The Value Leeds Bet That Has Won in 63% Of Fixtures

Leeds set the pace in the Championship, but with one win in their last four, is their mask starting to slip? BETSiE says no. Sam Ingram agrees. You’ll find no “Leeds are falling apart again” chants down any bettingexpert office corridors.

Sheffield United, also on 80 points, make up the top two in the second tier. The Yorkshire pair stand on a perilous pedestal where Burnley claws and seeks leverage. You’re a target at the top, the hunted. 

We’ve got eight games to play. There are four remaining fixtures at Elland Road. Swansea heads to Leeds following the March International break, where a bustling home crowd will be expectant. 

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has Leeds winning the Championship with room to spare after 46 matches:

The Lay Of The Land For Leeds Right Now

The most recent 2-2 QPR result coincided with two eerily quiet weeks on the concourses at Elland Road thanks to the international break. Many Leeds fans would’ve snapped your hand off for a point when 2-0 down. At Loftus Road, a venue not exactly welcoming in terms of results over the years, perhaps it was one point gained. 

A bleak fortnight with no Championship football might have come at the right time for Leeds. The squad looked a little jaded, with Daniel Farke insisting on playing the same front four from the start for 14 games in a row. 

There’s nothing wrong with having a settled squad and starting eleven, but when you’re consistently playing Tuesday > Saturday and have the likes of Gnonto and Ramazani itching for a starting berth, it’ll raise an eyebrow or two when results start to stutter.

Regardless, with half of Leeds’ eight games arriving at Elland Road, you’d have to be brave to back against them. Don’t take my word for it – the bookmakers agree. There’s a sizable gap between the outright prices for Leeds (1.30) and Sheffield United (4.50) to win the Championship despite sitting on the same points (80) heading into the final run-in. 

The underlying data will tell you that Leeds are more efficient all over the park and are deserving of the favourites tag. No team has chalked up a loftier (71.53xG) Expected Goals total. No side can boast fewer high-quality chances (24.63xGA) afforded to their opponents after 38 games. We don’t see this kind of squad depth anywhere else in the Championship. Elland Road is a fortress. There’s good reason the bookmakers and BETSiE sides with Farke’s league-leading squad.

Interestingly, and to give Sheffield United credit where it is due, the Blades (82) have won more points than Leeds United, or anyone else for that matter, this season, but they’ve had to deal with a -2 points deduction enforced at the beginning of the season.

How To Bet On The League Leaders: The Cleanest Of Sheets

From a betting perspective, how can you side with Leeds when they’re going off as 1.22 favourites at home to Swansea? Well, at Elland Road, it’s quite simple. There’s a tried and tested angle that’s landed in 63% of home fixtures in the Championship.

Odds courtesy of bet365 with 1.80 also available at William Hill, BetVictor, Boyles. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Swansea haven’t scored in three of their last four matches. In fact, since the start of February, they’ve only registered 1.0xG or more in just two of their nine matches in said timeframe. With Derby County picking up form under John Eustace, the two Welsh Championship clubs should be rightly concerned. 

Swansea’s xG totals since the start of Feb:

• 0.44 vs Burnley
• 0.68 vs Watford
• 0.99 vs Boro
• 0.49 vs Preston
• 2.11 vs Blackburn
• 0.87 vs Stoke
• 0.18 vs Wednesday
• 1.75 vs Bristol City
• 0.18 vs Coventry 

That’s not great reading from a Swans perspective. They’re not creating much of note: five of the nine matches from February to now oversaw a Swansea blank in front of goal. However, this isn’t exactly an anti-Swansea betting angle, although the data suggests it could be. 

It’s Elland Road Up Next

Unfortunately for the Swans, Elland Road is up next. Leeds have churned out a clean sheet in 12 of 19 (63%) fixtures this campaign. That’s 63% of home games where the away team has failed to find the net. No team can get near to the lowly 8.8xGA that the Leeds defensive unit can boast. Burnley (13.9xGA), who have won plaudits for the number of clean sheets they’ve overseen so far this season, are a whole five Expected Goals adrift when it comes to home form specifically.

We can look back to the opening game of the season and class it as an anomaly now; I think that’s fair to say – Portsmouth’s three goals scored at Elland Road in a 3-3 season opener make up 33% of the total goals scored at home for Leeds. 

They’ve only conceded nine strikes at home after 19 games. That’s impressive, but it must be noted that Burnley (5) leads the way on that front.

In any case, and perhaps cruelly for Swansea, this fixture comes at a time when Leeds have won one game in four. Is this a run that’ll continue for Leeds, or will they be right at it here and put their stuttering visitors to the sword?

I’m leaning towards the latter; often too good and typically watertight at what is an intimidating Championship venue.

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