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Farmers Insurance Open Tips: Wednesday, January 24th
Torrey Pines Golf Course is once again the host venue for the Farmers Insurance Open. Our betting expert Duncan Campbell has prepared his Farmers Insurance Open tips for the 2024 edition of this tournament.
- Selection: Hideki Matsuyama EW (1/4 1-5)
- Best Odds: 46.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 22.55 January 23rd 2024. Odds may now differ.
In this article:
Farmers Insurance Open Overview
Wednesday, 24th January, 12:00 (UK)
The Farmers Insurance Open may be the second event on the PGA Tour’s West Coast swing but it offers a completely different test to last week’s American Express event. Whilst making as many birdies as possible on easy courses was the test at The American Express, players must now look to minimise mistakes on two courses that are set up to trip them up. Par is often a good score.
The Farmers Insurance Open does have some shared characteristics to last week’s American Express event, with both tournaments being played over multiple courses. Players will play one round each at the South and North Courses at Torrey Pines before those making the cut play the final two rounds at the South Course.
The South Course, designed by William F. and William P. Bell, is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. Stretching out to 7,765 yards, it was the longest course on the PGA Tour in 2023. The rough is traditionally thick and it will undoubtedly play as the harder of the two courses. The South Course was renovated by Rees Jones in 2019 ahead of the U.S. Open in 2021.
The North Course, also designed by William F. and William P. Bell, is around 500 yards shorter than the South and as such, plays as the easier of the two. Players need to make a score on the North Course and look to pick up shots on the South Course where they can. Both courses play to a par of 72.
Heavy rain has fallen in the past couple of days so the courses are expected to be soft for the duration of the tournament. However, the forecast looks more favourable for the four days of the tournament. A mixture of sunshine and clouds is expected for all four rounds.
Farmers Insurance Open Tips
Nick Dunlap’s out of the blue win at last week’s American Express tournament continued the shock run of winners on the PGA Tour in 2024. All three winners this year have gone off at odds in excess of 151.00, with several giving almost no clue that a win could be imminent. However, that trend could be set to come to an end this week. The average price of winners of this event over the past six years has been 35/1, with those winners averaging six prior wins on Tour before triumphing at Torrey Pines.
The Farmers Insurance Open has been a tournament which has provided fewer shocks over the years. Ten of the last twelve winners had recorded a top 10 finish in this event prior to their win so course experience is valued highly. This is one of the few weeks where you could easily make a case for drawing a line through those players who have either minimal course experience or have shown in the past that the test presented by the courses at Torrey Pines does not suit.
Unsurprisingly, my Farmers insurance Open tip is a player who has shown that he can handle the demands of Torrey Pines. Japanese superstar Hideki Matsuyama boasts three top twelve finishes in the last six years in this event, a record that makes him one to watch.
Matsuyama got off to a slow start last time out at the Sony Open but improved over the course of the week to post a 30th place finish. His scores for the week read 70-69-68-66, with his final round particularly strong tee to green. He gained strokes with every aspect of his game that week with the exception of the putter but given his streaky nature with the flat stick, I’m not overly concerned. Winner of the Masters in 2021, his form hasn’t quite lived up to expectations since but odds of 46.00 with bet365 are reflective of that and I’m happy to back a player who has a higher ceiling than many in this field.
An interesting special market that is worth highlighting is the ‘Winning Score 3-way’ offered by bet365. Each of the last four Farmers Insurance Opens have been won with a score between 13 and 15 under par. When converted into strokes, that is a winning total between 273 and 275 shots. In the Winning Score 3-way market, bet365 are offering odds of 2.10 that the winning score will range between 272 and 276 shots. With a shot cushion either side of the past four winning scores, it looks an interesting bet.
- Selection: Hideki Matsuyama EW (1/4 1-5)
- Best Odds: 46.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 22.55 January 23rd 2024. Odds may now differ.
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