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Boxing Mexico Open Tips: 56.00 Expert Pick For This Weekend’s Action
Mexico Open Tip: Thursday, February 22nd
Vidanta Vallarta is once again the host venue for the Mexico Open. Our betting expert Duncan Campbell has prepared his Mexico Open tips for the 2024 edition of this tournament.
- Selection: Cameron Champ EW (1/4 1-5)
- Best Odds: 56.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 11.55 February 20th 2024. Odds may now differ.
In this article:
Our Mexico Open tip is for Cameron Champ to win each-way.
Mexico Open Preview
Thursday, 22nd February, 12:00 (UK)
The Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta hosts the Mexico Open for the third time, having hosted in each of the last two years. A Greg Norman design, long hitters are favoured given wide fairways and a yardage that measures almost 7,500 yards.
Reading back through interview transcripts from the first two renewals of this event indicate just how important approach play is from over 150 yards, with several players commenting on how few wedge shots are hit at this venue. I’m looking for a player who is longer off the tee who also has strong approach stats with his mid to long irons when making this week’s Mexico Open tips.
As is often the case after a Signature event on the PGA Tour, many of the top players have opted to take a week off. Tony Finau is the sole representative of the world’s top 30 to make the trip down to Mexico.
All four days of the tournament should be sunny with the wind not expected to blow more than ten miles per hour. However, gusts of wind could well be stronger given the course is by the ocean.
Mexico Open Tip
There have only been two renewals of the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta but early indications are that course form holds up pretty well. Defending champion, Tony Finau, is one of five players who have posted consecutive top ten finishes at this event and I did give him some consideration given the odds available. Finau can be backed at 7.50 this time around, having gone off as 9.00 second favourite last year in a field that contained a recently crowned Masters winner in Jon Rahm.
Rahm doesn’t participate this time around given his defection to LIV Golf and with many of the Tour’s star names refusing to make the trip to Mexico, the 7.50 doesn’t look unreasonable. However, his performance on the greens remains an area of concern and I take little encouragement from the fact he’s only gained strokes putting on three occasions since that win here ten months ago.
Whilst I couldn’t find a way to include Tony Finau in my staking plan due to reservations over his putting, I am more inclined to take a chance on Cameron Champ at odds of 56.00. Champ is one of those five players who has posted consecutive top ten finishes in this event and the setup at Vidanta Vallarta looks tailored to his game. A long hitter, he leads the Tour in SG: Off The Tee so far in 2024 and clearly enjoys the wide fairways at this week’s course given his results over the past two years.
There is no getting away from the fact Champ’s recent form has been poor. Four missed cuts to kick off the year doesn’t suggest a win is round the corner. However, he was in similar form entering this event last year and wasn’t in a much better position prior to his last PGA Tour win at the 3M Open in 2021. His particular skill set isn’t suited to every event on the PGA Tour but he is capable of making his good weeks count, a fact evidenced by his three PGA Tour wins. Take Champ at 56.00 with bet365 as my Mexico Open tip in the outright market.
Hideki Matsuyama’s winning score of seventeen under par at last week’s Genesis Invitational made it four consecutive specials winners from this PGA Tour column and I’m keen to make it five in a row with a bet on Paul Barjon to be Top Frenchman in Mexico. French golf has been riding the crest of a wave these past 12 months with Mathieu Pavon winning on the PGA Tour and Celine Boutier winning the women’s Evian Championship. However, Pavon has opted out of this week’s event, leaving only Barjon and Victor Perez to fly the French flag.
Barjon was a two time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and has the advantage of course experience, even if that was a missed cut in 2022. That missed cut came in the midst of a poor run of form and it should be noted that he missed the cut on the cutline. Perez has missed the cut in both of his starts in 2024 and whilst his tee to green game is respected, he is too short in the betting. Take Barjon at 2.20 with bet365 to be Top Frenchman.
- Selection: Cameron Champ EW (1/4 1-5)
- Best Odds: 56.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 11.55 February 20th 2024. Odds may now differ.
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