The Line is OFF in PSG vs AC Milan: The Gloves are off in the ‘Group of Death’

Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella believes some bookmakers are underestimating the Rossoneri and has written our first ‘The Line is OFF’ article to preview tips in PSG vs AC Milan in the Champions League.

Daniele’s Asian Handicap selection provides an interesting angle for those who believe the Parisians might still be far off their best, and AC Milan, who are more comfortable in their style of play, could take advantage.

Of course, that’s provided that Christian Pulic and company can take their chances in front of goal, unlike they did in their first two Champions League games.

In this article:

• The Line if OFF in PSG vs AC Milan – Our Expert’s Value Bet Tips
• PSG vs AC Milan Team News
• PSG vs AC Milan OPTA Stats and Match Facts
• Safer Gambling

The Line is OFF – Our Expert’s Value Bet Tips: AC Milan +0.75 Asian Handicap

UEFA Champions League, Group F, Wednesday October 25th, 20:00 (UK)

The majority of bookmakers place Paris Saint-Germain amongst the favourites to lift the Champions League trophy. But after watching them crumble at the hands of Newcastle United on Matchday Two, it would be difficult to argue they’re even close to Europe’s elite teams.

Luis Enrique’s bold team selection at St James’ Park, playing Kolo Muani, Dembelé, Goncalo Ramos and Mbappé, backfired as PSG often got overrun and struggled to control the possession without a three of Vitinha, Manuel Ugarte and Warren Zaïre-Emery who looked so inspired in their win against Borussia Dortmund.

The Parisians are transitioning, signing eleven new players over the summer and selling 20 (including Messi, Neymar, Sergio Ramos and Verratti). Compared to last year, they’re a younger and fitter side, probably suited to absorb Luis Enrique’s ideas but short on leaders on the pitch, apart from Mbappé and Marquinhos.

Their start of the season has been inconsistent, as they kept five clean sheets but also failed to score on two occasions in Ligue 1, and at times, they gave the impression they struggle to find a plan B during games. So far, they’ve lost both games (against Nice and Newcastle) when they conceded the first goal.

PSG’s full-backs, Hakimi and Lucas Hernandez would need protection against the pace of Leao and Pulisic, and we’d probably see a return to the midfield three.

Who Edges it in This Group Of Death Encounter?

The hosts have an excellent domestic record in the Champions League, having lost only seven of their last 70 European home games (W45 D18). However, five of those defeats have come in their last 20 matches at the Parc des Princes, and last season, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in all their four domestic European games.

AC Milan were defeated 1-0 by Juventus on Sunday, in a game with very few scoring chances that they had to play with ten men for over 50 minutes due to Thiaw sending off.

The Rossoneri have now lost against both Inter Milan and Juventus but are a stronger side compared to last season when, against the odds, they reached the semi-finals.

In both games against Newcastle at San Siro and in Dortmund, they should have done better in front of goal (they’ve got the worst xG vs actual goals difference in the Champions League so far: -1.74).

In the ‘group of death’, where no team might remain unbeaten, you don’t go far with 0-0 draws.

AC Milan have won only seven of their last 27 Champions League games, but in the past two seasons, they only suffered one heavy defeat away from home (3-0 Chelsea in October 2022), and last season, they only conceded once in four matches against Tottenham and Napoli.

Stefano Pioli’s men have gained good experience at international level, and I’d not expect them to get beaten heavily in Paris.

With this selection, if they get defeated by one goal margin, you’d only lose half of your stake.

• Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: AC Milan Asian Handicap +0.75 (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.87
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

PSG vs AC Milan Team News: Doubts Over Ruben Loftus-Cheek’s Involvement

Luis Enrique played an unprecedented attacking team at the weekend in PSG 3-0 home win against Strasbourg with Gonzalo Ramos, Bradley Barcola, Kang-in Lee, Carlos Soler, and Kylian Mbappé.

Layvin Kurzawa made his first appearance for the club in over two years.

“It was a challenging match, coming after the international break,” said the Spanish manager.”

“A match without our supporters and ultras, which was a bit strange. But I believe the players and the team performed very well. They took the match very seriously and we achieved this excellent result.”

For AC Milan, both Mike Maignan and Theo Hernandez, who did not play on Sunday because of suspension, will be back in the starting XI. Rade Krunic is also fit to start, as he came off the bench against Juventus. Ruben Lofuts-Cheek is a doubt whereas Chukwueze, Sportiello, Caldara and Bennacer are all sidelined.

PSG vs AC Milan OPTA Match Stats and Facts: Parisians Seeking Fourth Consecutive Win Against Italian Sides

• Milan have lost just three of their 16 UEFA Champions League games against French sides (W8 D5) – the 1993 final against Marseille, a 2002-03 group stage game at Lens, and at home to Lille in the 2006-07 group stages. This is their first such match since winning both games against Auxerre in 2010-11.
• Only Manchester City (71.8%) have a higher average possession so far in this season’s UEFA Champions League than Paris Saint-Germain (70.5%). Their 73.1% possession against Newcastle as their third highest total on record (since 2003-04) in a single match in the competition.
• Following a 3-0 aggregate defeat to Inter in last season’s semi-final, and two goalless draws so far this season, Milan have failed to score in their last four UEFA Champions League matches. It’s their longest run without a goal in all European club competition history.
• Paris have won their last three meetings with Italian sides in all competitions, beating Juventus home and away in the UEFA Champions League group stages last season. They’d only won two of their first 20 against such sides before this (D9 L9).
• Since the start of 2017-18, PSG’s Kylian Mbappé has been involved in more UEFA Champions League group stage goals than any other player (46 – 26 goals, 20 assists), with the Frenchman averaging a goal or assist every 65 minutes in this round of the competition since then.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.