Football | Friday, February 16, 2024 8:14 AM (Revised at: Friday, February 16, 2024 9:14 AM)

Valencia vs Sevilla Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Valencia vs Sevilla prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview - IMAGO / CordonPress - Spain King Cup soccer match Atletico de Madrid vs Sevilla at Civitas Metropolitano stadium in Madrid, 25 January 2024 Sergio Ramos.

Tom Winch

European Football Expert

Our expert, Tom Winch, has picked out three selections for this La Liga clash in our Valencia vs Sevilla prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. The home side have performed well at home this season whilst Sevilla aren’t exactly an inspiring outfit.

Our Valencia vs Sevilla prediction is for Valencia to win the match 1-0.

Valencia vs Sevilla Prediction, Team News, Standings and Lineups Preview

In this article:

This week’s bettingexpert Football Podcast looking ahead at the weekend’s schedule

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Valencia vs Sevilla Tip 1: Hosts Tough To Crack

Spain, La Liga, Saturday, February 17th, 20:00 (UK)

It’s fair to say that these two sides aren’t quite as good as they once were, entering the weekend’s clash in 9th and 13th, but given this encounter is being played at Estadio de Mestalla, I want to side with Valencia.

Ruben Baraja’s side is extremely solid at this venue. They’ve racked up 23 points from a possible 33 here. They don’t score huge amounts, but defensively, they’re impressive. Los Ches have bagged 15 times here this term whilst conceding just six, a smaller amount than any other side.

Valencia has a 7-2-2 (W-D-L) record at home this campaign, winning the xG battle in eight of those 11 matches and often allowing their opponents very few chances.

Sevilla have won just five games across the 2023/24 La Liga season. They have a 2-3-6 (W-D-L) on their travels and don’t appeal here. Youssef En Nesyri is the only goal threat; he has seven to his name this term.

With the away side winning the Xg battle just twice this term and having created less than 1.0xG in ten of 11 away days, backing against them seems a sensible angle.

Valencia vs Sevilla Tip 1: Valencia -0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.95
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 6/10

Valencia vs Sevilla Tip 2: Another Dull Display

Valencia is rarely involved in high-scoring thrillers at this venue. Just 21 goals have been scored here in 11 matches. Four of their matches have seen three or more goals, five clashes have ended with zero or one goal, and I’m expecting this encounter to have a limited number of goals on Saturday night.

It’s no guarantee that Sevilla score here, they’ve been shut out on four occasions this season. Quique Sanchez Flores’ side has created a remarkably low number of xG; only Las Palmas and Cadiz have worse statistics.

Valencia themselves are alongside Sevilla for a low xG figure. The pair are amongst the bottom half for big chances created, with Valencia averaging the second-lowest number of shots on target per match.

Defences may well come out on top in this clash. Neither side will want to go home empty-handed. The visitors may resort to a back five, sitting deep and allowing very little space for the hosts. I’d expect that they’ll be happy leaving here with a point.

Historical data is on our side too. The last five meetings here have seen two or fewer goals. Another low-scoring, dull affair would do nicely.

Valencia vs Sevilla Tip 2: Under 2.25 Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.93
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 4/10

Valencia vs Sevilla Tip 3: Hugoal Duro

If Valencia were to get a result here, I’d expect Hugo Duro to be heavily involved. The 24-year-old is having a super campaign for the hosts; he’s bagged ten times across the campaign so far, with six arriving at this venue.

I do not doubt that Duro will start from the get-go in this one. He’s started 23 of Valencia’s 24 games this term and has scored in his two previous outings here.

Each of Duro’s ten goals has come from inside the box. His shot statistics aren’t exactly wild, but that’s understandable, given the side he plays for. Valencia’s main man has scored against Real Madrid, Girona, Atletico, and twice versus Bilbao. He’s not one to shy away from a big occasion.

The price is decent enough, given it’s a game where goals aren’t expected in large numbers. Duro will want to continue his strong season, as a big move could be on the cards. He’s the biggest goal threat, and I’m hoping he can make it three goals in as many games in front of the home supporters.

Valencia vs Sevilla Tip 3: Hugo Duro Anytime Goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 3.10
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 2/10

Valencia vs Sevilla Predictions odds via bet365 as at 13:00, February 12th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Valencia vs Sevilla Team News and Possible Lineups: Slowly But Surely For Sevilla

Andre Almeida and Thierry Correia will both miss this clash; the Portuguese duo are suffering from back and thigh injuries, respectively. Diego Lopez is likely to return after missing Valencia’s most recent clash against Las Palmas.

Sevilla was missing a number of players in their impressive 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid at the weekend; Alejo Veliz, Salas, Lukebakio, Agoume, Marco, Diaz, Gudelj and Nianzou didn’t feature.

The latter six names may return just in time but are unlikely to be rushed back into the starting XI. En Nesyri’s return is a huge boost after he was away representing Morocco at AFCON.

Valencia possible starting lineup:
Mamardashvili; Foulquier, Mosquera, Ozkacar, Gaya, Guerra, Pepelu, Guillamon, Perez, Yaremchuk; Duro

Sevilla possible starting lineup:
Nyland; Navas, Bade, Ramos, Acuna, Torres, Sow, Soumare, Ocampos, En Nesyri; Romero

The Predicted Valencia vs Sevilla La Liga Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the La Liga standings ahead of the Valencia vs Sevilla, currently 9th vs 15th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Valencia vs Sevilla Standings

POSITION	CLUB	GAMES	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
1	Real Madrid	38	26.9	7.2	4.0	77.9	30.3	47.5	87.7
2	Barcelona	38	24.0	7.8	6.2	79.4	47.3	32.1	79.8
3	Girona	38	23.8	8.1	6.1	79.1	47.8	31.3	79.5
4	Atl. Madrid	38	22.8	6.4	8.8	72.2	42.8	29.4	74.7
5	Ath Bilbao	38	21.1	9.3	7.5	69.1	37.1	32.0	72.7
6	Sociedad	38	15.4	13.9	8.7	52.1	37.4	14.7	60.2
7	Betis	38	13.6	14.7	9.7	46.5	45.9	0.6	55.5
8	Valencia	38	15.0	9.1	13.9	45.2	45.4	-0.2	54.1
9	Alaves	38	13.2	8.8	16.0	43.8	48.1	-4.3	48.5
10	Getafe	38	11.9	12.7	13.4	47.7	53.4	-5.8	48.4
11	Las Palmas	38	12.6	8.9	16.5	36.5	42.3	-5.9	46.7
12	Vallecano	38	10.6	12.9	14.5	38.3	48.4	-10.1	44.6
13	Osasuna	38	11.9	8.8	17.3	43.8	57.3	-13.5	44.5
14	Celta	38	10.1	10.5	17.5	45.2	55.9	-10.7	40.6
15	Villarreal	38	10.5	9.2	18.4	54.1	73.7	-19.6	40.6
16	Mallorca	38	8.0	15.1	14.9	35.7	48.8	-13.1	39.1
17	Sevilla	38	8.5	11.6	18.0	46.8	60.9	-14.2	37.0
18	Cadiz	38	5.2	13.7	19.1	27.2	55.6	-28.4	29.2
19	Granada	38	6.2	9.6	22.3	40.2	69.8	-29.7	28.1
20	Almeria	38	5.1	9.3	23.5	44.3	76.7	-32.4	24.7

Match Stats: Uninspiring Sevilla Stats make Valencia Value

The previous five meetings here have seen two or fewer goals.
Valencia have conceded the fewest number of goals at home in La Liga this season.
Valencia have collected 23 of their 35 points at home this season.
Sevilla have won just two away games all season, and five in total.

Valencia Fixtures: A Mixed Bag

Vs Granada (A)
Vs Real Madrid (H)
Vs Getafe (H)
Vs Villarreal (A)
Vs Mallorca (H)

Sevilla Fixtures: A Tricky Few Weeks

Vs Real Madrid (A)
Vs Real Sociedad (H)
Vs Almeria (A)
Vs Celta Vigo (H)
Vs Getafe (A)

SAFER GAMBLING

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