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Horse Racing Phoenix Open Tips: 61.00 Expert Pick For This Weekend’s Action
Phoenix Open Tips: Thursday, February 8th
TPC Scottsdale is once again the host venue for the Phoenix Open. Our betting expert Duncan Campbell has prepared his Phoenix Open tips for the 2024 edition of this tournament.
- Selection: Kevin Yu ‘Without Scheffler’ EW (1/4 1-5)
- Best Odds: 61.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 22.55 February 5th 2024. Odds may now differ.
In this article:
Phoenix Open Overview
Thursday, 8th February, 12:00 (UK)
If the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was a bit of a let down, the WM Phoenix Open should be the perfect pick me up. Often referred to as the People’s Open, over 700,000 fans will pass through the gates of TPC Scottsdale this week, creating an event unlike any other on the PGA Tour.
Few events can match the raucous atmosphere generated at TPC Scottsdale, with the 16th hole in particular a cauldron of noise. The short par three hole has become somewhat of an institution over the years and fans are quick to let players know when they have hit a bad shot. This isn’t an event for the faint hearted and I’m certainly factoring whether a player has the correct temperament into my Phoenix Open tips.
Unlike the past few weeks on the PGA Tour, TPC Scottsdale will be the only course used for the WM Phoenix Open. Designed by Tom Weiskopf, it is a classic risk and reward desert course with water in play on six of the holes. Having hosted this event since 1987, there is plenty of course form to analyse and each of the past eight winners had posted a top ten finish in this event prior to winning.
Just as it has in previous years, TPC Scottsdale will play as a par 71, with only three par five holes. At just over 7,200 yards, it isn’t one of the longer courses on Tour and as a result, accurate approach play is of more importance than length off the tee.
Thankfully, the Phoenix Open shouldn’t be afflicted with the same weather problems as last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Strong winds and heavy rain saw play reduced to 54 holes but there doesn’t appear to be any chance of that happening again, even if there are some light rain showers forecast for the first couple of days in Phoenix. The wind shouldn’t be too much of a factor either, peaking at 15 mph on day one.
Phoenix Open Tips
Scottie Scheffler heads up the betting as he attempts to make it three wins in a row at TPC Scottsdale. The world number one has yet to really get his year going but three top twenty finishes are much the same as he had posted at this point last year before kick-starting his year by winning this event.
Scheffler is certainly respected and whilst there is a temptation to play the outright market, I’m inclined to take advantage of the ‘Without Scheffler’ market offered by bet365. Should Scheffler win once again, whoever finishes in second position will be paid as a winner and that could well be to the benefit of Kevin Yu. A former amateur world number one, Yu has yet to win on the PGA Tour and whilst winners of this event have won their maiden PGA Tour win here, this can be a tricky event to cross the finishing line for the first time.
Yu has posted some impressive figures tee to green so far this year. A generally consistent driver, he ranks 6th in SG: Off The Tee for the year to date. Add in elite SG: Approach performances at Pebble Beach and The American Express and he looks like a winner in waiting if he can figure out things on the greens.
A Scottsdale resident, he shouldn’t be at a disadvantage in terms of course knowledge even though he makes his event debut. If a good putting week is ever going to happen, it is likely to be at his home course.
Further encouragement can be taken from his display at this season’s other desert event on the PGA Tour, The American Express. A third place finish that week demonstrated his comfort playing this type of golf. Back Kevin Yu in the ‘Without Scheffler’ market at odds of 61.00 with bet365.
Whilst Yu is my favourite Phoenix Open tip, one market that is worth highlighting again is the ‘Winning Margin.’ This was a market I suggested was worth considering at the Sony Open last month and advised a bet on there being a playoff at odds of 4.00 with bet365. That bet duly came in when Keegan Bradley, Grayson Murray and Ben An all contested a three man playoff and the time could be right to bet that a playoff happens again.
Five of the last eight Phoenix Opens have been won via a playoff. Even looking at a larger sample, eight of the last sixteen events at TPC Scottsdale have been decided via a playoff. Looking in more depth at those sixteen years, five of the years which didn’t feature a playoff were won by a solitary stroke. At a course where there is a rowdy atmosphere and risk and reward finishing holes, nervy finishes are commonplace. Contests are generally close at TPC Scottsdale and odds of 4.50 for there to be a playoff with bet365 are worth taking.
- Selection: Kevin Yu ‘Without Scheffler’ EW (1/4 1-5)
- Best Odds: 61.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 22.55 February 5th 2024. Odds may now differ.
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