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Mixed martial arts The Cards Column Tips: A Championship hat-trick
Our resident cards and booking expert Matt Kirby is on hand to preview this weekend’s referee appointments and share his data.
The Premier League might return after a weekend off for the FA Cup fifth round, but Matt has got three picks from the Championship, including an intriguing player selection.
In this article:
- Derby vs Blackburn: Over 3.5 Asian Cards
- Plymouth v Sheffield Wednesday: Maksym Talovierov To Be Booked
- Portsmouth vs Leeds: Over 3.5 cards
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Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Card-shy or card-happy arbiters?
After being appointed to next weekend’s League Cup final, John Brooks will take charge of Spurs v Bournemouth. Chris Kavanagh is tasked with the game at the City Ground between third-place Nottingham Forest and Man City, who are chasing them in fourth.
Anthony Taylor is the man in the middle at Old Trafford. But will he turn up and show plenty of cards like last weekend or have his seventh clean sheet of the league season?
In the Championship, card-shy David Webb has Mark Robins’ return to in-form Coventry, when Stoke visit. There are also outings in the second tier for Adam Herczeg and Ruebyn Ricardo.
Select Group 2 pair Leigh Doughty and Bobby Madley find themselves in League Two. James Durkin is one to note for his recent streak of cards. He has Bradford’s trip to Gillingham. Meanwhile, a relegation battle in League One between Wigan and Cambridge will be overseen by another card-happy official in Matt Corlett.
As usual, give Matt a follow on X – @m_kirby95 – for all the ref data and charts.
Derby vs Blackburn: The John Eustace derby
England, Championship, Saturday, March 8th, 15:00 (UK)
Let’s start back in August. The first Friday night of the season saw Blackburn run out 4-2 winners over Derby. John Eustace was in charge of Rovers, but roll time forward to present day, and he’s upped sticks from Ewood Park and headed to his former club Derby.
Whether there’s any ill-feeling towards Eustace, we’ll find out as this game unfolds on Saturday. But given his parting shots around a lack of ambition, then some in Rovers shirts will want to prove a point, especially against a relegation-threatened opponent.
This just has the makings of a scrappy, cagey game. Derby haven’t scored in their last six home games since Boxing Day, with a goalless draw and four 1-0 defeats in that sequence.
Blackburn are hardly fluent in front of goal either. In Valerien Ismael’s first game against Norwich last weekend, it took until after 85 minutes for the first shot on target before coming to life somewhat with a red card and ending 1-1.
That saw some interesting challenges and even collisions – if that’s a kind turn of phrase after Dominic Hyam’s clash with Angus Gunn!
With this likely to be an attritional game, I’ve looked towards the foul charts. Blackburn rank second at 12.7 with the Rams not far behind on 12. Those sort of figures make me believe that this game will see plenty of referee Andrew Kitchen.
He was one of last season’s lowest card-issuers across the whole Football League. But this campaign has been slightly better with his 3.9 cards per game average.
Kitchen has taken charge of each side once this season. Both games ended with four cards so I’m more than happy to take the 2.0 available for over 3.5 Asian cards – it just looks a low line!
The ref has shown 4+ cards in 62% of his league games, with his last three in all comps seeing 5, 4 & 5. So, he can brandish them when called upon!
Rovers top the charts for yellows in away games at 2.8, with Derby at 1.9 across the campaign, which is a solid foundation for the teams to pick up at least four cards. And in Ismael’s first Blackburn game last weekend, they picked up three, so might be a bit more combative under him.
If this gets heated, there’ll have to be a few cards. I just feel this 3.5 line is on the low side all things considered, so will take the overs. It did cop on the opening night with four yellows!
One man who could find himself in hot water is Derby’s Ryan Nyambe, who could start right-back. He’s a huge 7.0 to be booked with bet365, and saw yellow in the Rams’ last home game against Millwall. He could also be in direct competition with the tricky Augustus Kargbo, who drew a card from Norwich full-back Kellen Fisher last Saturday.
- Selection: Over 3.5 Asian Cards (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.0
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
Maksym Talovierov To Be Booked: Caught out by too much Gass
England, Championship, Saturday, March 8th, 15:00 (UK)
I’m sticking in the Championship for the player pick, where another side battling relegation have home advantage. This time it’s Plymouth, who welcome Sheffield Wednesday to Home Park.
Nobody expected the Pilgrims to go to Man City and score in last weekend’s FA Cup tie. But that’s what giant Maksym Talovierov did. His first-half header gave them a shock lead, although they couldn’t hold on.
The Ukrainian defender has only made six Championship appearances, but he’s seen three yellows, albeit they’ve come in his last four league games. With a record like that it’s easy to make a case for him to be carded here.
But I’m hoping Danny Rohl deploys Djeidi Gassama down the left to expose Talovierov, who’s been playing on the right side of a back three.
If that’s the case, the nimble Gassama could find himself on the receiving end of some rough treatment. His quick feet nipping the ball away as the Ukrainian steams into one of his typical robust challenges.
Rohl has used Gassama in a few positions of late, which makes the direct match-up harder to predict. But Gassama has drawn 2+ fouls in eight of his last 10 in the league, so if he’s on the left, then either our man or Matthew Sorinola would be in the line of fire.
Talovierov is chalked up at 5.0 for a card with bet365, which for a player with three in his last four league starts, looks huge.
However, the caveat is referee Oli Langford. He’s only averaging 3.7 cards per league game this term, which is at the lower end. His most recent Plymouth match saw five yellows, four going to Pilgrims players in their 2-2 draw at Sunderland in January.
Despite the referee, the big Ukrainian might just find himself caught out by the agile Gassama. So, time to make a plea to Rohl – play Gassama on the left!
- Selection: Maksym Talovierov to be booked (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 5.0
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Portsmouth vs Leeds: Jones to hit the mark once more
England, Championship, Sunday, March 9th, 12:00 (UK)
Leeds failed to produce a late show in their draw against West Brom last Saturday. That game didn’t see a card, so you might think it’s strange to go for cards when they visit Fratton Park on Sunday.
Despite that, Portsmouth picked up four cards alone in their defeat at Luton last weekend – that saw six in total!
Pompey average 2.4 cards per game this season, which is the joint-second most. Plus, they draw 2.1 from their visitors, which is an extra layer to this game.
And if they want to ruffle a few Leeds feathers, then they’re going to have to get stuck in. One thing they do is fly out of the traps. At Luton last Saturday, they picked up three cards in the first half showing their tenacity.
If they repeat that, we should be on for a decent card total from the hosts alone. So, the fact that Select Group 1 ref Rob Jones is appointed to this one catches my eye.
After taking charge of a local Sunday league game last week, it’s back to his bread-and-butter, where Jones has shown 4+ cards in 16 of his 18 league games (89%).
That’s a huge figure, so to get 2.0 for 4+ cards here looks too good to turn down! It’s not a line we usually get for a referee with those sorts of numbers.
Jones has only done two games in the second tier this season, but they’ve seen totals of four and six, so he continues to be strict despite the lower level. And he’s not a referee who doesn’t mind showing early cards, averaging 2.1 in the first half, so he could get us off to a flyer!
Eleven of Portsmouth’s 17 home league games have hit that 4+ card threshold, including four of their last five. And if you look at when these sides met on the opening weekend, there were six yellows – three to each team and three in each half.
A repeat of that total would be perfect. So, with a referee who has shown 4+ cards in 89% of his matches, I’ll just have to take over 3.5 cards in this one.
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