each-way when the terms are in your favour (16 runner handicaps with four places or more can be the best betting medium of all). Often backing a package of four or five horses each-way in these races can be an excellent way to play…..play at the best prices, with best odds-guaranteed and extra places…mathematically you will definitely have an edge over time.
4. Fast run races tend to suit those ridden with patience from off the pace…know which jockeys excel in these races…..look for a likely pace collapse late for the stayers to come through up the final Cheltenham hill
One of the better strategies at the festival, particularly when the ground conditions do ride on the softer side, is to concentrate on horses that are ridden patiently in the festival handicaps. Because of the big fields and very competitive nature of the racing over the four days, it is very hard to dominate and make all the running from the tape, and overall frontrunners tend to find themselves harried on an overly fast pace from an early stage. UK runners (who have been dominating small fields midweek in uncompetitive races) tend to find life a lot harder at the festival, so it can be advantageous to look for those who are traditionally dropped out before coming through up the demanding final hill. Certain jockeys over the years have excelled here, with the recently retired Davy Russell a brilliant judge of pace, Paul Carberry sublime from off the pace, while these days the veteran Paddy Brennan usually times things to perfection (especially on the hurdle course where he is often first to know that a wide route is the place to be). Keep an eye out too for promising young claimers, particular those used by the top yards when on board second or third strings in the handicaps….they can be ignored by the market and offer excellent value.
5. Check out previous course form at Cheltenham, particularly at previous Festivals…..rewatch replays from the 2023 Festival and previous Cheltenham meetings
Time and again the same horses come back to Cheltenham every year and show their best form during the festival. The unique demands of these highly charged and competitive races over the four days means certain horses are suited to the unique undulations, the strong pace and the soft ground far more than their rivals. Concentrate on horses with winning course and distance form and you could unlock a winning formula. Watch back the 2023 festival carefully (replays are freely available on websites for free like Racing TV or Sporting Life)…particularly those who may have been unlucky but ran better than the bare result suggests….it is amazing how many things you will spot away from the obvious that has perhaps escaped the attention of the press.
6. Freshness can be crucial and look out for Irish runners from the smaller stables….don’t be afraid of betting seemingly “unfancied” horses ignored by the market….all are doing their best despite seemingly huge prices being available
Look for fresh, laid out runners who have not had lots of racing in the run up to the festival. Ideally your selection will have had a nice break before the big day, and the top yards are expert at laying out horses to peak for these highly valuable graded and handicap contests. The value can lie away from the obvious, with smaller Irish stables well worth keeping an eye on (especially in the handicaps, where year-long plots are often hatched). Those late market moves on the day are always worth noting, with yards like Emmet Mullins especially shrewd and rarely far away when the cash is down. Having said that, all horses are doing their very best at the Festival, with their entire seasons geared around the big day in March, and it really is a four days of racing where you can use your own eyes and judgement of the form book to make your betting profitable.
7. Avoid hype, follow the form book….use your own eyes and ignore gossip and rumours that fly around during festival week (particular at the million preview evenings that take place throughout February and March in the build up)
Try and avoid information overload (there is plenty of it about including around three months of relentless “preview evenings” tellingly often sponsored by the big bookmakers). Concentrate on the form, watching replays, looking for angles away from the obvious and most importantly of all, the prices available on the day…where does the value lie? Try to avoid short prices that are often based on connections rather than any outstanding claims on what has been achieved on the track…..betting odds-on favourites is not generally a successful strategy at the festival, with the racing usually having more depth than it might at first appear….this theory will certainly be testing again in 2024 when a lot of the Graded races have an odds-on favourite that the public are sure to latch onto in multiple bets each day. There is a myriad of expert advice and opinion out there but our tip is to keep it simple, focus on solid form ignoring the whispers or trackside gossip. Don’t fall foul of the hype, plan your strategy and stay disciplined.
8. Check for any track bias, especially when the rain arrives and eases the ground conditions….keep on top of the weather forecast and expected going conditions
Watch the early races each day of the festival for any track bias. Often at Cheltenham it can be far better to race wide on the less poached-up testing ground typically in the big field handicaps. If the ground rides soft or heavy it can be a big advantage to come up against the stands rail and those up the inside do tend to struggle in recent years (especially by the end of the week when the ground can become quite chewed up if the weather is wet). Some jockeys like Paddy Brennan are particularly expert at knowing where to position their horses (having always walked the course first), while younger riders like Jack Tudor are worth keeping on side of. In-running players on the exchanges can use this knowledge to find some excellent value in patiently ridden “wide” runners.
9. Bookmaker Offers are well worth taking advantage of over these ultra competitive four days
Whether you are a recreational small staking punter, or a full time professional, this week is idea to take full advantage of all the bookmaker offers – they will be falling over each other to take your bets on such competitive racing. There will be plenty on offer for new punters but also some great incentives for the experienced backer too. Offers could include free bets, extra places on the big field handicaps (extended each way terms/paying out for 5th 6th 7th or even 8 places), ‘cashback’ offers such as money back if you are on a faller, or even ‘double results’ if you back the winner who is subsequently disqualified. There will be a number of opportunities to get better value for your punting pound (with Best Odds Guaranteed usually included as back up on all but the most restricted accounts).
10. The bettingexpert Nap over the four days of the festival is….. Saint Roi 14/1
With bet365, 4.50pm on Wednesday
My personal bettingexpert Nap of the meeting is Saint Roi from the all powerful Willie Mullins stable. He ran really well here in the 2023 Festival behind El Fabiolo and Jonbon in the Arkle, and has been campaigned with this valuable handicap in mind all winter (very well treated and will relish the fast run race over this trip).
So as the countdown begins, study the form, start your research early and get ready to enjoy four days of top class jumps racing safe in the knowledge that you have a sound betting strategy in place.
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
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