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Horse Racing The American Express Tips: 126.00 Expert Pick For This Weekend’s Action
The American Express Tips: Thursday, January 18th
The Stadium Course course at PGA West in California is once again the host venue for The American Express. Our betting expert Duncan Campbell has prepared his American Express tips for the 2024 edition of this tournament.
- Selection: KH Lee EW (1/4 1-5)
- Best Odds: 126.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 21.55 January 15th 2024. Odds may now differ.
In this article:
The American Express Overview
Thursday, 18th January, 12:00 (UK)
The American Express marks the end of two weeks in Hawaii and the start of a run of five events on the West Coast of mainland USA for the PGA Tour. Once a five day celebrity pro-am event, thankfully the tournament has now been reduced to four days.
One feature retained from tournaments of yesteryear is a multi course setup, with players playing three different courses over the opening three rounds. The Pete Dye designed Stadium Course is the host course this week, with players playing one round there on the opening three days before the final round is held there for players who make the 54 hole cut.
Birdies are plentiful this week and to make it through to the final round players will need to go low. A winning score of at least 23 under par has been posted in each of the past five renewals and the tournament has seen two rounds of 59 (David Duval in 1999 and Adam Hadwin in 2017). Past winner, Jon Rahm, famously called this event a “putting contest” in an expletive laden outburst and I’m certainly targeting strong putters with my American Express tips.
All three courses play to a par of 72 and have a yardage of just over 7,000 yards. The Stadium Course traditionally plays as the hardest course, with the Nicklaus Tournament course playing around a shot easier and La Quinta playing easier still. Strong approach play has been a common denominator amongst winners of this event, along with an ability to perform in desert conditions.
The current weather forecast suggests low scoring will once again be the order of the day. Very little wind is expected but there is the possibility of rain showers on Sunday.
The American Express Tips
Scottie Scheffler heads up the outright market but he’ll need to putt better than he did at The Sentry to have a chance of winning. It looked like Scheffler had solved his putting problems when winning the Hero World Challenge in December but his frailties appeared once again in Maui. That poor putting display could be attributed to rust but he has lost strokes on the greens in six of his last seven starts, and that’s certainly a worry at odds of 6.00.
With a score of 23 under par likely to be needed, I’m drawn to a player who has won twice on the PGA Tour with a winning score in excess of that number. A two time winner of the AT&T Byron Nelson, KH Lee has posted scores of 25 and 26 under par to win those events.
Results in this event have been mixed to date but he has recorded a 21st and 32nd place finish from five events. Whilst those results may not leap off the page, he has strong desert form in other events to ease any concerns. A runner up finish at the Phoenix Open, along with a couple of top 15 finishes at the Shriners Children’s Open all suggest he’s comfortable with this type of test.
A 30th place finish last week at the Sony Open could have been better were the putter a little warmer. However, he ranked seventh for SG: Approach for the week and a continuation of that iron play should see him set up plenty of birdie opportunities in California. Lee has gained strokes on the greens in four of his five starts at The American Express, so it would be a surprise were his putting not to improve. The Korean is my American Express tip of the week at 126.00 with bet365.
Last week’s article suggested a playoff was worth backing at odds of 4.00 on the basis of historical trends and this week’s special bet follows a similar line of thinking. Aside from Eric Cole and Scottie Scheffler, it is hard to think of a golfer who was more consistent in 2023 than Stephan Jaeger. The German finished inside the top 45 in 20 out of his 26 starts on the PGA Tour, missing only two cuts. That trend continued last week at the Sony Open with an 18th place finish and he looks like a player worth backing in the ‘Finishing Position’ market with bet365. Odds of 1.83 are available for Jaeger to finish 44th, a bet that would have landed had we placed it last year when he finished 36th.
- Selection: KH Lee EW (1/4 1-5)
- Best Odds: 126.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 21.55 January 15th 2024. Odds may now differ.
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