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Boxing The Sentry Tips 2024: 29.00 Expert Pick for PGA Tour Opener
The Sentry Tips: Thursday, January 4th
Our betting expert Duncan Campbell has prepared The Sentry tips for the 2024 edition of this tournament. The Plantation course at Kapalua is once again the venue for The Sentry 2024. Our expert Duncan Campbell has analysed the betting markets to provide betting value for this first PGA event of 2024.
- Selection: Matt Fitzpatrick EW (1/4 1-5)
- Best Odds: 29.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 12.55 January 4th 2024. Odds may now differ.
In this article:
The Sentry Overview
Thursday, 4th January, 12:00 (UK)
A new year brings a new name for the season opener on the PGA Tour as The Sentry Tournament of Champions is shortened to The Sentry. Now a Signature event, a new name was needed to accommodate the non-winners who are in the field as a result of the tournament being expanded to include those who finished inside the top 50 in the 2023 FedEx Cup.
A field of 59 has assembled in Hawaii to kick the season off, with several players taking the opportunity to come out to Hawaii early to escape the colder weather back home. Wide fairways, big greens and minimal rough at the Plantation course make for a welcoming start to the year.
A Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore design, the Plantation Course at Kapalua is an unusual set up. At just under 7,600 yards, it will play as a par 73 with only three par three holes. Significantly undulating, it is one of the harder walks on the PGA Tour for players. Those physical demands don’t align with the test presented by the course though and we can expect plenty of birdies. Winning scores in the last two years have been 27 and 34 under par.
The current weather forecast suggests low scoring will once again be the order of the day. Very little wind is expected but there is the possibility of rain showers on Saturday.
The Sentry Tips
Just as they did last time out at the Hero World Challenge, Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler head up the betting. Hovland edged Scheffler on that occasion but the American’s dominant display in the Bahamas, along with Hovland’s average record in this event, means that Scheffler is the correct 6.00 favourite this week.
Hovland has often appeared rusty after the winter break, a fact likely attributable to the fact he has often returned home to a snow covered Norway for the Christmas break. He’s yet to crack the top ten in this event and whilst I think it is inevitable he will do so at some point, I’m in no rush to back odds of 9.00.
History gives us plenty of pointers when trying to identify a winner at Kapalua. Eleven of the past twelve winners have played an event in December. We also have to go back to 2008 to find a winner who was making his course debut. Add in the fact that seven of the last nine winners have been below the age of 30 and a profile begins to emerge. Those players who have had a short winter break, have played the course before and don’t have the distractions of children around Christmas are certainly favoured in my opinion.
Matt Fitzpatrick is one such player and I like his chances at 29.00. Winner of the US Open in 2022, he made his debut in this event last year, posting a highly respectable seventh place finish. That seventh place finish would have been even better were it not for the fact he closed with a final round of 70. A score in the sixties would have seen him post a top five.
Fitzpatrick also comes into this week on the back of a strong performance at the Hero World Challenge in December. A fast finishing fourth place that week gives him momentum and he’s one of the few in this field who has had less than a month off.
Finally, it should be noted that Fitzpatrick is yet to have children but did get engaged towards the end of 2023. At 29 years of age, he ticks the under 30 box without having the distraction of Christmas with younger ones to distract him. Back the Englishman at odds of 29.00 with bet365 for five each way places.
Those of you looking for a non-outright bet are advised to consider Russell Henley to beat Wyndham Clark in a 72 hole match bet. Henley has played in this event four times previously, with a best of third place. A winner in Hawaii previously at the Sony Open, Henley also closed out 2023 with a top 15 finish at The RSM Classic and kept sharp by playing the Grant Thornton Invitational in December.
Clark makes his debut this week and was badly out of sorts when finishing second last at the Hero World Challenge in December. Henley’s course experience and superior recent form make him a bet worth considering at 1.91.
- Selection: Matt Fitzpatrick EW (1/4 1-5)
- Best Odds: 29.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 12.55 January 4th 2024. Odds may now differ.
