The Cards Column Tips: Top two tiers and up for the cup

The focus this weekend is mostly on the Premier League and Championship, with the world’s oldest cup competition – the FA Cup – taking place for sides in Leagues One and Two.

We’ve tasked Matt Kirby to look through the top-two tiers of English football to find his favourite card and bookings bets.

• Sheffield Wednesday vs Watford: Over 0 cards in the first half and over 2 cards in the second half
• Middlesbrough vs Coventry: Liam Kitching To Be Booked
• Oxford vs Swansea: Under 3 Oxford cards & Under 3 Swansea cards

Referee Appointments in the Premier League and Championship: Jones with the big game as Bramall returns

John Brooks kicks the Premier League action off as Arsenal travel north to Newcastle. Tim Robinson – who has shown 4+ cards in all six of his league games – heads to Portman Road as Ipswich host Leicester.

The Super Sunday games see Craig Pawson in charge of what should be an open game between Spurs and Aston Villa, while Rob Jones has his third Man Utd match of the campaign. Ruben Amorim won’t be in the dugout just yet as the Red Devils entertain Chelsea. Those United games involving Jones have seen five and six cards respectively. 

In the Championship, SG1 ref Thomas Bramall has his first EFL game of the season. He had a run out in the National League last weekend showing just two cautions. There are games for card-happy pair Sam Allison and Ben Toner, while Gavin Ward gets Sunday’s clash between Millwall and Burnley.

For more from Matt, including the charts with all the data, check out his Twitter: @m_kirby95. 

Sheffield Wednesday vs Watford: Allison to bring home the dough

England, Championship, Saturday, November 2nd, 15:00 (UK)

It’s a tricky slate with some bookies slow to release markets, while bet365 seem to have mostly caught on by the uptick in cards. That means higher lines and a few prices that are shorter than I’m willing to take.

So, I’m going to be a bit inventive in the Championship game between Sheff Wed and Watford to build a 1.91 angle combining first-half and second-half markets.

This game catches the eye with Sam Allison taking charge. He’s shown 4+ cards in all four of this league matches, with him averaging 5.7 cards per 90. 

bet365 have the Asian card line set at 4.5 and that would have paid out in five of Allison’s seven – a 71% strike-rate. With that in mind, taking the overs at 1.85 could be an angle into this one.

However, I’m going to go over 0 cards in the first half with over 2 cards in the second half. That comes out at 1.91 using the bet365 Bet Builder.

Referee Allison averages 2.3 cards in the first 45 before showing 3.4 in the second half. Now, I’ve dug through my data spreadsheets to find the splits for the official:

• Middlesbrough v Swansea – 3 FH & 2 SH
• West Brom v Leeds – 3 FH & 1 SH
• Man City v Ipswich – 1 FH & 4 SH (replaced a stricken Michael Salisbury in the warm-up)
• Portsmouth v Sunderland – 1 FH & 3 SH
• Southampton v Ipswich – 1 FH & 7 SH
• Middlesbrough v Bristol City – 5 FH & 3 SH
• Millwall v Plymouth – 2 FH & 4 SH

This angle may have fallen short due to his second-half tallies in his first two league games, but since then, it’s struck in his last five. And given the nature of these sides, he could find himself fairly busy at Hillsborough.

They rank in the middle echelons for fouls – both committing 12 per game, so we can hope to expect around 24 free kicks from fouls. 

The last meeting between the sides came at Hillsborough in January, producing seven cautions from Rebecca Welch. That saw four yellows in the first half and three more after the break – enough to put a tick in the betslip.

What helps, is I’d say don’t expect many goals. There have only been two in their last four meetings. And although two of those came in the 2020/21 season, they counted six and four cards.

To cap off the reasoning, I’ll finish with some remarkable recency bias around last weekend’s games for the Owls and the Hornets.

Sheff Wed went to Portsmouth. That game saw one card in the first half and three in the second. While Watford’s home game with Blackburn produced a single first-half card with eight (8!) after half-time. 

It’s a slightly different way to try to get into these games, but my feeling is there’s an increase in first-half cards. So, they might be a nice angle to try to catch before they shorten like match cards!

• Selection: Over 0 cards in the first half and over 2 cards in the second half (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Liam Kitching To Be Booked: And the Kitching sink… anything to stop Doak 

England, Championship, Saturday, November 2nd, 15:00 (UK)

Norwich’s Borja Sainz might be clear in the race for the Championship Player of the Year accolade, but Middlesbrough have a livewire of their own.

Liverpool loanee Ben Doak has been causing Championship defences plenty of headaches since his arrival at Riverside. His direct play, nimble dribbling and agility makes him the ideal candidate to draw fouls and look for a direct match-up for the player pick.

That’s where Coventry’s Liam Kitching comes into the mix. He picked up his first caution of the campaign in the 13th minute of the Sky Blues’ dramatic comeback win against Luton last Saturday before being withdrawn at half-time. 

Kitching has committed a foul on four of his five league starts, plus he was booked in a one-minute cameo in the League Cup against Spurs.

You might look at this and think this player has one card in the league and plays for a side who average just 1.5 cards per away game. But it’s the fact that Boro draw 4.2 cautions from visiting sides to Teesside. Oh, and Kitching saw three reds last season!

Just looking through opposition left-sided players against Boro sees plenty of fouls and cautions. Here’s the list of opponents booked in this area of the pitch:

• Swansea’s Josh Tymon
• Leeds’ Junior Firpo
• Derby’s Callum Elder
• Preston’s Andrew Hughes
• Watford’s LCB Ryan Porteous
• Bristol City’s Rory McCrorie.

The latter on that list committed four fouls highlighting the importance of Doak in this Boro set-up with either Tommy Conway or Emmanuel Latte Lath leading the line. 

If we get Kitching starting at LWB like last weekend then we could be in business here. He’ll have his hands full up against Doak, who’s averaging 1.6 dribbles per game and 1.8 fouls drawn per 90. 

bet365 have Kitching as the shortest price for a card at 2.6. However, Ladbrokes and Coral now price up cards and have opened at 4.8, which looks very juicy. Plus, if you’ve got a boost available it might take it to 5.0. 

• Selection: Liam Kitching to be booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 4.8
• Bookmaker: Ladbrokes & Coral
• Stake: 5/10

Oxford vs Swansea: Go low at the Kassam 

England, Championship, Saturday, November 2nd, 15:00 (UK)

There are some outrageously high lines set in some of the Premier League games – high enough to try and emulate Spurs’ defensive line!

So, I’ll finish this week with a clean sweep of Championship angles. And the lunchtime game between Oxford and Swansea looks the perfect storm to take the dreaded unders.

The reasoning is pretty simple. These are two sides who will want to get the ball down and play. I feel that partly reflects in some of the data available with Des Buckingham’s side committing the fewest fouls per game in the Championship (9). 

Swansea rank 20th in that metric at 9.8 per game as well. Hopefully, that means this is a free-flowing game without the need for referee Michael Salisbury to have to get too involved.

Giving away few fouls means one thing – collect next to no cards. Oxford have seen 20 yellows in the second tier – only Middlesbrough’s 19 is fewer. While once again, the Swans aren’t too far ahead on 22.

Breaking them down to the averages, the U’s see 1.7 yellows per game compared to the Welsh side’s 1.8. Compelling enough evidence to give me belief that unders looks the play.

What also helps is Michael Salisbury’s figures. After picking up an injury in Man City v Ipswich, Salisbury’s matches have been limited as he returns to fitness. 

Two of his three outings have been in the Championship as well. Those games have seen just six cards, with splits of Burnley 2-1 Cardiff and Sheff Wed 1-2 Burnley.

Admittedly, Salisbury blotched his copybook in midweek when going a little crazy in League Two. His outing in the middle of Fleetwood v Salford saw a 3-6 card split. However, Salford are notorious for their ill-discipline, which isn’t what we have with these two Championship clubs.

Overall, both sides have seen under 3 cards in nine of their 12 respective home/away league games. For Oxford, they’ve gone under in five of six at the Kassam too. Here’s to a free-flowing game!

• Selection: Under 3 Oxford cards & under 3 Swansea cards
• Best Odds: 2.30
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

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