The Cards Column Tips: Promotion battles & time for Lewis to Cook

Matt Kirby nailed both of his match picks in last week’s column, so we’ve asked him back to preview this weekend’s best cards and booking points bets.

Once again, Matt is going around the leagues searching for favourable angles. He’s picked out a couple of key games, especially in the race for promotion and the play-offs in the Premier League, the Championship and League Two.

• Bradford vs Crewe: 20+ booking points each team
• West Ham vs Bournemouth: Lewis Cook To Be Booked
• West Brom vs Sunderland: 20+ booking points each team

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Brooks on the modern day ‘friendly derby’

John Brooks is the headline appointment this weekend tasked with Sunday’s Manchester derby. The last ten meetings in all competitions between City and Utd have produced just 28 cards. Could it be one for unders?

Darren England kicks off the weekend’s Premier League action when Everton host Arsenal, while Simon Hooper has the Midlands derby between Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest.

In the second tier, Gavin Ward has Norwich’s trip to Plymouth, while Thomas Bramall oversees Leeds’ visit to relegation-threatened Luton. 

Sam Purkiss has shown 40+ booking points in 84% of his games and he’s at St Andrew’s for Birmingham vs Barnsley. Scott Tallis isn’t far behind at 75% ahead of his game in charge of Leyton Orient vs Wigan. But Thomas Parsons dwarfs them both, sitting at 88%, so look out for his game when Harrogate head south to Wimbledon.

If you’d like to see the charts, and read more football ramblings, give Matt a follow on X – @m_kirby95. 

Bradford vs Crewe: Battling Bantams & cagey Crewe

England, League Two, Saturday, April  5th, 15:00 (UK)

Let’s start in League Two where Bradford are within two points of leaders Walsall. The Bantams have to bounce back from their midweek defeat to third-place Port Vale when they welcome play-off-chasing Crewe to Valley Parade.

We’re at that point in the season where we have to look out for the games with meaning unless you want a fancy price for no cards involving two teams on the beach. This isn’t one of them.

And you have to fancy cards in this one with both having so much at stake: Bradford’s automatic promotion hopes and Crewe’s play-off chances. So, straight off the bat, I’m drawn into the averages.

The Bantams have picked up 52 yellows in their home games – an average of 2.6, with only Accrington Stanley (who are they?) collecting more (54 at 2.7 per game). The Railwaymen have decent numbers on the road as well, averaging 2.4 yellows per away outing.

Given they both average over two cards per game, I’m having to look towards the 20+ booking points to each team at 1.91 with Sky Bet. And for reasons to follow, it looks a belter!

Belting Price

Graham Alexander’s side have picked up 20+ booking points (bp) in 16 of 20 home league games, with 13 of those seeing 20+ each team, which are phenomenal numbers. The visitors have similar strong data with Lee Bell’s men hitting this 20+ line in 15 of their 20 away league matches (75%). 

When I was eyeing up this game, I was delighted to see some feisty recent meetings between the sides. Let’s start in January 2024 when that clash hit 80 booking points (50-30 in Crewe’s favour). Earlier this season, their game at Gresty Road saw Alex Pattison sent off in a game that saw Bradford win the split 75-50. Yes, that’s right, 125 booking points!

Despite all that, I’m not too fond of the referee appointment. I said that last week in Crewe’s game and it didn’t turn out too bad. This time around, it’s Adam Herczeg who is averaging around four cards per game. But he’s only hit the 20+ to each team mark in nine of his 27 games! 

That said, the official has already visited Valley Parade this season. He brandished six yellow (a 30 each split) when Bradford beat Chesterfield in December. 

I didn’t mind the 50+ booking points line at 2.0. But that’s hit in just six of the ref’s 27 games. So, I’ll go down the route of 20+ each with what’s at stake. 

• Selection: 20+ booking points each team (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 8/10

Lewis Cook To Be Booked: Cherry-ripe to target Bowen

England, Premier League, Saturday, April 5th, 15:00 (UK)

I’m returning to one of my favourite sides for cards to find my player pick. Bournemouth head to the capital to visit West Ham, where Lewis Cook could find himself in hot water.

Cook started alongside Ryan Christie in Wednesday’s defeat at home to Ipswich, which saw the Cherries’ European hopes stutter. But the Scot went off injured, so I’ll take Cook here with fewer fitness doubts around his availability. 

You might ask why I’m targeting Cook. When I was looking through the data for this weekend, I noticed that Jarrod Bowen has been left battered and bruised in recent weeks. 

The Hammers man has been fouled 22 times in his last 10 appearances. Not only has he been targeted. Lucas Paqueta has 34 and Tomas Soucek 12 in the same timeframe. So, that piques my interest in finding a visiting player to persistently offer, which leads me to Cook. 

Cooking up a yellow

He’s Bournemouth’s second-most fouler (44) behind Antoine Semenyo, which has resulted in him seeing six cautions in the Premier League. 

The tenacious midfielder will find himself in those battles with Paqueta and Soucek, while he might have to do some defensive doubling up on Bowen too. When the fouls drawn markets open, that trio are worth a look, especially with the Cherries topping the foul charts at 13.8 per game.

Tim Robinson isn’t afraid to dish out the cards. He’s averaging 4.7 and has shown 5+ in just over half of his league middles (53%). One of those matches that saw him show five was West Ham’s 1-1 draw at Fulham in September, where two Cottagers midfielders saw yellow.

It’s worth saying Cook was booked in this fixture last season, so with those direct battles in the middle of the park going a long way to deciding this one, the 5.0 looks decent to me. Especially now that bet365 have Sub On Play On, so we can take the best price.

• Selection: Lewis Cook to be booked
• Best Odds: 5.0
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

West Brom vs Sunderland: The fight for the play-offs

England, Championship, Saturday, April 5th, 12:30 (UK)

It’s fourth v sixth in the Championship on Saturday lunchtime when Tony Mowbray welcomes one of his former sides to The Hawthorns. Not only do we have two sides good for cards battling for a play-off spot, but we also have a referee who can lose control. The perfect storm for cards! 

The Baggies average just shy of two cards per game on home turf this season, while the Black Cats are at the 2.3 mark. Similar to the earlier match pick, I’m heading towards the 20+ booking points for each team market, which is at a rather attractive even-money.

Since Mowbray returned to the Baggies dugout, they’ve hit this line in four of seven home games, including team totals of 45, 20 and 65. More on one of those in a second.

Sunderland have landed 20+ bp in 13 of their away games, including in nine of their last 11 road trips. That sequence sees totals of 45 at Sheffield Utd, 20 at Burnley, 30 at Middlesbrough, 60 at Leeds and 20 at Coventry. All sides in the promotion and play-off picture! 

With some of the numbers Regis Le Bris’ men have hit in those away games against sides in a similar position to themselves, and in this case West Brom, we have to anticipate a few cards.

There might not have been any shown by Bobby Madley in the reverse fixture. But last season’s meetings ended with 70 booking points (a 60-10 spilt to WBA) and the clash here at The Hawthorns saw 95 bp – a 65-30 split, again to WBA. 

Anticipate Cards

I touched upon the referee above about how his demeanour can see him lose control. Tom Nield is averaging around four cards per match, nothing out of the ordinary there. And neither is the fact he’s shown 20+ bp to each team in 11 of his 23 middles. 

But he’s had a couple of run-ins with the Baggies this season. He showed 30 bp to each team when he oversaw West Brom’s goalless draw with Burnley. 

Another of his West Brom games saw carnage at the full-time whistle when Sheffield Wednesday came to the Midlands. That saw Nield send Kyle Bartley off after the match but it still produced 20 bp to each team in the 90, so it’s two out of two when he’s been involved with them.

Another positive is that Nield’s only Sunderland game saw them win 2-1 in a game at Luton in October, which ended with a 40-20 cards split to the Black Cats. Another six cards brandished!

To bring it to the present day, the official took charge of Wycombe vs Shrewsbury in League One on Tuesday night. Guess what? Six more yellows and a lovely 30 each split.

If this match reaches boiling point, it could well become a tough one for Nield to control. With their play-off places at stake and some decent numbers in recent weeks, I’ll take the 20+ each.

• Selection: 20+ booking points each team (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.0
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 8/10

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