Football 
Tennis 
Horse Racing The Longshot: High Odds Acca Tips and Predictions on Jimmy’s Value Trixie
Domestic football is finally back, and with it, the return of Jimmy The Punt’s Longshot: High Odds Acca Tips – not that it went anywhere.
I have shaken things up a bit this week, as there were a few things I really liked the look of in this weekend’s slate. The official play is the 3-fold as a trixie, but I will also be tracking these bets as singles (something I don’t usually do), as the discrepancies in prices seem unusually large. One is from the Premier League, while the other two are from League Two.
- Sheffield United vs Bournemouth: Jack Robinson & Philip Billing Cards
- Salford vs MK Dons: Matt Smith to score a header
- Tranmere vs Gillingham: Shadrach Ogie Anytime Goalscorer
The Longshot Acca odds: 536.25
The Longshot: High Odds Acca Tips and Predictions Odds via bet365 as at 10:00, 22nd November 2023. Odds may now differ.
Sheffield United vs Bournemouth: Battle of Bramall Lane 2
England, Premier League, Saturday, November 25th, 15:00 (UK)
Despite not kicking a ball in two weeks, the complexion of Sheffield United’s season changed dramatically over the international break, as Everton’s point deduction hoisted the Blades away from the foot of the table.
Paul Heckingbottom picked up his first win of the season at the 13th attempt, beating Wolves in dramatic fashion from the penalty spot. Sheff Utd. also needed the help of the referee to pick up a point on the south coast in their following game with Brighton swung in their favour, following the dismissal of Mahmoud Dahoud.
Those four points put the Blades one off Luton, and four behind Saturday’s opposition Bournemouth.
The Cherries also went into the international break on a high. Victories over Burnley and Newcastle came either side of the 6-1 thumping at the Etihad, and those six points moved Andoni Iraola’s side four points clear of the dotted line.
After a sluggish start, another win at Bramall Lane this weekend would put real daylight between Bournemouth and the drop. Defeat for the hosts would leave them firmly embroiled in a four-team relegation battle.
So, it is fair to say this one could boil over.
The dynamic of the clash lends itself to cards, and the referee is not afraid to flash them either. Andy Madley has the whistle for this one, he has dished out 44 cards in eight top flight appearances this season, an average of 5.51 per game.
The Blades’ poor disciplinary record results in stingy prices. However, at 3.85, Jack Robinson to be shown a card is certainly backable. No Sheff Utd player has been carded more times this season (3).
At 15.00 with Unibet, combining him with Philip Billing appeals, as the duo are only half that price with bet365.
The midfielder has notched up 53 cards in 236 domestic appearances, giving him a cards per 90 average of 0.29. The 5.5 is certainly too big with Unibet.
Salford vs MK Dons: Big Smudge
England, League Two, Saturday, November 25th, 15:00 (UK)
Salford may be floundering around the midriff of League Two, but their veteran striker is in the form of his life.
Matt Smith has found the net 14 times in the fourth tier this campaign, putting him a goal ahead of one of the ante-post favourites for the golden boot, Macaulay Langstaff.
The majority of these goals (8) have come via Smudge’s head, as have 29 of the 51 shots he has had.
As his stats show, Smith has one of the most dangerous heads in football.
Given his aerial prowess, it should come as no surprise to see his side rank third for accurate crosses per match (6.1). No L2 side can trump the Ammies for cross success, though (29.2%).
‘Play to your strengths’ is obviously a mantra of Neil Wood, and, at 9/5, backing Smith to score another header is the best here.
As I write, not all the firms have priced this market, so keep an eye out for Sky Bet’s prices because they may have this bet at a larger price.
Tranmere vs Gillingham: Ogie Ogie Ogie
England, League Two, Saturday, November 25th, 15:00 (UK)
As the league table suggests, Tranmere have been one of the worst sides in the division this season.
Rovers currently sit two points off the foot, having lost two thirds of their games this campaign.
One of the many areas they struggle in is defending set pieces. No side in the division has conceded more goals via them this campaign (20).
What is more, in 18 games, five central defenders have exploited this weakness, and scored via a dead ball situation this campaign. That means an opposition defender has scored against Tranmere in 27.7% of their league games this season. You’ll never guess what I am backing here.
Gillingham’s Shadrach Ogie is yet to score this season, but he is due one. The central defender has averaged 0.4 shots per game, and generated an xG per 90 of 0.4.
The Irishman also plays for one of the most threatening set piece sides in League Two.
Gillingham have racked up the fourth most xG from dead balls (7.55), but are underperforming this metric massively.
Ogie is 26.00 with Sky Bet to find the net anytime. He is as short as 13.00 with other firms, which is also the price of his centre back partner Conor Masterson in this market.
- Selection: Shadrach Ogie Anytime Goalscorer
- Best Odds: 26.00
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 10/10
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
