Football 
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Horse Racing 5 Betting Trends for the 2023 Women's World Cup
Another summer and another international football tournament to wager on. As I did previously with the 2022 Men’s World Cup and the covid delayed Euros of 2020, I have taken a close look at the history of the Women’s World Cup and endeavoured to identify a few trends that may be worth considering when you are wagering on this summer’s tournament.
It’s just a few weeks until the tournament kicks off so it’s time to have another look into the past to help you navigate this tournament. The USA and England are the favourites to lift the trophy but what can history tell us of their chances?
Again I will post the usual disclaimers. Firstly there have only been eight Women’s World Cups, with the first held in 1991. Further, I only have betting data for the previous three Women’s World Cups, those of 2011, 2015 and 2019. So we are talking again about relatively small sample sizes.
Lastly, I have excluded 3rd Place playoff matches from the analysis.
So with that being said, let’s take a peek.
In this article:
- Betting on Unders
- Betting on Underdogs
- Betting Against Hosts
- Betting On Defending Champions
- Betting Against Debut Nations
Betting on Unders
The table below shows the average number of goals scored from the Women’s World Cup of 1991 to the most recent in 2019. I have also included the win rate for both Over and Under 2.5 and 3.5 goals.
Women’s World Cup Average Goals
| World Cup | Average Goals | Over 2.5 Goals | Under 2.5 Goals | Over 3.5 Goals | Under 3.5 Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 3.72 | 72.0% | 28.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| 1995 | 3.88 | 64.0% | 36.0% | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 1999 | 3.94 | 67.7% | 32.3% | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 2003 | 3.29 | 67.7% | 32.3% | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| 2007 | 3.39 | 58.1% | 41.9% | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 2011 | 2.52 | 51.6% | 48.4% | 25.8% | 74.2% |
| 2015 | 2.84 | 47.1% | 52.9% | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| 2019 | 2.76 | 54.9% | 45.1% | 19.6% | 80.4% |
| TOTAL | 3.20 | 58.7% | 41.3% | 35.1% | 64.9% |
The average number of goals scored across the eight women’s World Cups is 3.20 goals.
However there has been a clear reduction in the number of goals scored as the years progressed.
From 1991 to 1999, the average number of goals scored was 3.85. From 2003 to 2007, the average was 3.34 and over the most recent three World Cup’s, from 2011 to 2019, was 2.74.
We can also see a distinct drop in the occurrence rates of matches ending with Over 2.5 goals and Over 3.5 goals scored. For example, in each of the Women’s World Cups, 1991, 1995 and 1999 the occurrence rates of matches ending over 3.5 goals were in excess of 50%. However this rate has dropped significantly across the last three World Cups, with just 19.6% of matches going Over 3.5 goals in the most recent World Cup of 2019.
With the reduced number of goals scored, betting on lower than anticipated goal totals in the Women’s World Cup has been profitable over the last three tournaments.
In fact betting on Under 3.5 goals in each match at even stakes has been profitable in each of the last three tournaments.
Women’s World Cup Over Under 3.5 Goals Profitability
| World Cup | Over 3.5 Goals P/L | Under 3.5 Goals P/L | Over 3.5 Goals ROI% | Under 3.5 Goals ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | -3.11 | +4.55 | -10.0% | +14.7% |
| 2015 | -13.43 | +0.25 | -26.3% | +0.5% |
| 2019 | -30.8 | +8.16 | -60.4% | +16.0% |
| TOTAL | -47.34 | +12.96 | -35.6% | +9.7% |
If you had bet £10 on Under 3.5 goals in every match of the last three Women’s World Cups, you would have seen a profit of £129.60, a return of +9.7% across 133 matches. Had you bet £10 on Over 3.5 goals, you would have seen a loss of £473.40, return of -35.6%.
Betting on Under 3.5 goals has been profitable in both the Group Stage and the Knockout Stage. The ROI% on Under 3.5 goals in the Group Stage has been +9.8% and in the Knockout Stage +9.6%.
Betting on the Over Under Line has likewise been profitable. In fact it has been profitable in every Women’s World Cup 2011, 2015 and 2019.
Women’s World Cup Over Under Line Profitability
| World Cup | Over Wins | Under Wins | Over P/L | Under P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 14.25 | 16.75 | -3.485 | +0.71 |
| 2015 | 22.5 | 28.5 | -7.175 | +2.995 |
| 2019 | 24 | 27 | -4.64 | +1.005 |
| TOTAL | 60.75 | 72.25 | -15.3 | +4.71 |
Betting on Under has seen a total of 72.25 wins and 60.75 losses, a win rate of 54.3%. In terms of profitability, had you bet £10 on Under in every match 2011, 2015 and 2019, you would have seen a profit of £47.10, a ROI% of +3.5%.
Betting on Underdogs
Betting on Underdogs in the Asian Handicap market has been profitable across each of the last three Women’s World Cups. Had you bet £10 on every Underdog from +0.25 goals upwards, you would have seen a profit of £33.50, a ROI% of +2.7%.
The table below shows the win rates and profitability for every Asian handicap line threshold.
For example, we can see that the profit for betting on Underdogs receiving a handicap of +1 goal or greater was +8.845 units, with a win rate of 59.54%.
| => Asian HCap | AH Wins | AH Losses | AH WIn % | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L | AH Win ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| => 0.25 | 68.5 | 56.5 | 54.80% | +3.35 | -15.61 | +2.68% |
| => 0.5 | 60.5 | 46.5 | 56.54% | +6.105 | -16.78 | +5.71% |
| = >0.75 | 51.5 | 35.5 | 59.20% | +9.655 | -17.95 | +11.10% |
| = >1 | 45.25 | 30.75 | 59.54% | +8.845 | -16.075 | +11.64% |
| => 1.25 | 37.75 | 21.25 | 63.98% | +11.675 | -17.725 | +19.79% |
| =>1.5 | 32.25 | 17.75 | 64.50% | +10.42 | -15.605 | +20.84% |
| =>1.75 | 23.25 | 13.75 | 62.84% | +6.96 | -10.555 | +18.81% |
| =>2 | 19 | 12 | 61.29% | +5.23 | -7.9 | +16.87% |
| =>2.25 | 14.5 | 9.5 | 60.42% | +3.36 | -5.83 | +14.00% |
| =>2.5 | 12 | 6 | 66.67% | +4.7 | -6.51 | +26.11% |
| =>2.75 | 10 | 4 | 71.43% | +4.95 | -6.42 | +35.36% |
| =>3 | 9 | 3 | 75.00% | +5.0 | -6.17 | +41.67% |
| =>3.5 | 7 | 3 | 70.00% | +3.27 | -4.17 | +32.70% |
The greatest total profit was seen in betting on Underdogs receiving a handicap of +1.25 goals or greater. Betting £10 on Underdogs of +1.25 goals or greater saw a profit of £116.75, a ROI% of +19.79%.
The table below shows the results for betting on teams receiving a handicap of at least +1.25 goals across each of the last three World Cups.
Performance of Underdogs Receiving +1.25 Goals or More
| World Cup | AH Wins | AH Losses | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 9.75 | 2.25 | +6.41 | -7.77 |
| 2015 | 12 | 7 | +3.21 | -5.12 |
| 2019 | 16 | 12 | +2.055 | -4.835 |
| TOTAL | 37.75 | 21.25 | +11.675 | -17.725 |
Betting on teams getting +1.25 goals or greater in the Asian handicap market has returned a profit in each of the last three Women’s World Cup with a win rate of almost 64%.
Betting Against Host Nations
Host nations have not performed well in the Asian handicap market across the last three Women’s World Cups. Yes, we are working with a small sample size here.
Performance of Host Nations in Asian Handicap Market
| World Cup | Host | AH Wins | AH Losses | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Germany | 1 | 3 | -2.1 | +1.83 |
| 2015 | Canada | 1.5 | 3.5 | -2.05 | +1.35 |
| 2019 | France | 1 | 4 | -3.07 | +2.19 |
| TOTAL | 3.5 | 10.5 | -7.22 | +5.37 |
Across the last three Women’s World Cups, host nations have gone 3.5 and 10.5 against the handicap, a win rate of 25%.
Had you bet £10 on the teams opposing host nations in the Asian handicap market, you would have made a profit of £53.70, for a return of +38.6%. Had you bet £10 on each host nation in the Asian handicap market, you would have seen a loss of £72.20 from the £140 staked.
How will both Australia and New Zealand fare in the 2023 World Cup?
Betting On Defending Champions
Defending Champions have outperformed both the Asian Handicap and 1X2 markets in the last three Women’s World Cups.
Performance of Defending Champions in 1X2 Market
| World Cup | Def. Champ | Wins | Draws | Losses | Win P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Germany | 3 | 1 | 0 | -0.28 | +1.30 | -4.00 |
| 2015 | Japan | 6 | 0 | 1 | +2.81 | -7.00 | -5.28 |
| 2019 | USA | 7 | 0 | 0 | +3.74 | -7.00 | -7.00 |
| TOTAL | 16 | 1 | 1 | +6.28 | -12.70 | -16.28 |
Had you bet £10 on Defending Champions in the 1X2 market across the last three Women’s World Cups you would have seen a profit of £62.80, for a return of +34.9%.
In fact Defending Champions have won 16 of their 18 matches across the last three World Cups, with just a single draw and a single loss.
Performance of Defending Champions in Asian Handicap Market
| World Cup | Def. Champ | AH Wins | AH Losses | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Germany | 1 | 3 | -2.10 | +1.83 |
| 2015 | Japan | 3.25 | 3.75 | -0.57 | +0.08 |
| 2019 | USA | 5.5 | 1.5 | +3.31 | -4.05 |
| TOTAL | 9.75 | 8.25 | +0.65 | -2.14 |
In the Asian handicap market, Defending Champions have hit a win rate of 54.16%, with a compiled 9.75 wins from 18 matches.
If you had bet £10 on each Defending Champion in the Asian handicap market, you would have seen a profit, albeit a slender profit of £6.45 for a return of +3.6%.
How will the USA perform as defending champions at the 2023 World Cup?
Betting Against Debut Nations
Debut nations have not performed well against the market in the previous three Women’s World Cup.
Performance of Debut Nations in 1X2 Market
| World Cup | Wins | Draws | Losses | Win P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -6.00 | -1.41 | -0.05 |
| 2015 | 5 | 4 | 18 | -11.40 | -3.32 | +10.65 |
| 2019 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -10.78 | -7.04 | +0.13 |
| TOTAL | 6 | 6 | 33 | -28.18 | -11.77 | +10.73 |
Debut Nations have won just six of their 45 matches played through the 2011, 2015 and 2019 Women’s World Cups while their opponents have won 33 of the 45 matches.
Had you bet £10 on their opponents to win each of these matches you would have seen a profit of £107.30, a return of +23.84%. Had you bet £10 on debut nations to win each of their matches you would have seen a loss of -£281.80, a ROI% of -62.62%.
There are a total of seven nations making their debut at the 2023 Women’s World Cup. They are:
- Philippines
- Vietnam
- Morocco
- Zambia
- Haiti
- Panama
- Portugal
Recent history suggests it may be a profitable play to bet against these nations at the 2023 Women’s World Cup.
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