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Horse Racing Toulouse vs Lens Prediction: Tips and Best Bets Preview
Welcome to our Toulouse vs Lens prediction, tips and best bets preview as two teams now eliminated from the Coupe de France do battle in southwest France. Toulouse won their most recent Ligue 1 game but are still hovering perilously close to the relegation zone.
Lens, meanwhile, will be hoping to get back into European contention after losing three successive domestic fixtures. French expert Steve Wyss brings his analysis and best bets to the table.
Toulouse vs Lens Prediction and Tips Preview
- Toulouse vs Lens Tip 1: BTTS – Yes
- Toulouse vs Lens Tip 2: Over 2.5 Goals
- Toulouse vs Lens Tip 3: Thijs Dallinga Anytime Scorer
In this article:
- Toulouse vs Lens Team News
- The Predicted Ligue 1 Table
- Toulouse vs Lens Stats Preview
- How to watch Toulouse vs Lens
- Safer Gambling
Toulouse vs Lens Tip 1: Offensive underachievement must come good for both teams
France, Ligue 1, Sunday 28th January, 16:05 (UK)
Both sides are remarkably similar in their offensive and defensive numbers this season. Two teams who have a combined 15.72 xG underachievement go head to head, and I do not believe that this type of metric can be sustained throughout the whole season. Quite clearly, chances are being created, but not enough of them are taken.
Lens missing an early penalty vs PSG last week sums up their season from an offensive perspective. The visitors have badly missed Lois Openda, who was such a reliable scorer for them last year. You have to think they will start putting the ball into the back of the net more regularly at some stage, though.
Toulouse have also been guilty of missing opportunities. They do have a fairly reliable striker in Thijs Dallinga, but even he has underachieved his xG of 7.11. It is also interesting to note that each defence has been overachieving to a combined level of 15.39 xGA.
Both goalkeepers Brice Samba and Guillaume Restes have enjoyed strong campaigns, but for how long can they keep saving their teams? I don’t fully trust either defence, so at worst, I think we see both teams score. As a bare minimum, then 1-1 feels very possible if you track the underlying metrics.
- Toulouse vs Lens Tip 1: BTTS – Yes (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.75
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 9/10
Toulouse vs Lens Tip 2: Goals to flow with defenses vulnerable
As mentioned in the above preview, the underlying metrics suggest that both teams should be scoring more goals but also conceding more goals. Lens has a big suspension at the back, with Jonathan Gradit ruled out.
They also have defensive midfielder Salis Abdul Samed on international duty with Ghana. On paper, they might have more of a soft underbelly compared to usual, which Toulouse can take advantage of. Both teams rank in the top five for most under 2.5 goal games this season, but I think we need to look beyond the stats, and this individual game feels like it has goal potential.
Toulouse is not a team you ever feel is very secure. They drew 3-3 vs third-tier side Rouen last week in the French Cup and continually look shaky. Young keeper Guillaume Restes has been one of the stars of their season, but they can’t keep relying on him forever. The weather forecast is set to be decent this Sunday in southwest France, with sunny conditions and temperatures around 17 degrees Celsius.
This should promote quite a higher tempo game of football, which can often lead towards more goals. There’s a combination of team news, style, weather and metrics that point towards under 2.5 goals at close to evens. The results of both teams say go under, but I think let’s focus on the actual footballing side and go over it.
- Toulouse vs Lens Tip 2: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.95
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 9/10
Toulouse vs Lens Tip 3: Dalinga danger can’t be ignored
Dutch striker Thijs Dallinga scored 18 goals across all competitions last season en route towards Toulouse winning the Coupe de France. He has only netted five times in Ligue 1 this term, which has perhaps been one of the reasons Toulouse has struggled somewhat in the bottom half of the table.
Dallinga’s better performances have come in the Europa League, and across all competitions, he’s scored ten times in 26 appearances. He is still a quality performer and knows how to find the back of the net.
I think it’s a surprise to see Dallinga priced as big as 2.75 to score anytime here. A lot of the reason is probably because Toulouse are a significant underdog in the game and are underrated offensively.
Lens are missing several players and the suspension of Jonathan Gradit at the back will massively help attackers such as Dallinga. He will no doubt get chances, so this price is very generous, especially for someone with such a decent proven record and on penalty duty. He has not been as clinical as he’d like this season, but this could be a chance to take centre stage.
- Toulouse vs Lens Tip 3: Thijs Dalinga Anytime Scorer (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.75
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Toulouse vs Lens Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:32, January 23rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Toulouse vs Lens Team News Preview: Lens with several absences
Toulouse doesn’t have many injury concerns, but three players are on AFCON duty: Logan Costa, Moussa Diarra and Frank Magri. Centre-back Jonathan Gradit is suspended for Lens after his red card vs PSG.
Lens have a plethora of absences, with four players on international duty, including midfielder Salis Abdul Samed. They have injury doubts, which include Ruben Aguilar, Massadio Haidara and Deiver Machado.
The Predicted Ligue 1 Table
| POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 34 | 22.7 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 78.4 | 31.3 | 47.1 | 75.3 |
| 2 | Nice | 34 | 18.1 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 43.4 | 26.2 | 17.2 | 63.2 |
| 3 | Brest | 34 | 17.5 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 52.2 | 33.7 | 18.4 | 60.3 |
| 4 | Monaco | 34 | 17.6 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 60.1 | 44.2 | 15.9 | 59.5 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 15.5 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 48.3 | 31.8 | 16.5 | 57.4 |
| 6 | Marseille | 34 | 15.3 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 52.1 | 35.1 | 17.0 | 56.7 |
| 7 | Reims | 34 | 15.9 | 6.0 | 12.1 | 47.9 | 42.9 | 5.0 | 53.8 |
| 8 | Lens | 34 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 47.4 | 40.0 | 7.3 | 51.5 |
| 9 | Rennes | 34 | 12.2 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 50.0 | 42.0 | 8.1 | 47.4 |
| 10 | Strasbourg | 34 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 38.0 | 43.3 | -5.3 | 45.0 |
| 11 | Montpellier | 34 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 41.3 | 45.1 | -3.8 | 41.2 |
| 12 | Le Havre | 34 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 13.6 | 36.4 | 44.8 | -8.3 | 39.4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 34 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 17.1 | 38.5 | 56.4 | -17.9 | 35.2 |
| 14 | Nantes | 34 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 18.3 | 39.1 | 59.3 | -20.2 | 34.0 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 34 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 15.2 | 33.8 | 50.5 | -16.6 | 33.1 |
| 16 | Metz | 34 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 18.9 | 28.8 | 53.3 | -24.5 | 29.5 |
| 17 | Clermont | 34 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 18.9 | 28.4 | 55.4 | -27.1 | 28.1 |
| 18 | Lorient | 34 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 18.7 | 35.6 | 64.4 | -28.9 | 26.4 |
Toulouse vs Lens Stats Preview:
- Toulouse have only won three Ligue 1 games all season. Only Lorient have fewer victories (2)
- Toulouse have drawn 5 out of 8 home games
- Lens have only won 2 out of 9 road fixtures in Ligue 1
- Both sides rank in the top five for Under 2.5 Goals this season
- Toulouse have obtained more cards than any other side in Ligue 1
- Both sides rank in the top five for fouls committed
- Lens have won the last five H2H meetings
How To Watch
- Toulouse vs Lens, Ligue 1
- Date and Time: Sunday 28th January, 16:05 (UK)
- How to Watch or Stream on TV (UK): TNT Sports
SAFER GAMBLING
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