The Cards Column Tips: Three games to count the cards

It might have been a limited fixture list last weekend but it didn’t stop Matt Kirby from finding a 2.1 winner as Walsall picked up the most booking points at MK Dons. 

With a full programme across the Premier League and Football League, we’ve tasked the cards expert with finding three of his favourite bets for the weekend. 

• Swansea vs Norwich: Over 4 Asian Cards
• Crystal Palace vs Leicester: Will Hughes To Be Booked
• Walsall vs Bradford: Both teams 20+ booking points

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Gillett will need to be sharp

All eyes will be on Sunday’s north London derby at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Aussie Jarred Gillett takes charge in what will be his second Arsenal game of the season. Before that, Darren Bond takes charge of Man City’s home clash with Brentford, while Sam Barrott – who’s dished out plenty of cards so far – has Ipswich’s trip to Brighton. 

Select Group 1 refs Peter Bankes and John Brooks return from injury. Both find themselves in the Championship with Bankes in charge of Hull v Sheff Utd on Friday and Brooks overseeing Plymouth’s home game with leaders Sunderland.

There’s a first EFL outing of the season for James Linington in League One after his return in the National League last weekend. While I’m always happy to see prolific card issuers Seb Stockbridge (6.3) and Charles Breakspear (8.3) with middles.

Once again, I’ll point out that you can find the charts for full ref appts and data on my Twitter/X profile – @m_kirby95. Any RTs and follows will be appreciated. 

Swansea vs Norwich: Fussy refereeing in the spotlight

England, Championship, Saturday, September 14th, 15:00 (UK)

We’ll start this week in the Championship, where I feel I have to take cards in a game refereed by John Busby.It’s not often I lead with the match official but his two Championship matches have produced 11 yellows and a red. He started with five yellows in Watford’s trip to Millwall before his outing in Portsmouth v Luton saw him dismiss Hatters keeper Thomas Kaminski for a second bookable offence, while he also showed five more yellows in that one. 

Since the furore over the Declan Rice incident, the SG1 and SG2 referees have had a few coaching sessions and meetings where it’s been pointed out that incidents like Joao Pedro smashing the ball away should result in a caution. So, that gives me the feeling we’ll see some fussy officiating over this weekend.

And when it comes to fussy, I don’t think many referees in the Championship can match Mr Busby. I remember seeing him in charge of Stoke’s opener against Rotherham last season where he took those instructions to the letter, which makes me feel he’ll do the same here if the opportunity arises.

Given his fussiness and those card tallies, I cannot ignore that bet365 have gone 1.8 for their over 4.0 cards Asian line. When I see four cards with Busby, I expect at least a refund but fully expect the full whack. 

It looks like a low line with Busby in control. Plus, we’re helped by Norwich to throw weight at this argument as well. The Canaries have collected 13 cautions – only Portsmouth (15) have more.

While in terms of fouls, the Swans have some players who draw plenty. Luke Williams’ men draw 13.3 fouls per game from their opponents, the joint-fourth most. And both times combine for around 24 fouls, which lines up with Busby’s foul average across his two games. 

For Swansea, their games have had 5, 4, 4 & 4 cards meaning three pushes and one payout. While it’s Norwich’s numbers that catch the eye, with their matches having 4, 5, 7 & 7 cards. From those tallies, the Canaries as a team have seen 3, 2, 5 & 3, so if they hit those numbers we should be in a good place.

And despite both sides undergoing managerial changes in the last 12 months, it has to be said that their meetings last season saw a few cards too. Here at the Liberty last October, there were six yellows. While the reverse at Carrow Road produced five.

For this weekend, I feel we’ll see referees clamping down on certain behaviour. So, with a card-happy, fussy official in Busby and a Norwich side who have seen plenty of cards, take a lowish-looking line. 

• Selection: Over 4 Asian Cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Will Hughes To Be Booked: Hughes to be the hatchet man

England, Premier League, Saturday, September 14th, 15:00 (UK)

Two sides without a win clash at Selhurst Park when Crystal Palace host Leicester. The Eagles are yet to find the form that saw them soar under Oliver Glasner after his appointment in February, but this could be their chance against one of the new boys.

The Foxes may still be searching for three points since their return to the top flight, but one man has been a dream for prop market backers.

Abdul Fatawu has won plenty of tackles, while also being a foul magnet. In his three Premier League starts, he’s been fouled 3, 3 & 4 times making him one of the most targeted players in the division. 

With those numbers, I’ve tried to work out who’ll be tasked with marshalling the Ghanaian. 

Glasner has changed his midfield game-by-game this season, so I was left with Will Hughes and Daichi Kamada. Both men are priced attractively with bet365, but my preference is for the former at 5.00.

He started their defeat at Brentford where he made five tackles and committed two fouls. Now it’s that game against Chelsea before the international break that caused a bit of a stir. Hughes was booked early, only to commit two more fouls. One of those looked like a cynical pull on Cole Palmer, where he was fortuitous to escape a second yellow.

Hughes does tend to snap into challenges and find himself on the wrong side of officials. He’s had his name taken in 16 of his last 73 Premier League apps, and up against a player like Fatawu, then the 5.00 just can’t be ignored.

If the team news drops at 2pm and Kamada gets the nod instead of Hughes, I’d still take the Japanese international. He’s started twice since joining the Eagles, and in both of those games, he’s racked up four fouls – getting booked at Brentford. Somehow, bet365 go 7.5 on him to be booked here! 

Tony Harrington is in charge. He might just have finished off his paperwork after showing 11 yellows and a red in Burnley v Blackburn before the international break. If he needs to, he’ll dish them out! 

• Selection: Will Hughes to be booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 5.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Walsall vs Bradford: A dust-up between play-off rivals

England, League 2, Saturday, September 14th, 15:00 (UK)

Let’s drop into League Two for this week’s final pick, where Bradford travel to Walsall. 

Both sides have got off to decent starts and sit fifth and sixth respectively heading into this one. And both will have their eye on the top spot as leaders Doncaster lost to Harrogate on Thursday.

With it featuring in The Cards Column, you won’t be surprised to hear, we could see a high count. 

Bradford won their opener away at MK Dons and since then, their games have ended with these booking points splits:

• Bradford 20-40 Salford
• Bradford 20-35 Bromley
• Grimsby 40-40 Bradford
• Bradford 30-40 Carlisle

Those are some huge numbers at any level, so having seen those I had to try and find an angle into this one. 

I then looked at Walsall and saw they had picked up at least 20+ booking points in four of their five league matches, including both on home turf (20 v Morecambe & 40 v Cheltenham).

The bare yellow card numbers see these two rank high up among their League Two counterparts. While there was further encouragement in the tackle and foul data.

The Saddlers average 19.8 tackles per 90 – that’s a huge amount – and to nobody’s surprise, the most in the division. Bradford, in contrast, are 10th with 16. So that hints at a competitive game, especially on a compact pitch by the M6.

If you’re not already licking your lips, let’s look at fouls. The Bantams top the charts along with AFC Wimbledon at 15.8 fouls per game, while Walsall are in sixth at 13.2.

The bare numbers point to this being a tackles and fouls fest, so Development Group ref Lewis Smith will have to be on his mettle. 

Since making his EFL debut, Smith has been up and down the country, as well as around the leagues. Before the international break, he was at Portman Road for the Premier League game between Ipswich and Fulham – that saw five yellows with a 3-2 split to the Cottagers.

Overall, he’s shown 4+ cards in two of his four league outings. But on both of those occasions, they’ve had at least a 20/20 split.

That leads me to the Sky Bet BuildaBet feature, where combining Walsall 20+ booking points with Bradford 20+ booking points comes out at 2.10. That’s bigger than their usual market, which is 2.00. Finally, something on the punter’s side!

The final point on this one is last season’s games saw 50 booking points (10-40 split) and 85 booking points (20-65 split). It was Bradford who finished the game here with 10 men last term, and that was refereed by Adam Herczeg, who ended as one of the lower card issuers in 2023/24. So, this could go off once more!

• Selection: Both teams 20+ booking points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 7/10

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