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Tour Championship Tip: Thursday, August 24th
We’ll look at The Tour Championship tips for the PGA event in Atlanta, Georgia this Thursday, August 24th. East Lake Golf Club returns as the host course for this. We have analysed the betting markets to bring you our best value Tour Championship tip.
- Selection: Russell Henley 72 Hole Stroke Play EW (1/4 1-4)
- Best Odds: 29.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 11.55 August 22nd 2023. Odds may now differ.
In this article:
Tour Championship Preview – Last Event to Impress Johnson ahead of Ryder Cup
The 2022-23 PGA Tour season comes to a conclusion with the Tour Championship. Only thirty players have made it through to the year’s final event at East Lake Golf Club, where the winner will walk off with the FedEx Cup and a cool $18 million.
Scottie Scheffler is the man who is most likely to be receiving a boost to his bank account given the nature of this event. To provide an advantage to those placed higher up the season-long FedEx Cup standings, each player is assigned a handicapped starting score. Players further down the rankings start at a disadvantage to those higher up. Scheffler starts on a score of ten under par, with nearest challenger, Viktor Hovland, starting on eight under par.
At 7,346 yards, East Lake is only 20 yards shorter than last week’s venue, Olympia Fields. Just like last week, the course will play to a par of 70. Whilst we had little course form to draw upon at the BMW Championship, East Lake has hosted the final event of the PGA Tour season each year since 2007.
East Lake was originally mapped out by Tom Bendelow but there have been several subsequent redesigns. Donald Ross and Rees Jones have made changes to the course, with Andrew Green set to make further changes after this year’s event. None of the last six winners have been worse than sixth for SG: Off The Tee so a strong driving display is essential to succeed.
Thunderstorms may impact play on the final day but the weather forecast is hot and sunny for each of the first three days. With the wind not expected to be significant, we don’t need to consider the impact of the weather this week.
One final point to note is that this is the last event for American players to impress Ryder Cup captain Zach Johnson. With several players vying for a place on the team, we could see someone mount a last ditch attempt to get on the team.
Tour Championship Tip – Henley the value on 365
I’ll state from the outset that the Tour Championship handicapping system makes this one of the least interesting events to analyse on the PGA Tour calendar. The best players in the world are given a head start and it’s unlikely we will see a shock winner in the outright market.
World number one, Scottie Scheffler, is the strong favourite to win the Tour Championship and lift the FedEx Cup. Scheffler’s price of 2.50 is understandable given his remarkable consistency (he’s finished inside the top four in five of his last seven starts) and the fact he enjoys a two shot lead to start the event.
Scheffler was unfortunate to lose out to Viktor Hovland’s final round fireworks last week and I’m not keen to take him on in the traditional outright market. Scheffler suffered a final round collapse here last year to lose out to Rory McIlroy but odds of 4.00 on McIlroy staging a repeat performance make little appeal.
Rather than the outright market, look to the 72 hole stroke play winner market with bet365 as a way to bet on this week’s action. This removes the handicapping and each player starts from scratch. Somewhat annoyingly, you won’t be able to track the scores on the PGA Tour website or on the television coverage, since they are focused on the outcome of the FedEx Cup, but several websites provide a scratch scoreboard and this makes for a far more interesting betting proposition.
Russell Henley is the man I like most in that market, given recent red hot form. Henley’s last three finishes read eighth, sixth and second. Those finishes have been built on solid play tee to green, gaining strokes off the tee and with his approaches in each of those starts. Henley will also return to East Lake with positive memories, finishing third in this market in his last start in 2017. Back Henley each way at odds of 29.00 with bet365 in the 72 hole stroke play market.
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