Will Birmingham Surpass Wolves’ League One Points Record?

The 1.01 price around Birmingham City’s neck to win League One says all you need to know about the likelihood of lifting third-tier silverware in May.

After a head-turning summer of incomings and promises to bounce straight back up to the Championship from Blues’ higher-ups and large sections of the fanbase, Birmingham City have, nearly, done just that.

But how memorable will their 2024/25 season be in a decade or so? Will they leave a lasting legacy and break Wolves’ League One record points return? Sam Ingram, with a bit of help from BETSiE and Ryan Deeney, surveys the scene at the summit.

BETSiE Fancies Blues To Outmuscle Wolves

No team has ever returned 82 points after 35 League One appearances. Charlton Athletic in 2011/12 came the closest, with 78 returned in the same timeframe. The Addicks chalked up 101 points in their title-winning campaign 13 years ago.

Wolverhampton Wanderers, who hold the record points tally of 103, ‘only’ amassed 74 points after 35 matches in this division. Birmingham City are five points clear of that Wolves juggernaut with 11 games to play following a 2-1 win at St. Andrews.

The midweek Stevenage win capped Birmingham’s 19th unbeaten League One home fixture in 2024/25. Not one team from the third tier has been able to get one over on Chris Davies’ side in their own backyard. Sixteen of those 19 fixtures have yielded three points, with three draws the minuscule blot on a near-flawless home record.

Our in-house data projection model, BETSiE, predicts that Birmingham (104.8 Expected Points) will have enough to harness momentum and edge past League One centurions Wolves (103 points), Charlton (101), Plymouth Argyle (2022/23: 101) and Sheffield United (2016/17: 100).

BETSiE League One Projections

What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables. Some will call her a Supercomputer, others will coin it an AI sports betting model, but she’s BETSiE to us.

Planning To Leave A Mark On League One

In a bid to understand how the average Blues supporter views the journey in League One up until this point and how one foresees the remainder of the season amidst a record points chase, we caught up with Ryan Deeney, who covers all things Birmingham City on his Substack: Ryan’s Substack (and X! – @RyanDeeney2194):

“In pre-season, despite concerns from the outside world that we may be in for a shock following relegation to League One, fans pondered whether we would break Wolves’ League One points record. If we can collect 22 points from our remaining 11 matches, we will achieve it.”

“Everything about our season to date suggests we should. We’ve faced all of the top 9 and our record against the rest reads: 15-3-1.”

“The big concerns lie around the schedule and whether we drop off once promotion and the title are confirmed. And that could come early – our current lead means we’ll be promoted by the time the EFL Trophy final comes around and we’ll likely have six games to play.”

No Drop-Offs

“I don’t think Davies will accept a drop-off. He, owner Tom Wagner and others at the club planned to win the title and leave a mark on League One. I think the players are up for that too.”

“But, we’ve got seven away games to play, a trip to Wembley and our final six will likely be played within 15 days, starting on Good Friday. We’ve already shown a couple of signs of slacking off a little late in games and maybe we will be punished.”

“Will we do it? I think so. Because I don’t see us losing many, if any games. We’ve got four left at home. A number of mid-table sides with little to play for. We will probably need two or three wins from those final six and I can’t imagine we won’t manage that.”

“Can we break Reading’s EFL record? We’ll see…”

The Numbers Behind A Record-Breaking Season

With 11 games to play and a 2.00 points per90 average required to surpass Wolves as the best League One team ever, it’s no wonder why Birmingham City supporters might be confident. Up to the 35-game mark, the Blues are operating on a healthy 2.34 points per90 return with less than a quarter of the season remaining.

Analysing the run-in ahead of Chris Davies’ squad, there is an argument to be made that their next 11 games, on average, might be a touch kinder than the 35 sides previously faced. The opponents’ points-per-game average total of 1.38 is a more significant total compared to what’s left to face: 1.21.

Of course, not everything is as black and white as that. Birmingham’s most imposing enemy in between them and breaking records is themselves. It’s complacency. How many times have we seen a team win the league and taper off in the following weeks as the carrot at the end of the stick is gobbled up in terms of automatic promotion and clinching silverware?

Reading’s EFL Record is Safe. For Now

In the Championship last season, where Birmingham were relegated, bookmakers offered odds on whether Leicester City would head to the Premier League with both a trophy under one arm and a record points total under the other. The Foxes lost three games and drew once in their final ten outings of a dominant 46-game stretch with the league title wrapped up. Reading’s 106-point EFL record is safe for another season yet.

Add into the mix that Birmingham will face each of League One’s current bottom four: Shrewsbury, Crawley, Burton and Cambridge (on the final day), in that order. Earlier on in the season, many would look at those four fixtures and predict 12 easy points. But, now, with all four clubs scrapping to stay in the division? Those outings might have a different feel to them.

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