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Horse Racing Torino vs Juventus Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
The Turin Derby, also known as ‘The Derby della Mole’, is Serie A’s big match this weekend, so here’s a Torino vs Juventus prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.
Prediction: Torino 1-1 Juventus
Is the Bianconeri crisis over after back-to-back home wins against Lazio and Fiorentina? Can Torino win the derby for the first time in nine years? Read the analysis of our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, to find out.
And if you’re looking for more content from Daniele, here’s his take on Lazio vs Salernitana.
- Torino vs Juventus Tip 1: Juventus Asian Handicap -0.25
- Torino vs Juventus Tip 2: Numbers of Goals In The Match: 2 or 3
- Torino vs Juventus Tip 3: Match Result: Draw
Torino vs Juventus Prediction 1: Has the ‘Old Lady’ turned the corner?
Italy, Serie A, Saturday, April 13th, 17:00 (UK)
Juve went back to winning ways in Serie A thanks to a 1-0 success over Fiorentina where Massimiliano Allegri’s men produced two very different halves of football.
Aggressive and pugnacious right from the start, Juventus took the lead thanks to Federico Gatti’s fourth goal of the season (no other central defender has scored more in Europe’s top five leagues) and had three goals disallowed for offside.
After the break Fiorentina played at a higher rhythm and forced Juventus to defend deep.
Only Wojciech Szczęsny’s miraculous fingertips save prevented Nico Gonzalez from scoring the equaliser as Juve ended the match with only 25% ball possession and less than half (217 to 647) of the passes attempted by La Viola.
Not a game for the purists but a textbook Bianconeri win, the twelfth of this Serie A campaign without conceding a goal, which helped them to consolidate the third place in the table after Bologna’s scoreless draw in Frosinone.
It’s obvious Juve have more in their locker to produce better attacking displays, they have Serie A’s sixth best attack but their xG (expected goals) differential is the second-highest (+8.34) in the league.
Perhaps lately some results haven’t gone Juve’s way (for example the recent 2-1 defeat in Napoli) because of its strikers imprecision in front of goal (Dusan Vlahovic is top for ‘big chances’ missed, 16), but equally, far too often, the team seem to play with the handbrake on.
- AC Milan vs Roma Prediction 1: Juventus Asian Handicap -0.25 (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.92
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 3/10
Torino vs Juventus Prediction 2: Two stuttering attacks
The good news for the Bianconeri is that they’ve kept three clean sheets in the last four games in all competitions, and victories against Lazio in the Coppa Italia and last Sunday have boosted their morale.
Torino were unlucky and a touch naive in their 3-2 defeat against Empoli.
After equalising twice with Duvan Zapata (he’s been involved in ten goals in 2024, only Vlahovic has done better with 11 goal involvements), the Granata conceded deep in stoppage time due to a defensive mistake by Raoul Bellanova.
A bad defeat for il Toro that are now four points away from the seventh spot, occupied by Napoli, that would guarantee qualification for next season’s Europa Conference League.
Despite having only Italy’s 15th-best attack (with fewer goals than Cagliari and Frosinone), Torino’s scoring numbers have improved lately, thanks also to the good form of its Colombian striker.
They’ve netted in all their last four matches and at home they’re hard to beat, having lost only twice this season (3-0 against Inter and 2-0 against Lazio, but in this match, Torino’s xG was 1.96).
- Torino vs Juventus Prediction 2: Numbers of Goals In The Match: 2 or 3 (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Torino vs Juventus Prediction 3: Granata are searching for a historic win
Ivan Juric’s men have defeated Napoli and Atalanta (both 3-0) at the ‘Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino’, and success on Saturday against their city rivals could seriously turn an average season into a positive one.
Because of course this is Serie A’s most one-sided derby, a fixture the Bianconeri have dominated through the decades with the exception of Torino’s heroic and rare wins.
The ‘Cuore Toro’ myth (literally Toro’s (big) heart, a word pun from ‘Cuore d’oro’, golden heart), a typical expression to describe the Granata’s fearless spirit, has been fuelled by their constant struggles against Juve, Italy’s most prestigious and victorious club.
The hosts haven’t won the Derby since 26 April 2015 (2-1 thanks to goals from Darmian, Quagliarella and Pirlo for Juventus).
From that day the Bianconeri have been successful in 12 matches (including the reverse fixture this season, with a 2-0 scoreline) and there have been three draws.
In 207 official games Juventus have scored 311 times against Torino’s 244 goals.
However, given Juventus’s difficult season, Torino might have a serious chance of breaking the negative record.
Interestingly, the Bianconeri are winless in their last four away games and have never scored more than one goal when they faced top sides away from home.
- Torino vs Juventus Prediction 3: Match Result: Draw (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 3.10
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 2/10
Torino vs Juventus Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:50, April 8th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Torino vs Juventus Team News and Possible Lineups: no changes for Allegri
For the Granata, Sanabria might start upfront, thanks to the winning goal against Monza two weeks ago, alongside Zapata with the support of Vlasic. Linetty and Ricci will play in midfield. The flanks will be occupied by Bellanova and Lazaro, even if Masina is in contention with the Austrian international to start the derby.
Allegri will confirm the XI that defeated Fiorentina last Sunday. Chiesa and Vlahovic will play up front. Cambiaso and Kostic will be the wing-backs, with McKennie, Locatelli and Rabiot in the middle of the pitch. Bremer, Danilo and Gatti will be the defensive trio.
Schuurs, Ilic, Djidji and Ginetis are not available for the hosts; in the Juve’s camp Milik is out, Pogba and Fagioli are suspended.
Torino possible starting lineup:
Milinkovic-Savic; Tameze, Buongiorno, Rodriguez; Bellanova, Linetty, Ricci, Vojvoda; Vlasic; Sanabria, Zapata.
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Gatti, Bremer, Danilo; Cambiaso, McKennie, Locatelli, Rabiot, Kostic; Chiesa, Vlahovic.
The Predicted Torino vs Juventus Serie A Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the Torino vs Juventus, currently 9th vs 3rd, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Torino vs Juventus Standings Prediction
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 29.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 88.1 | 23.9 | 64.2 | 93.2 |
| 2 | Juventus | 38 | 23.4 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 58.6 | 26.2 | 32.4 | 79.6 |
| 3 | AC Milan | 38 | 21.8 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 70.0 | 47.8 | 22.2 | 72.5 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 38 | 21.0 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 71.7 | 39.9 | 31.8 | 69.2 |
| 5 | Bologna | 38 | 17.2 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 53.1 | 37.3 | 15.8 | 63.9 |
| 6 | AS Roma | 38 | 17.6 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 62.0 | 43.6 | 18.5 | 61.2 |
| 7 | Lazio | 38 | 17.7 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 47.7 | 38.8 | 8.9 | 60.5 |
| 8 | Napoli | 38 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 55.6 | 44.0 | 11.6 | 59.6 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15.9 | 8.3 | 13.8 | 54.3 | 46.1 | 8.2 | 56.0 |
| 10 | Torino | 38 | 13.6 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 36.4 | 35.3 | 1.1 | 53.7 |
| 11 | Monza | 38 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 14.5 | 37.7 | 50.0 | -12.3 | 45.9 |
| 12 | Genoa | 38 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 14.6 | 38.2 | 47.2 | -9.0 | 44.9 |
| 13 | Udinese | 38 | 7.3 | 17.5 | 13.2 | 39.7 | 54.6 | -14.8 | 39.4 |
| 14 | Lecce | 38 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 16.9 | 41.0 | 60.6 | -19.6 | 39.3 |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 38 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 19.7 | 47.9 | 65.8 | -17.9 | 38.1 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 38 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 20.4 | 47.0 | 73.6 | -26.6 | 36.8 |
| 17 | Empoli | 38 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 19.0 | 32.4 | 56.8 | -24.4 | 36.2 |
| 18 | Verona | 38 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 18.8 | 36.8 | 52.2 | -15.4 | 34.8 |
| 19 | Cagliari | 38 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 20.4 | 39.0 | 68.6 | -29.6 | 33.1 |
| 20 | Salernitana | 38 | 4.2 | 9.7 | 24.0 | 31.3 | 76.3 | -44.9 | 22.4 |
Match Stats: an utter Juve dominance
- Juventus are unbeaten in the last 15 Turin derbies, having won 12 of them.
- The last Torino victory came in April 2015, 2-1 thanks to goals from Darmian, Quagliarella and Pirlo.
- Juventus have won 93 times, Torino achieved success on 56 occasions and there have been 58 draws.
- Torino’s home matches have produced only 23 goals this season (15 scored, 8 conceded), the lowest record in Serie A.
- Juventus have scored eight times from a corner this season, only AC Milan (9) have done better this season.
Torino Fixtures: the Milanese sides in quick succession
- Vs Frosinone (H)
- Vs Inter (A)
- Vs Bologna (H)
- Vs Verona (A)
- Vs AC Milan (H)
Juventus Fixtures: two trips to the capital
- Vs Cagliari (A)
- Vs Lazio, Coppa Italia (A)
- Vs AC Milan (H)
- Vs Roma (A)
- Vs Salernitana (H)
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