The Cards Column Tips: All roads lead to the Championship

Watford’s home win over Derby produced 50 booking points to deliver Matt Kirby a 1.80 winner in last weekend’s Cards Column. Leyton Orient went agonisingly close to their line, having picked up 20 booking points in 52 minutes but nothing late in their game with Birmingham.

Now Matt is back, and he’s cast his eye over multiple angles in the Championship, with his two match and player picks. 

• Plymouth vs Stoke City: Over 3 cards and a card each second half
• Oxford vs Preston: Mads Frokjaer-Jensen To Be Booked
• Burnley vs Blackburn: Over 0.5 Burnley cards in each half

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Who brought Charles a new yellow card? 

Bitter rivals Man Utd and Liverpool clash at Old Trafford on Sunday as the Reds look to maintain their 100% start. Anthony Taylor is in charge and he’s shown two cards in two games after his shock blank last weekend.

At the other end of the spectrum is Charles Breakspear. He’s eagerly brandished 15 yellows in two matches and is in charge of Gillingham’s home game with Chesterfield. While Seb Stockbridge gets a League One Yorkshire derby between Steve Evans’ Rotherham and Huddersfield. The ref has shown six cards in both of his outings thus far.

I’ve forgotten to mention it, but for the data charts, give me a follow on Twitter/X – @m_kirby95. That’s where I’ll post the images with all the figures and first/second-half splits. 

Plymouth vs Stoke: The return of Schuey

England, Championship, Saturday, August 31st, 15:00 (UK)

Let’s start with something of a friendly rivalry after Stoke pinched Steven Schumacher from Plymouth last December. 

As a Stoke fan, I found April’s meeting – the first with Schuey at Stoke’s helm – very amusing. Not just for the visiting Pilgrim supporters booing every member of the backroom staff from fitness coach to goalkeeping coach – there’s a first time to witness something!

Then the 90 minutes that followed. The Potters ran out comfortable 3-0 winners to ease their relegation fears. But that game saw Bobby Madley produce seven yellows – four of which came for a skirmish in the first half.

This is Schumacher’s first return to Home Park since leaving, so there’s a chance there might be a bit of an edge to it, which makes it great news for us card backers. 

I’m not going to lie, my eyes lit up when I saw the line for over three cards priced at 1.72. I was expecting a line of at least four or more. Even the Asian Line of over four cards at 2.10 might be worth taking.

However, if you followed me last season, you know I have a bit of a staple bet, and that’s what I’m turning to here. If you’re new, this is how the Bet Builder should look in your betslip using these three markets:

• Over 3 match cards
• Over 0 cards in the 2nd half for Plymouth 
• Over 0 cards in the 2nd half for Stoke

That comes out at an enticing 2.25. For a start, there’s a bit of an edge to the game, plus neither side have made brilliant starts to the season – Plymouth are yet to win, while Stoke have fallen to defeats in their last two. 

Last weekend, Plymouth had two men dismissed in their draw at QPR, taking them to eight yellows and two reds in their opening three league games. While Stoke have been consistent, receiving two cautions in all three games. 

That’s always a solid foundation for this bet. So, let’s add referee Oli Langford into the mix.

The whistler showed six yellows in his opening game before four more in last weekend’s South Wales derby. 

Those games have produced second-half card counts of three (1-2) and four (2-2), which gives encouragement for this punt. Basically, it’s two from two when Langford has been in charge.

And if you want to go a step further, I’ll cast my mind back to March and my restricted view at Elland Road. Leeds beat Stoke 1-0, with the second half seeing Langford dismiss Potters sub Ben Pearson and caution Ilia Gruev, again an example of the referee bringing home this bet.

Both sides need an early season points boost, plus there’ll be some hostility in the stands aimed at the returning Schumacher. If that boils over onto the pitch, make the most of it and take either this pick or the Asian Card Line, where you’ll get a return if there are exactly four.

• Selection: Over 3 cards and each team card in the second half (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.25
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Mads Frokjear-Jensen To Be Booked: Mads by name, mad by nature

England, Championship, Saturday, August 31st, 15:00 (UK)

Preston and Ryan Lowe agreed to mutually part ways after their opening defeat against Sheffield Utd. Lowe was replaced by Paul Heckingbottom and the new gaffer seemed to spark something from his players last weekend.

The Lilywhites beat Luton 1-0, but it was the fact they had six yellows, which drew my eye to them. It was quite startling as the referee was Dean Whitestone, who I have as one of the more laid-back and lower-card issuers. 

So, with North End having seen 10 yellows across their three games and sitting second in the foul charts (16), I thought I’d dig into potential perpetrators for their visit to Oxford.

Bet365 are the only player card market available at the time of writing, so I had a quick look at that. And just like last season, a lot of Preston players are chalked up at short prices.

But when I looked at the stats and the prices, there was one man who stood out.

That is Mads Frokjaer-Jensen, who is priced 5.50 to be booked, and is one of Preston’s biggest-priced outfield players for this trip to the Kassam. But I’m not sure how it’s that price on the bare data.

He has been employed in a couple of different positions already this season. But in Heckingbottom’s first game last weekend, the Dane slotted into LCM. 

In his 154 minutes of Championship football this season, the midfielder averages three fouls per game – only Jordan Clark (3.5) and Josh Brownhill (3.3) average more. 

Those three games have seen him commit 2, 4 and 3 fouls. What’s more, Frokjaer-Jensen has been carded in his last two outings – against Swansea and Luton. After all of that, I feel the 5.50 is well worth taking. 

The hosts Oxford managed to draw three cards from Norwich on the opening day to suggest they are a side that wins fouls. While you don’t really need me to introduce the referee…drum roll, please…it’s Keith Stroud! 

The veteran official averaged 5.2 cards per game in the 2023/24 season and showed 40+ booking points in 79% of his matches. He was excellent last term despite a slow start this season – his two league outings have seen two and four cards.

But given there’s a man likely to be in the engine room who averages three fouls per game, the 5.50 on him to be booked is more than appealing.

• Selection: Mads Frokjaer-Jensen To Be Booked
• Best Odds: 5.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Burnley vs Blackburn: Clarets to draw claret in Lancs derby?

England, Championship, Saturday, August 31st, 12:30 (UK)

Now, you may want to get the aftertimer klaxon out. For this bet, I’m putting forward an angle I looked at last weekend but for one reason and another, I swerved it. 

For what it’s worth, the angle did land, and the good news is we get the same price this week. Plus, the additional spice of this being a Lancashire derby.

The bet is quite simply Burnley to pick up a card in each half. To show you what I mean about their card splits, here are their card times:

• Luton away: 43rd (FH), 59th (SH) & 62nd (SH)
• Cardiff home: 42nd (FH) & 59th (SH)
• Sunderland away: 9th (FH), 51st (SH) & 83rd (SH)

As you can see, three games played with this bet having a 100% strike rate. A lot had been made of their free-scoring nature before last weekend’s defeat, but here’s the interesting point.

Scott Parker’s side sit top of the Championship foul charts, recording an average of 18.3 per 90. That’s ample opportunity for the referee in this derby, Tony Harrington, to caution those in the claret and blue shirts. 

Blackburn’s opponents this season have seen Derby bring home this bet, with cards in the 11th and 82nd minutes. While on their visit to Norwich, the Canaries picked up two yellows before the break and nothing after the interval.

I take cup games with a pinch of salt as there’s an additional bit of leniency applied. But it’s worth pointing out that League One Blackpool picked up yellows in the 20th and 75th minute of their shock win at Ewood Park on Tuesday.

As mentioned, Select Group 1 arbiter Tony Harrington is in charge. His sole outing was Aston Villa’s win at West Ham which saw three cards – two in the first 31 minutes before one in second-half stoppage-time. 

Last season’s numbers show him averaging four cards per 90, with him showing 40+ booking points in 56% of his matches.

And of course, this is a derby, so bragging rights to claim, which hopefully the players utilise to create a bit of needle. It’s the first meeting of the sides since the 2022/23 season, where their two games produced 10 cards. So more of the same, please! 

• Selection: Burnley to get a card in each half (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.15
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

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