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Horse Racing The Cards Column Tips: A repeat of last weekend’s cards
Matchweek 4 in the Premier League broke the yellow cards record with 65 shown across the 10 games, with Bournemouth v Chelsea breaking the single-game record. Overall, the four tiers saw 240 cards at an average of 5.2 per game. More of the same?
We’ve got Matt Kirby to crunch the numbers with his referee data and appointment sheets, which you can find on his X/Twitter (@m_kirby95). He’s got his eye on some familiar faces to dish out the cards in the Championship.
In this article:
- Norwich vs Watford: Over 4.5 cards
- Crystal Palace vs Man Utd: Kobbie Mainoo To Be Booked
- Preston vs Blackburn: Over 4.5 Asian Cards
Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Oliver handed title clash
It might be early to be talking about the title, but Man City v Arsenal already has that feel. So, it’s no surprise to see Michael Oliver at the controls. Sam Barrott has a London derby between West Ham and Chelsea. In his first full season in the top flight, he’s shown 4+ cards in each game.
There’s a return to action for Andy Madley. He’s in the Championship, where Sheffield Utd host Derby. Fellow SG1 ref Simon Hooper will try to keep a lid on the proceedings between Sunderland and Boro.
In League One, Blackpool picked up seven cards last week. They’re at Charlton and have Charles Breakspear (7.1 cards per game) keeping an eye on things.
Darren Drysdale managed to show zero cards in AFC Wimbledon’s grudge game with MK Dons last weekend. He oversees Tranmere’s trip to Colchester. While Matt Corlett has Monday’s derby between Fleetwood and Morecambe.
Norwich vs Watford: And it was all yellow
England, Championship, Saturday, September 21st, 12:30 (UK)
Let’s start with one of the Championship lunchtime games on Saturday, which is live on Sky Sports+. Watford are the visitors to Carrow Road, where Norwich are looking to kickstart their campaign.
The new manager bounce hasn’t quite landed in East Anglia, with the Canaries picking up five points from their opening five games. And during the week, they lost coach Narcis Pelach to Stoke.
What I can’t ignore is both sides’ disciplinary records, as well as referee Anthony Backhouse making this a match made in heaven.
Norwich sit third in the yellow card table (16), with Watford not far behind on 12. And when you combine their foul averages, it comes out at around 24, which is on par with Backhouse’s average this season.
The Canaries’ games have had card counts of 4, 5, 7, 7 & 5, making this bet a winner in four of the five. Narrowing it down to their team counts, they’ve seen 3, 2, 5, 3 & 3, showing they’re well equipped to make some tough challenges.
And the Hornets don’t lack sting. Their games have seen 5, 4, 5, 8, & 4. The last of those numbers is last weekend’s draw with Coventry, which saw three of the four cards in the first half! Again, Watford’s totals inspire confidence having collected 3, 2, 2, 3 & 2 – the two threes both coming in away games.
Those numbers alone hint that 2+ cards to both teams at 1.80 doesn’t look like a bad bet, while three each comes out at 4.2 for those who like a bit more of an extravagant angle.
What’s more, the last three head-to-heads have all produced five cards, showing these two do usually get stuck in.
Then, we add Anthony Backhouse to the mix. His three league outings have produced 7, 4 & 5 cards. He also took charge of the all-Champoinship EFL Cup tie between Leeds and Middlesbrough, where he showed six yellows.
That cup game saw three each, while his league splits have been 2-5, 2-2 & 4-1.
I wouldn’t put you off the splits, but I feel the safe play is going with over 4.5 match cards at 1.80. It just looks strong based on the teams and the referee.
- Selection: Over 4.5 cards (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Kobbie Mainoo To Be Booked: The Main(oo) man
England, Premier League, Saturday, September 21st, 17:30 (UK)
I had something of a list to try and pick through for this week’s player pick, which I’ll show at the end. But for me, I just cannot ignore the price Sky Bet are offering on Kobbie Mainoo to be booked.
Man Utd will be buoyed by their comfortable win at Southampton after Andre Onana’s penalty save. And the Red Devils head to Crystal Palace, who haven’t been able to match the form in which they ended last season under Oliver Glasner.
Now, Mainoo looks like a good price at 2.20 with bet365 to commit 2+ fouls given he’s made 3, 2, 2 & 2 in his four league games. Some of those have been early in games too. Two in the first half against Liverpool and a couple in the first few minutes against Fulham.
With those foul counts, there’s a reason he’s seen a yellow in three of his four Premier League outings. That puts in him the select group of five players to have seen yellow in a trio of games in the top flight in the early knockings of this season.
Mainoo’s foul counts and card stats this season look decent enough. So, let’s factor in opponents, Palace.
They’ve drawn 11.3 fouls per game so far, but that jumps to 15 in games played at Selhurst Park.
Central midfielders tend to be in the thick of the action against the Eagles too. A dive through some opposition numbers shows that West Ham committed 17 fouls at Selhurst Park. Tomas Soucek made five of those and was booked, while Edson Alvarez came off the bench to commit two in just shy of 30 minutes.
Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo made a couple of fouls against Palace. Last weekend, Leicester’s Oliver Skipp, Jordan Ayew and Stephy Mavididi all committed two fouls, plus Wilfred Ndidi made four. It was Ayew and Ndidi who saw yellow in that one.
And if you factor in their midweek cup game, QPR’s Jonathan Varane gave away three free kicks and was booked in the 27th minute.
That’s plenty of fouls drawn from opposition midfielders, which aids the case. Plus, looking within the Palace ranks, you might want to factor in Adam Wharton to be fouled. As one of Mainoo’s likely direct opponents, Wharton has drawn 3, 4, 1 & 2 fouls in the league.
David Coote is in charge, and last season, he just loved his cards. For me, he gives plenty of soft free kicks, which leads to growing frustrations between the players.
With all of that, I’m not sure how Mainoo is one of the biggest-priced players for a card in this one with Sky Bet. That 7.00 just looks too good to turn down!
Other players to consider:
- Southampton v Ipswich – Leif Davis – not a great card record but should have his hands full against Dibling and Sugawara.
- Aston Villa v Wolves – Lamare Bogarde – has seemed a foul magnet in his short Villa career. Ref Tim Robinson was giving a card per foul in Tuesday’s cup tie between Stoke and Fleetwood, so I can see cards in this Midlands clash.
- West Brom v Plymouth – Ibrahim Cissoko – a couple of cards since his Pilgrims’ arrival. I can see Rooney’s men being on the back foot and Cissoko trying to keep tabs on the excellent Tom Fellows.
- Selection: Kobbie Mainoo to be booked (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 7.00
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 3/10
Preston vs Blackburn: A fiery Lancashire derby
England, Championship, Sunday, September 22nd, 12:00 (UK)
Blackburn have their second Lancashire derby of the season when they visit Deepdale on Sunday to take on Preston. I’m hoping this is as lively as Rovers’ trip to Burnley a few weeks ago.
That game saw 11 yellows and a red, so if that’s anything to go by, we could be in for some fireworks. So, that takes me to the Asian card market, where we can take over 4.5 cards at 1.95.
It looks like a nice line given one noticeable thing is the number of cards Preston have picked up since Paul Heckingbottom took charge. The Lilywhites’ team totals have been 6, 6 & 5 under his coaching. And they sit top of the foul charts with 20 per game.
If you take that trend to continue, we could see the hosts land this line themselves!
There’s more great news for this bet. The consistent card lover Matt Donohue is adjudicating things. His three Championship games have produced 15 yellows, each one seeing five. Is that a quota I sniff?
For me, Donohue is an official who uses his cards rather than man-management to control proceedings. And looking back through his numbers, his last Rovers game saw seven yellows and a red as Dominic Hyam was dismissed at Hull last December.
Looking back at last season’s record for Donohue also highlighted something else. His two Preston games saw 12 yellows, with eight of those going to Lilywhites’ players (four in each) – more of the same here and we’ll be well-placed to strike.
I must admit my eyes lit up when I saw Donohue given this game, especially on the back of some of Preston’s recent numbers.
So, take the Asian Line on bet365 for this bet, because that’s a bigger price than the usual market. We’re getting 1.95 on the Asian Line compared to 1.83 on the bog-standard market!
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